U.S. Export Volume Declines as Trade Deficit Widens

November 6th, 2014 T. Murchison Leave a comment

Washington, D.C. – The volume of U.S. exports unexpectedly hit a five-month low in September, widening the trade deficit by 7.6 percent to $40.3 billion, according to the U.S. Department of Commerce (DOC).

The DOC said that September’s shortfall is bigger than the $38.1 billion deficit that the government had forecasted in its recently published advance gross domestic product (GDP) estimate for the third quarter.

As a result, the 3.5 percent annual growth pace it estimated “will probably be trimmed” when the government publishes its revisions later this month.

At the same time, the agency revised August’s trade deficit to $39.99 billion from a previously reported $40.11 billion shortfall. When adjusted for inflation, the trade deficit increased to $50.76 billion from $48.22 billion.

Trade was reported to have contributed only 1.32 percentage points to U.S. GDP growth.

Exports in September fell 1.5 percent to $195.59 billion, the lowest since April, while exports to the European Union fell 6.5 percent and those to China slipped 3.2 percent.

Transpacific shipments to Japan tumbled 14.7 percent with declines also seen in the volume of exports to both Mexico and Brazil.

Overall imports were unchanged in September as petroleum imports hit their lowest level since November 2009. A domestic energy boom has seen the United States reduce its dependence on foreign oil, helping to temper the trade deficit.

Consumer goods imports, however, were the highest on record, as were non-petroleum imports.

Imports from Canada were the highest since July 2008, while inbound shipments from China also hit an all-time record boosting the U.S. trade deficit with that country gap to $35.6 billion, the highest on record.

11/06/2014

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WTO Downgrades Trade Growth Forecasts

September 24th, 2014 P. Livingston Leave a comment

Geneva, Switzerland – The World Trade Organization has reduced its forecast for world trade growth in 2014 to 3.1 percent, a significant drop from the 4.6 percent it made in April.

In addition, it also cut its estimate for 2015 to 4.0 percent from its previous 5.3 percent forecast.

The downgrade “comes in response to weaker-than-expected GDP growth and muted import demand in the first half of 2014, particularly in natural resource exporting regions such as South and Central America,” the global trade group said.

Beyond the specific downward revisions, it said, “risks to the forecast remain predominantly on the downside, as global growth remains uneven and as geopolitical tensions and risks have risen,” while “international institutions have significantly revised their GDP forecasts after disappointing economic growth in the first half of the year,” said WTO Director-General Roberto Azevêdo.

When the last forecast was released in April 2014, conditions for stronger trade growth seemed to be falling into place after a two year slump that saw world merchandise trade grow just 2.2 percent on average during 2012–13, with leading indicators at the time pointing to an upturn in developed economies and Europe in particular.

“Although growth has strengthened somewhat in 2014, it has remained unsteady,” the WTO said with output in the US during the first quarter of this year falling by –2.1 percent, annualized rates and in the second quarter in Germany by –0.6 percent, “sapping global import demand.”

China’s GDP growth also slowed from 7.7 percent in 2013 to 6.1 percent in the first quarter of this year before rebounding in the second. The slow first quarter contributed to weak exports in trading partners.

“As a result of these and other factors, global trade stagnated in the first half of 2014, as the gradual recovery of import demand in developed countries was offset by declines in developing countries,” the WTO said.

Growth in trade and output “is expected to be somewhat stronger in the second half of 2014 as governments and central banks may provide policy support to boost growth, and as idiosyncratic factors such as harsh weather conditions in the US and a sales tax rise in Japan weighted on trade in the first half of this year begin to fade.”

However, the WTO said, “several risk factors on the horizon have the potential to produce worse economic outcomes.”

For example, it said, tensions between the European Union and the US on the one hand and the Russian Federation on the other over Ukraine have already resulted in trade sanctions on certain agricultural commodities, and the number of products affected could widen if the crisis persists.

At the same time, the continuing conflict in the Middle East “is also stoking uncertainty, and could lead to a spike in oil prices if the security of oil supplies is threatened.”

This is the moment, he said, “to remind ourselves that trade can play a positive role here. Cutting trade costs and broadening trade opportunities can be a key ingredient to reversing this trend,” said the WTO’s Azevêdo.

09/24/2014

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USITC Rules on ‘Oil Country Tubular Goods’ Imports

September 2nd, 2014 Haylle Sok Leave a comment

Washington, DC –The US International Trade Commission (USITC) has determined that “a US industry is materially injured or threatened with material injury” by the import of certain oil country tubular goods (OCTG) from six countries.

The ruling on OCTG from India, Korea, Taiwan, Turkey, Ukraine, and Vietnam gives the US Department of Commerce the go-ahead to impose tariffs as high as 118 percent on the affected OCTG imports.

The determination does not impact imports of the product from the Philippines and Thailand.

OCTG imports from Saudi Arabia were dropped from the earlier complaint, which was brought in 2013 by US steel companies after imports of the pipes used in the oil and gas industry surged and foreign manufacturers sought to cash in on booming US shale gas drilling.

Seventeen US companies including United States Steel; Maverick Tube Corporation; Boomerang Tube; Energex Tube; Northwest Pipe Co.; Welded Tube, USA; and Tejas Tubular Products filed the original complaint.

The US used 7 million tons of OCTG, valued at $10.1 billion in 2013, accounting for nearly two-thirds of the US market, according to the American Iron and Steel Institute in Washington, DC.

Leading sources of OCTG last year were Korea, Canada, Argentina, Japan, Mexico, and Germany, the trade group said.

Foreign manufacturers responded to the determination saying countered that they do not supply enough pipe to threaten the US industry, and instead blamed the lower prices on US producers increasing supply.

09/02/2014

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New Seafood Farm Planned Off US West Coast

August 25th, 2014 Haylle Sok Leave a comment

Los Angeles, CA – A project is underway to develop the US West Coast’s first commercial shellfish “farm” in federal waters to grow mussels and scallops in their natural environment under closely monitored conditions to produce a high-quality product well-suited for export to markets all over the world.

Organized by Catalina Sea Ranch and planned on 100 acres located between the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach and Catalina Island, the project is a joint effort with the Southern California Marine Institute (SCMI), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, several non-profits and a number of private sector companies including Verizon.

As the project is planned in government-controlled waters, approval was sought from the US Army Corps of Engineers and California Coastal Commission, both of which gave the project a green light last January.

Mussels, scallops and several other varieties of bivalves, as well as shellfish including spiny lobsters, grow naturally off the Southern California coast. The Catalina Sea ranch plan calls for the SCMI to spawn the bivalves in an aquatic “nursery, where they’ll be held until they mature before being suspended on lines 30 feet below the surface to feed to filtered phytoplankton under constant monitoring for up to eight months before they’re harvested.

According to Catalina Sea Ranch, the 100-acre farm could produce as much as 2.5 million pounds of high-quality shellfish annually with buyers reportedly already lined-up to sell out the product for the next three years.

Much of what the “farm” produces will be tagged for export to overseas markets.

Currently, with the US importing some 91 percent of the seafood it consumes, the company feels that should the project prove to be a success that’s replicated, the US could stop importing shellfish and actually be an exporter of the seafood.

08/25/2014

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Tips On Stemming the Flood Of Counterfeit Goods

August 15th, 2014 Haylle Sok Leave a comment

Los Angeles, CA – Despite significant government efforts, China remains the world’s primary source of counterfeit goods, constituting 84 percent of shipment seizures in the US in 2012.

Experts, in fact, predict that the online trade of counterfeit goods in China will surpass the physical trade of such goods in the next two to three years.

The problem seems too vast and overwhelming to surmount, however, says Bob Youill, senior managing director in the Global Risk and Investigations practice of New York-based FTI Consulting, “doing so will never be easy, but it can be done” if companies take the appropriate steps.

In an article published this week in the FTI Journal, Youill, an acknowledged authority on product piracy, makes several suggestions on what US-based exporters, importers, retailers and manufacturers can do to stop the production, distribution and sale of counterfeit goods.

First, he says, declare your intellectual property. An effective anti-counterfeiting strategy for China, he says, “begins with begins with registering the relevant intellectual property rights in China, as Beijing doesn’t automatically recognize IP rights registered overseas.”

That done, writes Youill, “quantify the risk to your brand with in-house counsel working directly with key stakeholders to review the company’s markets inside and outside China and organize those markets into those that must be protected and those that are less important to focus on.”

Next, it needs to be understood that the primary responsibility for managing counterfeiting will rest mostly with in-house counsel and will involve representatives from different corporate functions, including a PR lead, external consultants, and internal stakeholders. To achieve that goal, “build your anti-counterfeit team.”

When considering tackling organized counterfeiting operations, a “best course of action” should be strategized that carefully analyzes various tactics that could include ‘street sweeps,’ Customs watches, administrative action, and civil or criminal proceedings.

Lastly, says Youill, “There are a number of risks to manage when dealing with Chinese authorities, such as controlling sensitive corporate information, fulfilling government requests for documents, overseeing internal reporting and complying with reporting rules. So, learn how to work with them.”

08/15/2014

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Boxed Imports Expected to Reach All-Time High

August 13th, 2014 Haylle Sok Leave a comment

Washington, DC – Import volume at major US container ports is expected to hit an all-time record in August as retailers concerned about the lack of a West Coast longshoremen’s contract rush to bring holiday season merchandise into the country, according to the latest monthly Global Port Tracker report.

“The negotiations appear to be going well but each week that goes by makes the situation more critical as the holiday season approaches,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said.

Retailers, he said, “are making sure they are stocked up so shoppers won’t be affected regardless of what happens at the ports.”

Import volume at the ports covered by the Global Port Tracker report, just released by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and business consultancy Hackett Associates, is expected to total 1.54 million containers this month.

That’s the highest monthly volume since NRF began tracking import volume in 2000, topping a previous record of 1.53 million set in July and unusually high numbers seen this spring as retailers began importing merchandise early in anticipation of this summer’s contract talks.

The contract between the Pacific Maritime Association (PMA) and the International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU) expired on July 1 with dockworkers pledging to remain on the job as both sides continue to negotiate a new agreement.

Both sides report that the on-going contract negotiations have been “productive” with the NRF urging both sides to avoid any disruptions that could affect the flow of seasonal back-to-school or holiday merchandise.

US ports followed by the report handled 1.48 million TEUs (Twenty-foot Equivalent Units) in June, the latest month for which after-the-fact numbers are available. That was down 0.38 percent from May but up 9.1 percent from June 2013. One TEU is one 20-foot cargo container or its equivalent.

July was estimated at 1.53 million TEU, up 5.8 percent from the same month last year, and August is forecast at 1.54 million TEU, up 3.6 percent from last year. September is forecast at 1.48 million TEU, up 2.8 percent from last year; October also at 1.48 million TEU, up 3.3 percent; November at 1.37 million TEU, up 2 percent; and December at 1.34 million TEU, up 2.1 percent.

Those numbers would bring 2014 to a total of 17.1 million TEU, an increase of 5.2 percent over 2013’s 16.2 million. Imports in 2012 totaled 15.8 million. The first half of the 2014 totaled 8.3 million TEU, up 6.9 percent over last year.

The import numbers come as NRF is forecasting 3.6 percent sales growth in 2014. Cargo volume does not correlate directly with sales but is a barometer of retailers’ expectations.

Hackett Associates CEO Ben Hackett said the increases in volume reflect both improvements in the economy and retailers importing merchandise early because of the contract negotiations.

“US GDP has increased in 11 out of the last 12 quarters, confirming that we are in a sustained period of expansion,” Hackett said. “A significant portion of the strong upswing in imports has been due to the labor negotiations, with importers moving up shipments just in case.”

The Global Port Tracker covers container activity at the ports of Los Angeles, Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma on the US West Coast; New York/New Jersey, Hampton Roads, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades and Miami on the US East Coast, and Houston on the US Gulf Coast.

08/13/2014

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US Trade Deficit Surges to Two-Year High

June 9th, 2014 Haylle Sok Leave a comment

Washington, DC – The volume of US imports surged and exports declined in April, pushing the US trade deficit to a two-year high of $47.2 billion, according to the latest figures released by the US Department of Commerce.

The trade deficit for the month climbed by 6.9 percent from an upwardly revised March deficit of $44.2 billion with imports growing by 1.2 percent to an all-time high of $240.6 billion and exports falling for the fourth month in a row by a rate of 0.2 percent to $195.4 billion.

In 2013, the trade deficit declined by 11.4 percent to $476.4 billion. Some analysts feel the decline in exports can be pegged on the extreme cold weather in the eastern and southern US coupling with the continuing drought in California’s agricultural Central Valley to impact the country’s manufacturing capability and, at the same time, increase the volume of imported foodstuffs.

The same analysts, though, are guardedly forecasting a bounce back with economic growth reaching around 3 percent in the second half of the year as a boom in the nation’s energy sector could well narrow the trade gap. Stronger domestic petroleum production cut oil imports by 10.9 percent during the first quarter of the year, while oil imports in April fell 2.2 percent to $29.8 billion, while conditional US petroleum exports rose 3.1 percent to $11.8 billion.

The US trade deficit with the 28-member European Union hit a monthly record of $14 billion in April as imports from that region hit an all-time high, while the trade gap with China, the largest the US has with any trading partner, jumped 33.7 percent to $27.3 billion in April, the largest gap since January.

The US-China trade relationship has come under scrutiny on Capitol Hill with some lawmakers charging that Beijing is manipulating its currency to keep it undervalued against the dollar. That manipulation, they have said, makes imported Chinese goods cheaper in the US and American-made products more expensive in China.

06/09/2014

U.S. Export Volume Declines as Trade Deficit Widens

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