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U.S. Jobless Claims Surge by 22,000, Indicating Economic Resilience

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U.S. Jobless Claims Surge by 22,000, Indicating Economic Resilience

According to the latest data from the Labor Department, applications for U.S. jobless benefits surged by 22,000 to reach 242,000 for the week ending February 22. This report indicates that while there is a notable increase, the figures remain consistent with the healthy range observed over the past three years.

Read also: U.S. Jobless Claims Fall as Labor Market Remains Steady

Despite analysts’ projections of 220,000 new applications, the unexpected rise in jobless claims still falls within a stable labor market framework. The four-week average, a metric utilized to smooth out volatile weekly data, also experienced an uptick, rising by 8,500 to mark an average of 224,000. Concurrently, the total number of Americans currently receiving unemployment benefits decreased by 5,000, settling at 1.86 million for the week ending February 15.

The overall employment landscape, while showing short-term volatility, continues to exhibit resilience. According to IndexBox, jobless claims are a critical factor in assessing economic stability, laying the groundwork for understanding broader workforce trends in the U.S. economy.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform  

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U.S. Core Capital Goods Orders Surge in November Amid Economic Resilience

New orders for key U.S.-manufactured capital goods saw significant growth in November, bolstered by strong demand for machinery and signaling a robust economy as the year comes to a close. According to a report from the Commerce Department, shipments of these goods also experienced an uptick for the second consecutive month, following encouraging consumer spending data reported last week.

Read also: United States Sees Transport Container Imports Drop to $999M in 2023

The resilient performance of the economy has prompted the Federal Reserve to adjust its projections for interest rate cuts in 2025. Core capital goods orders, excluding defense and aircraft, climbed 0.7% after a slight dip of 0.1% in October, surpassing Reuters’ economists’ forecast of a 0.1% increase. Concurrently, shipments of these goods rose 0.5% following a 0.4% increase in the previous month, highlighting a sustained business investment trend.

While machinery orders experienced a substantial jump of 1.0%, contrasting declines were observed in sectors such as computers and electronic products. Specifically, the transportation equipment orders dropped 2.9%, heavily influenced by a 7.0% decrease in commercial aircraft orders, as reported by Boeing’s reduction from 63 to 49 orders in October.

The decline in aircraft orders poses concerns for business spending in equipment moving into the fourth quarter. Stephen Stanley, chief U.S. economist at Santander US Capital Markets, remarked on potential repercussions but noted that the strong rise in core capital goods orders could mitigate some negative impacts. Despite these challenges, the Atlanta Fed’s forecast for the fourth quarter GDP growth remains optimistic at 3.1%, matching the third quarter’s performance.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform  

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Lessons to Learn from East Asia’s Response to COVID-19

The proximity of the likes of Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Vietnam to China, the epicenter of the COVID-19 outbreak, meant initial forecasts of the virus’s impact were grim. Both public and economic health looked certain to be under serious threat. Yet in stark contrast to much of the Western world, these East Asian nations appear to have the situation under control.

Few to no new cases are being reported here from week to week, while figures continue to spike daily in Brazil, Russia, and elsewhere. But how have they done it, and what can the West learn from East Asia’s handling of the outbreak?

A fast and decisive response

The crucial element in East Asia’s early response – and one perhaps missing elsewhere – was speed. Taiwan, Vietnam, Singapore, Hong Kong, and South Korea all acted swiftly to ban or quarantine incoming visitors. Smart test and trace programs and widespread public mobilization have further contributed to success in limiting the advance of the disease. Taiwan in fact began monitoring the health of travelers on the very day China announced the discovery of the virus to the world.

Lessons learned from previous health crises

Hong Kong suffered the most deaths outside of mainland China During the SARS epidemic of 2002-2004, while Taiwan had the world’s highest mortality rate. Both nations in particular were driven by a desire to do better if and when another virus struck.

Despite a fumbled state response, Hong Kong’s residents began wearing masks almost universally and distributing sanitization supplies to areas in need. The Taiwanese government meanwhile was far better prepared than it had been almost two decades earlier, with public movement quickly curbed and hospital capacity under constant review.

Resilient economies

Investors monitoring global markets with online brokers such as Tickmill may find encouragement in East Asia’s economic response. Taiwan, for example, resisted a full lockdown, meaning that economic activity, while still stunted, has not suffered to the degree it has elsewhere. Residents have stayed at home more than they otherwise would but are buying online while continuing to work. In Hong Kong meanwhile, life is returning to normal, with many public and private spaces back welcoming visitors. Success in containing the disease should provide a more stable foundation for economic recovery.

Takeaways for the West

There are important lessons for the West to take away should another disease spread in the future.

Countries will need to strengthen the medical supply capacity closer to home while working with producers to find ways to plan ahead, respond quickly, and save lives. East Asia’s response has also demonstrated the potential of digital strategy and how, in the context of a pandemic, it can monitor and protect society en masse.