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Lessons to Learn from East Asia’s Response to COVID-19

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Lessons to Learn from East Asia’s Response to COVID-19

The proximity of the likes of Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Vietnam to China, the epicenter of the COVID-19 outbreak, meant initial forecasts of the virus’s impact were grim. Both public and economic health looked certain to be under serious threat. Yet in stark contrast to much of the Western world, these East Asian nations appear to have the situation under control.

Few to no new cases are being reported here from week to week, while figures continue to spike daily in Brazil, Russia, and elsewhere. But how have they done it, and what can the West learn from East Asia’s handling of the outbreak?

A fast and decisive response

The crucial element in East Asia’s early response – and one perhaps missing elsewhere – was speed. Taiwan, Vietnam, Singapore, Hong Kong, and South Korea all acted swiftly to ban or quarantine incoming visitors. Smart test and trace programs and widespread public mobilization have further contributed to success in limiting the advance of the disease. Taiwan in fact began monitoring the health of travelers on the very day China announced the discovery of the virus to the world.

Lessons learned from previous health crises

Hong Kong suffered the most deaths outside of mainland China During the SARS epidemic of 2002-2004, while Taiwan had the world’s highest mortality rate. Both nations in particular were driven by a desire to do better if and when another virus struck.

Despite a fumbled state response, Hong Kong’s residents began wearing masks almost universally and distributing sanitization supplies to areas in need. The Taiwanese government meanwhile was far better prepared than it had been almost two decades earlier, with public movement quickly curbed and hospital capacity under constant review.

Resilient economies

Investors monitoring global markets with online brokers such as Tickmill may find encouragement in East Asia’s economic response. Taiwan, for example, resisted a full lockdown, meaning that economic activity, while still stunted, has not suffered to the degree it has elsewhere. Residents have stayed at home more than they otherwise would but are buying online while continuing to work. In Hong Kong meanwhile, life is returning to normal, with many public and private spaces back welcoming visitors. Success in containing the disease should provide a more stable foundation for economic recovery.

Takeaways for the West

There are important lessons for the West to take away should another disease spread in the future.

Countries will need to strengthen the medical supply capacity closer to home while working with producers to find ways to plan ahead, respond quickly, and save lives. East Asia’s response has also demonstrated the potential of digital strategy and how, in the context of a pandemic, it can monitor and protect society en masse.

reits

Impact of the Coronavirus Crisis in the American REITs

Victor Kuznetsov, Managing Director of Imperial Fund, examines how US real estate investment trusts are weathering the COVID-19 storm.

Real estate investment trusts (REITs) have always been, historically, a classic of dividend investment through the Buy & Hold formula, which has allowed both retail, institutional and investment fund investors to have periodic cash flows, which complement their pensions in some cases, and that they increase their profit accounts in others.

In general, the REITs were distributing a dividend that usually ranges from the most “modest” of Realty Income (O) of 1.5-2% per year to that of other mortgage REITs such as Annaly or Agnc, whose dividends they reach 8-9% per year.

Nevertheless, the health crisis is practically causing an economic emergency, in which almost all the REITs are seeing their prices decrease, anticipating the fall of the real estate market and the entry into the technical recession.

At Imperial Fund one of the fundamental aspects in this investment sector, which seeks to achieve attractive risk-adjusted returns by exploiting inefficiencies in the residential and commercial real estate lending market, is diversification, which makes it possible to reduce both the beta (risk) of our portfolio, without jeopardizing the return on investment.

General and Sectoral Real Estate REITs

In these historical moments in which the coronavirus crisis is hitting strongly all investment portfolios, including those of institutional investors even though they use hedging instruments, the losses due to the drop in the price of the listing are being high, in view of the prospect of  business downturn and recession across the United States.

Observing the different sectoral types of REITs, and among the most penalized, and which have more possibilities to continue distributing a dividend without decreasing it and recovering in presumably a shorter period, we can distinguish:

Realty Income (O): It is the classic of investment in the field of REITs, it is considered an aristocrat of the dividend, and it distributes a monthly dividend, which in turn allows increasing the utility of compound interest. Its price has decreased from $84.92 to approximately $54, although we should not forget that in the 2008 crisis, its price dropped to $17.

Annaly Capital Management (NLY): It is the mortgage with the largest capitalization in the United States. Its price per share has decreased from $10.50 to $6.70. It is clearly being harmed by the global alarm situation, but that it is another diversified company that allows to systematically cover the risk.

Omega Healthcare Investors (OHI): It is another of the classic and most important REITs in the residential sector for the elderly. Its price has fallen from $45.22 to $17.50. The only explanation from the point of view of the fundamental analysis is that the market is picking up the loss of potential clients in their residence, because it is one of the most punished REITs, although obviously and in the worst case the replacement rate, in both the United States and England is clearly guaranteed.

The current situation should not provoke investors to believe that we are not able to think about the future, a future that, as has happened with previous crises, will always bring something positive, and will reward investors who trust in those companies that have adequate diversification, distribute a sustainable dividend, and are able to adapt to any situation that may arise.

At the present time, we may have entered a general downward curve on the stock market, and the aforementioned share price of REITs will drop further still, but they should be on the investment radar as a possibility in the future not far away.

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Imperial Fund is a mortgage investment fund formed in 2014 and headquartered in Hollywood, FL. Imperial seeks to achieve attractive risk-adjusted returns by exploiting inefficiencies in the residential and commercial real estate lending market.

crisis

How Can Businesses Prepare For A Worldwide Crisis? 4 Tips To Survive.

The coronavirus that emerged in China is now shaking the world economy – including some major U.S. companies – and stoking fears of a global recession.

But, as companies go about mitigating damage, there are lessons they can learn to be better prepared for another rare worldwide crisis, says Hitendra Chaturvedi, a professor at the Supply Chain Department of W.P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University and an expert on global supply chain sustainability and strategy.

“The coronavirus is an abnormal occurrence,” Chaturvedi says. “Businesses cannot completely insulate themselves from such events, but they can certainly reduce risk so it will hurt but not be life-threatening. The whole idea is, what is the strategic insurance policy against such unexpected events, and what is the cost businesses are willing to bear?

“We have had risk mitigation and disaster recovery plans for data centers for decades now. Why should we not have the same for our manufacturing operations?”

Chaturvedi offers these suggestions for companies to prepare for a worldwide crisis that could affect their business:

Localize more inventory. “Holding inventory in multiple locations closer to your customers makes sense in many cases, even if it may be costlier than in other countries,” Chaturvedi says. “I think companies in the U.S. will start to keep more inventories here as a reaction to the coronavirus.”

Localize core manufacturing. “If your current business relies heavily on products being made in China, you’re probably concerned right now,” Chaturvedi says. “Consider having a manufacturing operation in the U.S., or at least part of your operations here, so even though the cost may be high, business survival will not be severely impacted. It’s another way for companies to have more control when events happen out of their control.”

Separate R&D from manufacturing locations in other countries. “If it makes sense to maintain your core manufacturing outside the U.S., keeping research and development work closer to home ensures your future product development does not get impacted,” Chaturvedi says.

Invest in new technology for transparency in supply chain and disaster simulation. “Blockchain can easily provide transparency across the supply chain, Chaturvedi says. “Get visibility across at least tier 1 and tier 2 suppliers.

The more you know, the better you will be at spotting trouble spots and handling a crisis. Moreover, investing in Artificial Intelligence-driven risk simulation models based on numerous factors, including a global pandemic, nature events, or political instabilities may be a prudent choice. Just as schools conduct fire drills, companies should conduct pandemic drills as part of their risk mitigation and disaster recovery plan.”

“Events such as a worldwide health crisis are a standalone business risk and an amplifier of vulnerabilities,” Chaturvedi says. “The coronavirus may serve as another reason for companies to reassess their supply chain exposure. We often get complacent after a crisis settles down, but businesses who prepare for the next time will be in a stronger position to respond and recover.”

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Hitendra Chaturvedi (https://wpcarey.asu.edu/people/profile/3541031) spent over 30 years in progressive technology leadership positions with Microsoft, Newgistics, E&Y e-Business and A.T. Kearney. Chaturvedi also built a $100 million software company in India, GreenDust, where he implemented proprietary reverse logistics software at Amazon, Flipkart (Walmart), Samsung, Panasonic and Whirlpool. A computer engineer with a master’s degree from Louisiana State University and an MBA from Southern Methodist University, Chaturvedi has been widely covered in the media and is a subject matter expert on global supply chain strategy, sustainable supply chains, reverse logistics, ecommerce, artificial intelligence and machine learning. Chaturvedi is now a professor at the Supply Chain Department of W.P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University.