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Oil Prices Forecasted to Enter Boom Cycle by 2035 Amid Rising Global Demand

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Oil Prices Forecasted to Enter Boom Cycle by 2035 Amid Rising Global Demand

The global oil market is on the brink of a significant upsurge in prices, anticipated to commence by the middle of the next decade due to sustained demand growth in markets like China, reports consultants Rapidan Energy Group. The advisory firm predicts that with the receding expectations of peaking global demand by 2030, the reality of a structurally short supply will become evident.

Read also: Saudi Arabia Slashes Oil Prices for Asian Markets Amid OPEC+ Delays

As spare capacity is projected to diminish drastically by 2035, oil prices could potentially enter a boom cycle. Interestingly, despite various scenarios evaluating the escalation of electric vehicles, world oil consumption is expected to grow continuously until 2050. Specifically, gasoline demand will persist through to 2035, with no apparent decline even in China, a primary driver of electric vehicle adoption.

Data from the IndexBox platform highlights the significant role China plays as the top oil import country, with values reaching USD 337.3 billion in 2023. Other leading import nations include the United States (USD 165.2 billion), India (USD 140.4 billion), South Korea (USD 86.5 billion), and Japan (USD 80.9 billion).

The oil market dynamics are further complicated by varying forecasts from major entities like the Vitol Group and the International Energy Agency, which foresee a stagnation in demand growth this decade due to a global pivot toward renewable energy sources. Rapidan’s report indicates short-term price reductions, possibly dropping to USD 55 a barrel owing to strong production from non-OPEC countries such as the U.S., Brazil, and Guyana. This situation might compel OPEC+ to either relinquish more market share or endure lower prices to force competitors out of the market, positioning the alliance in a difficult strategic dilemma.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform  

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 The World’s Top Import Markets for Petroleum Lubricating Oil and Grease

When it comes to the global market for petroleum lubricating oil and grease, certain countries stand out as key players in terms of import value. According to data from the IndexBox market intelligence platform, the following are the world’s top 10 import markets for petroleum lubricating oil and grease, based on their import values in 2023:

Read also: Import Markets for Crude Oil and Processed Petroleum

1. China – $641.3 Million USD

China emerges as the top import market for petroleum lubricating oil and grease, with an import value of $641.3 million USD in 2023. The country’s robust manufacturing sector and growing automotive industry are driving the demand for lubricating oil and grease.

2. Germany – $378.5 Million USD

Germany ranks second in terms of import value, with $378.5 million USD in imports of petroleum lubricating oil and grease in 2023. The country’s highly industrialized economy and advanced manufacturing sector are key factors contributing to its significant import volume.

3. Canada – $287.8 Million USD

Canada is another major import market for petroleum lubricating oil and grease, with an import value of $287.8 million USD in 2023. The country’s diverse economy and extensive transportation infrastructure drive the demand for lubricating oil and grease. 4. Mexico – $202.1 Million USD Mexico holds the fourth spot in the ranking, with $202.1 million USD in imports of petroleum lubricating oil and grease in 2023. The country’s growing automotive industry and expanding industrial sector are key drivers of its import volume.

5. Netherlands – $178.0 Million USD

The Netherlands is a significant import market for petroleum lubricating oil and grease, with an import value of $178.0 million USD in 2023. The country’s strategic location as a gateway to Europe and its well-developed logistics infrastructure contribute to its status as a key import destination.

6. Belgium – $165.7 Million USD

Belgium ranks sixth in the list of top import markets for petroleum lubricating oil and grease, with $165.7 million USD in imports in 2023. The country’s strong industrial base and access to key European markets make it an important hub for lubricating oil and grease imports.

7. Russia – $159.8 Million USD

Russia is also a notable import market for petroleum lubricating oil and grease, with an import value of $159.8 million USD in 2023. The country’s vast energy resources and thriving manufacturing sector drive the demand for lubricating oil and grease imports.

8. Italy – $158.8 Million USD

Italy ranks eighth in the global import market for petroleum lubricating oil and grease, with $158.8 million USD in imports in 2023. The country’s strong automotive industry and well-established manufacturing sector contribute to its import volume.

9. France – $156.8 Million USD

France is another key import market for petroleum lubricating oil and grease, with an import value of $156.8 million USD in 2023. The country’s advanced manufacturing sector and extensive transportation network drive the demand for lubricating oil and grease imports.

10. United States – $152.0 Million USD

The United States rounds out the top 10 import markets for petroleum lubricating oil and grease, with an import value of $152.0 million USD in 2023. The country’s diverse industrial base and widespread use of lubricating oil and grease in various sectors contribute to its significant import volume.

Overall, these top import markets play a crucial role in driving global demand for petroleum lubricating oil and grease. Their strong economies, advanced manufacturing sectors, and growing automotive industries make them key destinations for lubricant imports. As the global market continues to evolve, these countries are likely to remain vital players in the import of lubricating oil and grease.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform  

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A Sour Outlook for Q4: Crude Supply Cuts and Refinery Challenges

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies are tightening the crude oil supply. This follows OPEC’s 2022 strategy and will likely continue through the fourth quarter of 2023. The US sectors most heavily affected are farmers, construction companies, and transportation businesses. 

The benchmark Brent crude price surpassed $90 a barrel for the first time in September while 1.3 million of estimated barrels have been cut daily. Crude prices are at a 10-month high and the heavy refined fuels that ships, planes, and trucks rely upon have skyrocketed in price. Diesel is up 41% while jet fuel registered a 24% increase (year over year). The latter has been rising steadily since May and Spirit Airlines, American Airlines, and Delta Air Lines all suffered a slide in their respective stock prices. The US Global Jets exchange-traded fund also declined 19% over the last three months. 

OPEC crude oil production is at its lowest since August 2021. Global economic contraction had led to slumping oil prices prompting OPEC’s (and its allies) response as one of aggressive supply restraint. On the other end, output increases by Venezuela and Iran have been notable. Iranian production reached a nearly 6-year high at 2.76 million barrels per day and Venezuela hit a 5-year peak at 810,000 barrels per day. Relaxed US sanctions post the Russian invasion of Ukraine were the likely catalyst behind the production uptick. 

Apart from supply, the world’s capacity to make diesel is also driving prices northward. Refineries are the engine and the Middle East and Africa have experienced delayed refinery startups while European refiners are struggling to make enough trucking fuel. One sector that is thriving is US refiners. Phillips 66, Marathon Petroleum, and Valero Energy are trading at near-record highs. Healthy refining environments are in excellent condition based on tight supply and ever-increasing demand. 

At a macro level rising energy prices pose serious risks for consumer inflation. Everything from meal deliveries to everyday goods and services is affected. Contracting inventories will likely maintain crude oil prices elevated until 2024 and the surplus that was enjoyed in the first quarter of 2023 is expected to reverse.