The impact of President Donald Trump’s tariffs continues to affect the logistics and transportation sectors, with major ports experiencing a steep drop in imports after records were set earlier this year. According to CNBC, for the first time in 2025, rates for van, flatbed, and refrigerated loads in October were all lower on both a month-over-month and year-over-year basis, based on the DAT Truckload Volume Index.
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“Freight volumes in the third quarter and October reflect what we’re seeing in the broader goods economy, with shippers drawing on inventory built up earlier in the year to reduce their exposure to tariffs and weak consumer demand,” said Ken Adamo, DAT chief of Analytics. “As a result, the traditional peak holiday shipping season looks virtually non-existent this year,” Adamo said.
Van truckloads were down 3% compared to September, and 11% year over year. Refrigerated truckloads were down 2% month over month, and 7% year over year. Flatbed truckloads were down 4% month over month and 3% year over year. The reduced level of dry van and temp-controlled loads that are moving now through the supply chain are goods moving from distribution centers to retailers.
The causes of the trade decline range from weakness in housing and manufacturing to energy costs, and shippers pulling forward imports earlier in the year and building inventories to reduce tariff impacts. The latest U.S. Census Bureau data, released Wednesday after a more than month-long delay due to the government shutdown, showed a significant decline in imports in the month of August after additional tariffs went into place, $18.4 billion less than the level of July imports. The import drop contributed to a 23%-plus decline in the nation’s trade deficit, according to Census.
“You’re looking at the 16 percent decrease in Chinese imports coming to the United States,” said Mario Cordero, CEO of the Port of Long Beach. “The decrease is across the board,” Cordero said. The Port of Los Angeles also recorded a dip in container volumes in October.
Sector-Specific Impacts and Future Forecast Electronics, furniture, and toys have been identified in this freight pullback, while U.S. grain exports have also been hit by trade policy, with China increasing its purchase of soybeans from Brazil during the trade war. As part of an easing of trade tensions, China did recently commit to buying more U.S. soybeans.
The decrease in containers follows a period of trade frontloading during which retailers and manufacturers brought in freight early as they attempted to navigate multiple tariff deadlines and rate changes, leading to big jumps in port traffic. Global containers to the West Coast are up 10% year-over-year, according to Vizion. Containers from China to the U.S. West Coast are also up 4.6% year-over-year, with the trade route the most popular for Chinese goods coming to the U.S. because it has the shortest travel time. East Coast ports, including Houston, have seen a modest 2 percent increase year over year in container volumes. China containers, however, are down 12 percent.
“The good news is we’re still in the black,” Cordero said. While he said a fourth quarter decline was expected, what comes next is pivotal. “It remains to be seen, the resilience of the American consumer and their spending activity, and the next two months will be really telling about the diminishment of that growth,” he said.
“We are now forecasting nearly a 16.6 percent year-over-year decline for U.S. imports in December, after a 12% decline in Q3,” said Ben Tracy, vice president of strategic business development at real-time container tracking platform, Vizion. “There is no bounce back in sight,” Tracy said.
Structural Shift in Goods Demand
Retailers and manufacturers have put a pause on robust freight orders because of fears of a consumer pullback due to food and consumer product inflation. The picture from retail earnings this week has been mixed, with downbeat reports from Home Depot and Target but strong results from Walmart, which said more consumers are focused on value, and more of it sales are coming from upper-income shoppers.
“For the first time since March 2023, we’re seeing monthly import volumes consistently fall below 2 million TEUs — this isn’t just a seasonal dip or temporary correction,” said Kyle Henderson, CEO of Vizion. “The data shows this is a structural goods recession driven by the convergence of tariff uncertainty, frozen housing markets, and a fundamental shift in consumer spending away from physical goods,” he said.
“When furniture imports collapse 33 percent and toy imports — which historically surge 40-50 percent ahead of the holidays — barely rise 17 percent that tells you retailers are betting on the weakest consumer season in years,” he said.
Vizion data is showing container utilization has dropped from 100 percent to 91 percent. “Along with spot rates at two-year lows, and we’re staring down a decade of overcapacity. This isn’t a volume blip — it’s a major reset of freight demand fundamentals,” Henderson said. “The freight market is already feeling the pain,” he added.
Containers set to arrive at U.S. ports in December 2025 are 2.19 million twenty-foot-equivalent units vs. 2.62 million TEUs last December, according to Vizion, with the volume loss of over 430,000 TEUs causing a knock-on effect throughout the supply chain.
Labor and Global Impacts
In addition to the railroad, trucks, and warehouses, which generate revenue from the movement and storage of freight, port labor is also impacted. Less freight means a reduced need for daily longshoremen to move the containers.
“Labor is absolutely concerned,” said Mario Cordero, CEO of the Port of Long Beach. “It goes back again to job decreases, job anxiety. … When you have reduced volume, you’re going to have an impact on the jobs in the supply chain, certainly on the docks here at the Port of Long Beach,” he said. The International Longshoremen’s Association, the port labor responsible for the movement of freight, receives a yearly container bonus on the amount of freight moved.
In addition to the China tariffs, tariffs on India have collapsed the freight market servicing this trade, according to Vizion. The Global Trade Research Initiative reported a massive 37.5% drop in overall Indian export value to the U.S. between May and September 2025. India’s exports have a 50% tariff.
Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform
