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  February 20th, 2022 | Written by

U.S. Lemon Prices to Increase on Rising Fertilizer Costs, Global Production to Gain 4% y/y in 2022

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IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘World – Lemons And Limes – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights‘. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

Driven by growing logistics and fertilizer costs, lemon prices in the U.S. will rise despite expected increases in domestic and global production. In 2022, worldwide lemon and lime output is forecast to grow by 4% y/y to a record 22M tonnes due to increased acreages and favourable weather in Mexico, Turkey, South Africa and the U.S.

Lemon prices in the U.S. are projected to grow, despite expected increases in domestic and global production. Rising logistics and fertilizer costs are to push up fruit prices. In December 2021, the monthly average retail price for a pound of lemons in the U.S. was estimated at approximately $2.014, rising by 6% compared to December 2020. In 2022, it is forecast to pick up 3% to $2.074 per pound.

This year, global lemon and lime production is projected to increase by 4% y/y to 22M tonnes on the higher harvested areas and favourable weather in Mexico, Turkey and the U.S. Output in Mexico is to grow by 7% y/y to 3.2M tonnes, while Turkey production is set to soar by 27% y/y to a record 1.4M tonnes. Lemon production in South Africa is to rise by 4% y/y to 650K tonnes.

In 2022, U.S. output is expected to pick up 10% y/y to 885K tonnes with a larger crop in California. Imports into the U.S. are forecast to decrease by 2.3% y/y to 840K tonnes on rising domestic production.

Global Lemon and Lime Imports by Country

In 2020, approx. 3.7M tonnes of lemons and limes were imported worldwide, surging by 10% on the year before. In value terms, lemon and lime imports skyrocketed to $4.2B (IndexBox estimates).

In 2020, the U.S. (853K tonnes), distantly followed by the Netherlands (306K tonnes), Germany (260K tonnes), Russia (239K tonnes), France (174K tonnes) and the UK (168K tonnes) were the key importers of lemons and limes, together constituting 55% of total supplies. The following importers – Saudi Arabia (146K tonnes), Poland (141K tonnes), the United Arab Emirates (136K tonnes), Italy (119K tonnes), Canada (66K tonnes), Ukraine (65K tonnes) and Romania (62K tonnes) – together made up 20% of total purchases.

In value terms, the largest lemon and lime importing markets worldwide were the U.S. ($659M), Germany ($455M) and the Netherlands ($346M), together comprising 35% of global imports.

In 2020, the average lemon and lime import price amounted to $1,137 per tonne, surging by 4.8% against the previous year. Prices varied noticeably by the country of destination; the country with the highest price was Canada ($1,925 per tonne), while the United Arab Emirates ($714 per tonne) was amongst the lowest. In 2020, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Poland, while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Platform