Global Cheese Market Hit Record Highs But Is to Lose Momentum Against the Pandemic - Global Trade Magazine
  September 14th, 2020 | Written by

Global Cheese Market Hit Record Highs But Is to Lose Momentum Against the Pandemic

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  • In value terms, Germany ($4.2B) constitutes the largest market for imported cheese worldwide.
  • In 2019, the amount of cheese produced worldwide rose slightly to 26M tonnes, picking up by 2.6% on the year before.

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘World – Cheese – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

In 2019, the global cheese market increased by 2.3% to $114.1B, rising for the third year in a row after two years of decline. The market value increased at an average annual rate of +1.1% over the period from 2013 to 2019; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations in certain years. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 when the market value increased by 7.1% year-to-year. Over the period under review, the global market reached its maximum level in 2019.

Taking into account the closure of the HoReCa sector worldwide due to the pandemic, a decrease in consumer incomes and possible disruptions in the work of international supply chains, global cheese consumption is expected to stagnate in 2020. Afterward, the start of gradual market growth is expected as the global economy recovers from the effects of the pandemic. The market is forecast to expand with an anticipated CAGR +0.6% for the period from 2019 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 27M tonnes by the end of 2030.

Consumption by Country

The U.S. (6.1M tonnes) remains the largest cheese consuming country worldwide, accounting for 24% of total volume. Moreover, cheese consumption in the U.S. exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, Germany (3M tonnes), twofold. The third position in this ranking was occupied by France (1.6M tonnes), with a 6.4% share.

From 2013 to 2019, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume in the U.S. totaled +2.5%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Germany (+4.4% per year) and France (+1.3% per year).

In value terms, the U.S. ($25.9B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was occupied by Germany ($11.2B). It was followed by Italy.

The countries with the highest levels of cheese per capita consumption in 2019 were the Czech Republic (64 kg per person), Germany (37 kg per person) and France (25 kg per person).

From 2013 to 2019, the most notable rate of growth in terms of cheese per capita consumption, amongst the main consuming countries, was attained by the Czech Republic, while cheese per capita consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Market Forecast 2019-2025

Driven by increasing demand for cheese worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next decade. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +1.8% for the period from 2019 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 31M tonnes by the end of 2030.

Production

In 2019, the amount of cheese produced worldwide rose slightly to 26M tonnes, picking up by 2.6% on the year before. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.6% from 2013 to 2019; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations in certain years.

Production by Country

The countries with the highest volumes of cheese production in 2019 were the U.S. (6.3M tonnes), Germany (3.5M tonnes) and France (1.9M tonnes), with a combined 46% share of global production. These countries were followed by Italy, Poland, the Netherlands, Argentina, Russia, the Czech Republic, Egypt, the UK and Canada, which together accounted for a further 26%.

From 2013 to 2019, the most notable rate of growth in terms of cheese production, amongst the key producing countries, was attained by the Czech Republic, while cheese production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports

In 2019, approx. 7.1M tonnes of cheese were imported worldwide; rising by 3.5% against 2018. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.7% over the period from 2013 to 2019; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations throughout the analyzed period. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2018 with an increase of 4.2% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global imports attained the peak figure in 2019 and are expected to retain growth in the near future. In value terms, cheese imports rose to $32.3B (IndexBox estimates) in 2019.

Imports by Country

In 2019, Germany (778K tonnes), Italy (536K tonnes), the UK (495K tonnes), the Netherlands (390K tonnes), France (377K tonnes), Belgium (341K tonnes), Spain (310K tonnes), Japan (303K tonnes) and Russia (284K tonnes) represented the major importer of cheese in the world, mixing up 54% of total import. The U.S. (180K tonnes), Saudi Arabia (148K tonnes) and Greece (135K tonnes) took a relatively small share of total imports.

From 2013 to 2019, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the main importing countries, was attained by the Netherlands, while imports for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Germany ($4.2B) constitutes the largest market for imported cheese worldwide, comprising 13% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by the UK ($2.1B), with a 6.5% share of global imports. It was followed by Italy, with a 6.3% share.

Import Prices by Country

The average cheese import price stood at $4,532 per tonne in 2019, falling by -1.6% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the import price showed a noticeable descent. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 when the average import price increased by 11% year-to-year. Over the period under review, average import prices attained the peak figure at $5,303 per tonne in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2019, import prices failed to regain the momentum.

Prices varied noticeably by the country of destination; the country with the highest price was the U.S. ($7,560 per tonne), while Saudi Arabia ($3,362 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2019, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Japan, while the other global leaders experienced a decline in the import price figures.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform