IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘Asia – Apple – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

In 2018, the apple market size in Asia amounted to $62.1B (in wholesale price). The total market indicated a strong increase from 2008 to 2018: its value increased at an average annual rate of +3.1% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2018 figures, the apple consumption increased by +16.7% against 2014 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2014, when the market value increased by 24% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the apple market reached its maximum level in 2018, and is likely to see steady growth in the near future.

Production in Asia

In 2018, the amount of apples produced in Asia amounted to 56M tonnes, going up by 3.5% against the previous year. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.0% over the period from 2008 to 2018; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2011, when the output figure increased by 9% y-o-y. The volume of apple production peaked in 2018, and is likely to continue its growth in the near future.

The general positive trend in terms of apple output was largely conditioned by a noticeable expansion of the harvested area and a modest growth in yield figures.

Exports in Asia

In 2018, approx. 1.3M tonnes of apples were exported in Asia; lowering by -3.7% against the previous year. Over the period under review, apple exports continue to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2013, when exports increased by 26% y-o-y. In that year, apple exports attained their peak of 1.7M tonnes. From 2014 to 2018, the growth of apple exports failed to regain its momentum.

In value terms, apple exports amounted to $1.3B (IndexBox estimates) in 2018. The total export value increased at an average annual rate of +4.1% over the period from 2008 to 2018; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2016, when exports increased by 21% year-to-year. In that year, apple exports attained their peak of $1.4B. From 2017 to 2018, the growth of apple exports failed to regain its momentum.

Exports by Country

China dominates apple exports structure, accounting for 701K tonnes, which was near 55% of total exports in 2018. Turkey (108K tonnes) ranks second in terms of the total exports with a 8.5% share, followed by Iran (8.5%) and Azerbaijan (7.1%). China, Hong Kong SAR (39K tonnes), Afghanistan (38K tonnes), Lebanon (37K tonnes), Japan (34K tonnes), Syrian Arab Republic (20K tonnes) and Israel (20K tonnes) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2008 to 2018, average annual rates of growth with regard to apple exports from China stood at -3.3%. At the same time, Turkey (+25.7%), Afghanistan (+16.6%), Iran (+8.7%), Israel (+6.7%) and China, Hong Kong SAR (+1.1%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Turkey emerged as the fastest growing exporter in Asia, with a CAGR of +25.7% from 2008-2018. Japan and Lebanon experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, Azerbaijan (-3.0%) and Syrian Arab Republic (-4.5%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. While the share of China (22%) and Azerbaijan (2.6%) increased significantly in terms of the global exports from 2008-2018, the share of Afghanistan (-2.3%), Iran (-4.8%) and Turkey (-7.6%) displayed negative dynamics. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, China ($845M) remains the largest apple supplier in Asia, comprising 67% of total apple exports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by Turkey ($79M), with a 6.2% share of total exports. It was followed by Iran, with a 5.1% share.

Export Prices by Country

The apple export price in Asia stood at $1,001 per tonne in 2018, going up by 10% against the previous year. The export price indicated a remarkable growth from 2008 to 2018: its price increased at an average annual rate of +4.9% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2018 figures, the apple export price increased by +37.4% against 2013 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2014, when the export price increased by 22% year-to-year. The level of export price peaked in 2018, and is expected to retain its growth in the near future.

Export prices varied noticeably by the country of origin; the country with the highest export price was Israel ($1,530 per tonne), while Azerbaijan ($423 per tonne) was amongst the lowest. From 2008 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of export prices was attained by Afghanistan, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports in Asia

In 2018, apple imports in Asia totaled 2.4M tonnes, lowering by -17.3% against the previous year. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.3% over the period from 2008 to 2018; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2015, when imports increased by 14% y-o-y. The volume of imports peaked at 2.9M tonnes in 2017, and then declined slightly in the following year.

In value terms, apple imports amounted to $2.3B (IndexBox estimates) in 2018. The total imports indicated a prominent expansion from 2008 to 2018: its value increased at an average annual rate of +3.3% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2010, with an increase of 18% year-to-year. The level of imports peaked at $2.7B in 2017, and then declined slightly in the following year.

Imports by Country

In 2018, India (267K tonnes), Taiwan, Chinese (180K tonnes), China, Hong Kong SAR (167K tonnes), Indonesia (163K tonnes), Saudi Arabia (150K tonnes), Thailand (142K tonnes), the Philippines (134K tonnes), the United Arab Emirates (107K tonnes), Viet Nam (106K tonnes), Kazakhstan (101K tonnes), Iraq (99K tonnes) and Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (94K tonnes) were the largest importers of apples in Asia, achieving 71% of total import.

From 2008 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of imports, amongst the main importing countries, was attained by Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth. In value terms, India ($264M), Taiwan, Chinese ($245M) and China, Hong Kong SAR ($198M) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2018, with a combined 31% share of total imports. These countries were followed by Indonesia, Thailand, the Philippines, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Viet Nam, Kazakhstan, Democratic People’s Republic of Korea and Iraq, which together accounted for a further 43%.

Import Prices by Country

The apple import price in Asia stood at $965 per tonne in 2018, growing by 3% against the previous year. Over the period from 2008 to 2018, it increased at an average annual rate of +2.3%. There were significant differences in the average import prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2018, the country with the highest import price was Taiwan, Chinese ($1,362 per tonne), while Iraq ($194 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2008 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of import prices was attained by Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform