Global trade has outperformed expectations in the first half of 2025, prompting the World Trade Organization (WTO) to sharply revise its growth forecast upward to 2.4%—a significant jump from its August estimate of just 0.9%. Yet the optimism is tempered by a gloomy outlook for 2026, with the WTO projecting trade growth to slow to only 0.5% as new tariffs take effect.

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In its latest Global Trade Outlook and Statistics report released on October 7, the WTO attributes the strong performance largely to two drivers: booming demand for AI-related products and widespread frontloading of inventories ahead of tariff increases. Shipments of AI components—ranging from semiconductors to servers and telecommunications hardware—soared 20% year-on-year, contributing nearly half of the total rise in merchandise trade.

The maritime sector has been one of the biggest beneficiaries of this surge. Global merchandise trade volumes climbed 4.9% in the first half of 2025 compared to the same period last year, while the dollar value of trade increased by 6%—a notable rebound following a modest 2% uptick in 2024.

WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala praised the resilience of emerging markets, pointing out that “South-South trade grew 8% year-on-year in value terms in the first half of 2025, compared to 6% for world trade overall.”

The report highlights a shifting global trade map: Asia and Africa are leading the world in export growth, while North America and the Commonwealth of Independent States are seeing declines. On the import front, Africa and the Least Developed Countries are expanding rapidly, contrasting with weakening demand in North America.

However, the WTO warns that the picture could darken in 2026. The Trump administration’s new tariff measures, introduced in August 2025, are already reshaping trade flows and pushing up input costs. WTO economists caution that these pressures, combined with reduced inventory levels, could trigger inflationary effects toward the end of 2025.

The maritime services sector is expected to feel the slowdown as well. Growth in transport services is projected to fall from 4.5% in 2024 to 2.5% this year, and then to just 1.8% in 2026. Overall, maritime services growth is forecast to ease from 6.8% in 2024 to 4.6% in 2025 and 4.4% the following year.

Despite these headwinds, Okonjo-Iweala underscored the importance of maintaining confidence in global trade frameworks. “Trade resilience in 2025 is thanks in no small part to the stability provided by the rules-based multilateral trading system,” she said. “But today’s disruptions are a call to action for nations to reimagine trade.”

For shipping and logistics stakeholders, the WTO’s report offers a mixed outlook: sustained demand for AI-related goods and services is likely to remain a key growth engine, even as tariff-driven uncertainty clouds the longer-term horizon.