Read also: C.H. Robinson: How Shippers can prepare for a Potential ILA Strike Amid an Increasingly Disrupted North American Shipping Landscape 

Strike impacts likely to extend to U.S. west coast ports through diversions

“In the event of a strike, U.S. west coast ports would almost certainly see an increase in congestion from the increase in diverted cargo flow. U.S. east and gulf coast ports combined account for roughly 50% of imported cargo, and west coast capacity would quickly become inundated with the increased volume. This may lead to disruptions such as longer vessel waiting times, congestion in container storage yards, and delays in rail operations in and out of affected ports. In addition, the threat of work stoppages on the U.S. west coast in solidarity cannot be ruled out. The International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU) has pledged its backing to its east and gulf coast counterpart. While the ILWU has not outlined any specific actions it plans to take in support, solidarity strikes of any kind could prompt nationwide port disruptions and severe impacts on maritime trade with the U.S.

Counts for waiting vessels at North American ports have steadily increased to the highest numbers recorded for this year. This is likely due to early diversions by shippers who are interested in preemptively avoiding disruptions from the looming strikes.”

U.S. government unlikely to intervene to block port strikes 

“Under the Taft-Hartley Act, President Biden can order port workers to avoid strike action while government mediation to reach an agreement takes place. On September 17, however, the Biden administration issued a statement detailing that it has no intention to intervene to block the strike action this time and instead encourages continued negotiations between the parties involved. The timing of the U.S. presidential election could be a factor in this decision, as the Biden administration has been outspokenly pro-union and any move to undermine union strength in negotiations would likely harm Vice President and running presidential candidate Kamala Harris’ chances of securing union support before the general vote in November.

While direct government intervention is unlikely given this announcement, the current administration has a strong incentive to avoid a full-scale strike action and the severe economic impacts that could unfold as a result. As economic strength has already become a cornerstone of the presidential election, a strike of any length could leave Harris vulnerable to lost support due to supply chain disruptions and economic challenges resulting from the port worker’s strike.”