Whey Market in Asia-Pacific - China to Remain the Largest Import Market, Despite a Softer Economy - Global Trade Magazine
  September 1st, 2019 | Written by

Whey Market in Asia-Pacific – China to Remain the Largest Import Market, Despite a Softer Economy

Sharelines

  • The revenue of the whey market in Asia-Pacific amounted to $1.5B in 2018, waning by -4.3% against the previous year.
  • Imports into China increased at an average annual rate of +10.1% from 2007 to 2018.
  • New Zealand (15K tonnes) took a 20% share (based on tonnes) of total exports.

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘Asia-Pacific – Whey – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

The revenue of the whey market in Asia-Pacific amounted to $1.5B in 2018, waning by -4.3% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers’ margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The total market indicated buoyant growth from 2007 to 2018: its value increased at an average annual rate of +6.4% over the last eleven years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2018 figures, whey consumption increased by +9.0% against 2016 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2011 with an increase of 27% y-o-y. Over the period under review, the whey market reached its maximum level at $1.7B in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2018, consumption failed to regain its momentum.

Consumption By Country in Asia-Pacific

China (526K tonnes) constituted the country with the largest volume of whey consumption, accounting for a 42% share. Moreover, whey consumption in China exceeded the figures recorded by the region’s second-largest consumer, Indonesia (128K tonnes), fourfold. Australia (91K tonnes) ranked third in terms of total consumption with a 7.3% share.

From 2007 to 2018, the average annual growth rate of volume in China amounted to +9.3%. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of consumption growth: Indonesia (+8.1% per year) and Australia (+6.3% per year).

In value terms, China ($555M) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was occupied by New Zealand ($159M). It was followed by Indonesia.

In 2018, the highest levels of whey per capita consumption was registered in New Zealand (15 kg per person), followed by Australia (3,674 kg per 1000 persons), Malaysia (2,644 kg per 1000 persons) and Thailand (853 kg per 1000 persons), while the world average per capita consumption of whey was estimated at 299 kg per 1000 persons.

From 2007 to 2018, the average annual growth rate of the whey per capita consumption in New Zealand totaled +23.5%. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of per capita consumption growth: Australia (+4.7% per year) and Malaysia (+3.7% per year).

Market Forecast 2019-2025 in Asia-Pacific

Driven by increasing demand for whey in Asia-Pacific, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next seven-year period. Market performance is forecast to decelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +3.7% for the seven-year period from 2018 to 2025, which is projected to bring the market volume to 1.6M tonnes by the end of 2025.

Production in Asia-Pacific

The whey production amounted to 151K tonnes in 2018, approximately mirroring the previous year. In general, whey production, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2010 when production volume increased by 1.9% year-to-year. Over the period under review, whey production attained its peak figure volume at 155K tonnes in 2008; however, from 2009 to 2018, production stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, whey production totaled $160M in 2018 estimated in export prices. In general, whey production, however, continues to indicate a drastic curtailment. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2010 with an increase of 70% year-to-year. The level of whey production peaked at $433M in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2018, production failed to regain its momentum.

Production By Country in Asia-Pacific

Australia (99K tonnes) remains the largest whey producing country in Asia-Pacific, comprising approx. 65% of total production. Moreover, whey production in Australia exceeded the figures recorded by the region’s second-largest producer, New Zealand (26K tonnes), fourfold. The third position in this ranking was occupied by China (20K tonnes), with a 13% share.

In Australia, whey production remained relatively stable over the period from 2007-2018. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: New Zealand (+1.5% per year) and China (-1.1% per year).

Exports in Asia-Pacific

In 2018, the amount of whey exported in Asia-Pacific stood at 78K tonnes, jumping by 28% against the previous year. In general, whey exports, however, continue to indicate a measured decrease. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2016 when Exports increased by 45% year-to-year. Over the period under review, whey exports attained their maximum at 99K tonnes in 2009; however, from 2010 to 2018, exports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, whey exports amounted to $95M in 2018. Over the period under review, whey exports, however, continue to indicate a drastic setback. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2011 with an increase of 30% y-o-y. Over the period under review, whey exports attained their maximum at $209M in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2018, exports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Exports by Country

Australia was the major exporting country with an export of around 52K tonnes, which recorded 67% of total exports. New Zealand (15K tonnes) took a 20% share (based on tonnes) of total exports, which put it in second place, followed by Thailand (6.4%). The following exporters – Singapore (1.3K tonnes) and South Korea (1.3K tonnes) – each reached a 3.4% share of total exports.

Australia experienced a relatively flat trend pattern of wheyexports. At the same time, South Korea (+36.0%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, South Korea emerged as the fastest growing exporter in Asia-Pacific, with a CAGR of +36.0% from 2007-2018. By contrast, New Zealand (-2.9%), Thailand (-6.4%) and Singapore (-9.6%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. From 2007 to 2018, the share of South Korea increased by +1.6% percentage points, while Australia (-1.8 p.p.), Singapore (-3.4 p.p.), Thailand (-6.9 p.p.) and New Zealand (-7.7 p.p.) saw their share reduced.

In value terms, the largest whey markets in Asia-Pacific were Australia ($50M), New Zealand ($27M) and Thailand ($6.3M), together accounting for 88% of total exports. South Korea and Singapore lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 5.8%.

Among the main exporting countries, South Korea (+59.4% per year) experienced the highest growth rate of exports, over the last eleven-year period, while the other leaders experienced a decline in the exports figures.

Export Prices by Country

The whey export price in Asia-Pacific stood at $1,217 per tonne in 2018, going down by -28.9% against the previous year. Overall, the whey export price continues to indicate a pronounced descent. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2011 an increase of 49% year-to-year. Over the period under review, the export prices for whey attained their peak figure at $2,774 per tonne in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2018, export prices remained at a lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2018, the country with the highest price was South Korea ($2,989 per tonne), while Australia ($957 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by South Korea, while the other leaders experienced mixed trends in the export price figures.

Imports in Asia-Pacific

In 2018, the amount of whey imported in Asia-Pacific totaled 1.2M tonnes, jumping by 10% against the previous year. The total imports indicated prominent growth from 2007 to 2018: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +6.7% over the last eleven-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2018 figures, whey imports increased by +35.0% against 2014 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2009 with an increase of 22% y-o-y. The volume of imports peaked in 2018 and are likely to see steady growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, whey imports amounted to $1.2B in 2018. In general, whey imports continue to indicate a moderate increase. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2011 when Imports increased by 48% against the previous year. The level of imports peaked at $1.8B in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2018, imports failed to regain their momentum.

Imports by Country

China was the key importing country with an import of about 506K tonnes, which amounted to 43% of total imports. Indonesia (128K tonnes) ranks second in terms of the total imports with a 11% share, followed by Malaysia (7.3%), the Philippines (5.6%), Thailand (5%), New Zealand (5%) and Japan (4.8%). Viet Nam (45K tonnes) followed a long way behind the leaders.

Imports into China increased at an average annual rate of +10.1% from 2007 to 2018. At the same time, New Zealand (+24.1%), Indonesia (+8.0%), Malaysia (+5.3%), Viet Nam (+5.1%), the Philippines (+4.0%) and Thailand (+3.6%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, New Zealand emerged as the fastest growing importer in Asia-Pacific, with a CAGR of +24.1% from 2007-2018. By contrast, Japan (-1.6%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. China (+28 p.p.), Indonesia (+6.2 p.p.), New Zealand (+4.5 p.p.), Malaysia (+3.2 p.p.), the Philippines (+2 p.p.), Thailand (+1.6 p.p.) and Viet Nam (+1.6 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the total imports, while the shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, China ($510M) constitutes the largest market for imported whey in Asia-Pacific, comprising 41% of total whey imports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by Indonesia ($129M), with a 10% share of total imports. It was followed by Malaysia, with a 7% share.

From 2007 to 2018, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value in China stood at +4.8%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Indonesia (+3.1% per year) and Malaysia (+1.6% per year).

Import Prices by Country

The whey import price in Asia-Pacific stood at $1,047 per tonne in 2018, going down by -14% against the previous year. In general, the whey import price continues to indicate a perceptible reduction. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2010 when the import price increased by 29% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the import prices for whey reached their maximum at $1,852 per tonne in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2018, import prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2018, the country with the highest price was Japan ($1,315 per tonne), while Viet Nam ($787 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Viet Nam, while the other leaders experienced a decline in the import price figures.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform


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