The intensifying trade friction between the U.S. and Canada is capturing the attention of companies on both sides of the frontier and elsewhere, as they watch to see if the proposed duties will take effect. As the scenario develops, it is becoming evident that firms throughout the packaging sector may see their endurance tested, especially while other geopolitical and economic challenges are also mounting.

Read also: US-Canada Trade Talks Collapse, 50% Tariffs Imposed

On Tuesday, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney unveiled duties of as much as 50% on various materials and goods imported from the U.S., in retaliation for President Donald Trump’s similar measures imposed over the weekend following the breakdown of trade negotiations. According to U.S. Census Bureau figures, Canada ranks as the second-largest trading partner of the U.S., trailing only Mexico.

The packaging sector is anticipated to encounter broad repercussions from the conflict as additional expenses propagate through supply chains. Yet, the segments most likely to experience the strongest effects are those dependent on materials or products explicitly listed in the tariff orders of the two nations: Canada included pulp and paper, along with aluminum and steel, whereas the U.S. referenced wood products and paper, which analysts believe also encompasses containerboard and boxboard, distinct from the U.S. sectoral tariffs on metals.

Prior to the trade clash, some packaging company leaders discussed their strategies for mitigating tariffs during recent earnings calls. On Aug. 6, executives from Cascades stated they were evaluating the possible consequences of the U.S. 50% tariffs on Canadian imports and were formulating a response plan. On Aug. 4, Ball executives voiced worries about tariffs and indicated they were keeping an eye on aluminum prices.

With expectations of substantial cost hikes, certain firms in the packaging supply chain are considering whether to accelerate purchases and deliveries to get ahead of the Sept. 8 tariffs, according to several sources familiar with the industry. However, there is scant concrete proof of extensive frontloading thus far in this quickly shifting situation.

Every company that Packaging Dive reached out to declined to discuss the U.S.-Canada matter. However, a number of trade organizations offered their perspectives.

Fiber

Heidi Brock, president and CEO of the American Forest & Paper Association, remarked in a Tuesday statement that the U.S. pulp, paper, packaging, and tissue supply chain is thoroughly interconnected throughout North America. She added that fresh counter-tariffs on U.S. goods, including pulp and paper items, could introduce uncertainty and expenses for producers, laborers, clients, and communities on both sides of the border. While the organization backs trade policies that combat unfair practices and bolster U.S. manufacturing, she noted that intensifying tariff conflicts between the U.S. and Canada will interrupt the cross-border supply chains that support mills and manufacturers.

Across the border, the Canadian Corrugated and Containerboard Association conveyed via a weekend LinkedIn post its disappointment that a stable and equitable trade pact had not been achieved. In a letter, Serge Desgagnes, the CCCA’s executive director, stated that Canada ought to emphasize that the corrugated and containerboard sector is deeply integrated across the border, and that tariffs would damage producers, workers, and customers on both sides. He further noted that because nearly every product depends on corrugated packaging, any disruption to this supply chain would have ripple effects on numerous other industries.

Beyond raising costs for manufacturers and exporters, interruptions to corrugated trade could impact recovered fiber markets that support the nation’s recycling systems, according to the CCCA. The association urged leaders from both countries to resume discussions and exclude corrugated products from the proposed duties.

Metals

Starting Sept. 8, Canada intends to double its metal import levies from the existing 25%, matching the Trump administration’s Section 232 tariffs of 50% on aluminum, steel, and copper, as well as derivative products.

Although the Can Manufacturers Institute did not address the current U.S.-Canada situation, it has historically pointed out that steel and aluminum tariffs pass through supply chains, increasing the cost of canned goods at retail outlets. It has also emphasized for years that the U.S. relies heavily on imports for its aluminum and tin mill steel, with domestic can makers bringing in nearly 80% of the latter. Canada provides roughly two-thirds of the primary aluminum consumed in the U.S., per The Aluminum Association.

On Monday, Trump referenced this supply gap, asserting that the U.S. urgently requires aluminum and obtains most of it from Canada, as reported by Bloomberg. In response, Charles Johnson, president and CEO of The Aluminum Association, posted on LinkedIn Tuesday before Canada’s actions, agreeing with Trump and stressing that America must expand both primary and recycled aluminum output as part of a comprehensive strategy for metal supply.

Aluminum demand in the U.S. remains robust, according to the AA, but bringing additional domestic production capacity online will require years. Consequently, the association maintains that importing primary metal is unavoidable, while also advocating for continued growth in recycled aluminum production. The AA notes that roughly 85% of U.S. aluminum output is secondary.

Following Canada’s announcement of counter-tariffs, the AA informed Packaging Dive via email that it is reviewing the measures and reaffirmed that Canada is a major trading partner for U.S. firms. Johnson stated that these actions will adversely affect certain industry segments by restricting U.S. producers’ ability to compete in Canada at a moment when America should be poised to satisfy rising aluminum demand. The all-encompassing approach to metal supply includes sensible, focused trade enforcement. He voiced optimism that U.S. and Canadian trade representatives will return to negotiations promptly to reach a fair and sensible deal.

Glass

Canada’s tariff directive on Tuesday did not explicitly mention glass. Nevertheless, glass packaging has been entangled in a Canadian boycott of U.S.-made alcoholic beverages for roughly a year. In July, the U.S. imposed additional 50% duties on numerous alcoholic drinks imported from Canada.

In a statement, the Glass Packaging Institute referenced Commerce Department data indicating that the U.S. brought in 348 million glass bottles and jars from Canada in 2025, valued at over $86 million. These products have historically crossed North American borders duty-free under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, the group noted.

The trade association voiced concern that further Section 338 tariffs on Canadian glass bottles, jars, and raw materials would heighten strain on an already tightly linked North American supply chain that has witnessed declining sales amid the reciprocal tariff policy discussions. The GPI mentioned its membership in the Toasts Not Tariffs Coalition, which advocates for a prompt settlement of the U.S.-Canada trade dispute and the reinstatement of U.S. wine and spirits on Canadian shelves.

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