Global trade is bracing for a fresh wave of disruption as tensions around the Strait of Hormuz begin to spill beyond shipping delays into a wider economic threat.

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According to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), the situation is escalating  and what started as a maritime bottleneck is now triggering a chain reaction across energy, transport, and food markets.

The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most critical energy corridors, carrying roughly a quarter of all seaborne oil, along with large volumes of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and fertilizers. With traffic now severely restricted, the impact is already being felt far beyond the region.

Shipping activity has dropped sharply. After averaging about 129 vessel transits per day in February, early March figures show movement plunging into single digits. Many operators are choosing to delay voyages, reroute shipments, or pause operations altogether amid growing security concerns.

Energy markets reacted immediately. Brent crude prices climbed past $90 per barrel, while natural gas prices also surged. These increases are quickly translating into higher fuel costs for ships, rising insurance premiums, and more expensive freight rates.

UNCTAD warns that this is only the beginning of a broader economic ripple effect. As energy costs rise, so do transportation and fertilizer prices—key inputs that ultimately feed into global food inflation.

For developing economies already grappling with high debt levels, the timing could not be worse. Higher import costs for fuel and food risk placing additional strain on fragile financial systems.

The fertilizer trade is another major concern. The Gulf region is a crucial supplier, and many countries depend heavily on these exports. Continued disruption could tighten supply and push prices even higher, raising the risk of agricultural shortfalls.

Financial markets are also showing early signs of stress. Bond yields in parts of the region have started to edge upward, echoing patterns seen in previous global shocks where energy disruptions triggered wider economic instability.

The message from UNCTAD is clear: strategic chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz remain critical vulnerabilities in global trade. If the current disruption continues, its effects are likely to deepen—spreading from shipping lanes to energy markets and ultimately into the cost of food worldwide.