The U.S. Trade Representative’s new fee structure targeting Chinese-built and -operated vessels is sending shockwaves through the container shipping industry, with fears mounting that the policy could destabilize long-standing global shipping alliances.

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Nick Evans, business development manager at AFS Global, warned that the tariffs could spark “complete destabilisation” of ocean carrier partnerships, as freight forwarders begin to steer clear of carriers linked to China to shield clients from soaring costs.

“We’re already seeing a pivot toward operators without Chinese ties,” Evans said. “This shift will inevitably lead to major supply chain disruptions and put significant pressure on alliance structures.”

Chinese shipping giant Cosco—ranked as the world’s fourth-largest liner operator—is expected to bear the brunt of the USTR’s trade action. Cosco and its subsidiary OOCL, both part of the Ocean Alliance with CMA CGM and Evergreen, face mounting pressure as shippers rethink their carrier choices.

According to Alphaliner, Cosco may be forced to increase its transpacific slot usage on partner vessels or deploy smaller ships—under 4,000 TEU—to mitigate fee impacts. However, these workarounds may not be enough to avoid customer attrition.

“This isn’t a universal cost hike across the board,” said an Alphaliner analyst. “Non-Chinese carriers can reposition Korean- or Japanese-built tonnage to maintain competitive pricing. But Cosco and other China-linked lines face an uneven playing field with fewer alternatives.”

Beginning this October, Chinese-built ships will be charged $18 per net ton or $120 per discharged container, whichever is higher—rising to $33 per ton or $250 per container by April 2028. Chinese vessel operators, regardless of where their ships are built, face an additional fee starting at $50 per net ton, escalating to $140 over the same period.

Evans cautioned that the broader impacts could be severe: “Over half of general cargo and nearly 90% of project cargo entering the U.S. traditionally arrives on Chinese-built vessels. These tariffs represent a frightening reality—not just for carriers, but for freight forwarders and importers already stretched by global financial strain.”

Rather than restricting capacity, he urged policymakers to prioritize resilience and flexibility: “This is a time to reinforce—not restrict—our supply chain infrastructure.”