U.S. supply chains are beginning to stabilize after a year marked by severe tariff-driven disruption, according to project44’s December Tariff Report, though unresolved legal and policy questions continue to cloud the outlook heading into 2026.

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The maritime sector, in particular, is showing signs of returning to equilibrium following the April 2 introduction of sweeping “Liberation Day” tariffs, which imposed a blanket 10% duty on most imports and pushed sector-specific rates as high as 40%. Project44 data shows that blank sailings—an indicator of demand weakness or excess capacity—have fallen 65% from their April peak, signaling that carriers have largely restored schedule reliability after months of turbulence.

“Supply chains are stabilizing after a year of tariff-driven disruption,” said Brian Cooper, chief marketing officer at project44. “Carriers have resumed more predictable schedules, and importers are diversifying sourcing as trade with China remains well below prior years. Indonesia and Thailand are playing a larger role in U.S. sourcing, but it’s too early to view these shifts as permanent. With a pending Supreme Court ruling and active refund lawsuits, the policy environment remains unsettled.”

The tariff changes triggered immediate dislocation as shippers reevaluated sourcing strategies, pricing structures, and inventory plans. In April, blank sailings surged to 131 across major U.S. trade lanes tracked by project44, with the heaviest concentration on Asia-U.S., China-U.S., and U.S.-China routes. By November, blank sailings had fallen to 46, a level the firm considers normal.

Trade between the U.S. and China has remained subdued throughout 2025. Project44 data shows U.S. imports from China running 28% lower through November compared with 2024, while exports to China are down 41% year-to-date. Still, November delivered the smallest year-over-year export decline since January, potentially reflecting early progress from recent bilateral trade discussions.

Additional data from Descartes Systems Group’s December Global Shipping Report supports the trend of softening China trade. U.S. container imports totaled 2.18 million TEUs in November, down 5.4% from October and 7.8% below year-ago levels. China accounted for much of the decline, with volumes falling nearly 20% year-over-year.

As China volumes have weakened, Southeast Asia has gained ground. Project44 reports U.S. imports from Thailand up 33% year-to-date and Indonesia up 34% versus 2024, despite both countries facing higher tariffs and product-specific surcharges. Descartes’ November data shows similar momentum, with imports from Vietnam up 15.4%, Thailand surging 27.2%, and Indonesia rising 18.0%.

“Beyond normal seasonality, November’s decline likely reflects continued importer caution in a fluid tariff environment,” said Jackson Wood, director of industry strategy at Descartes. “While recent U.S.-China agreements have eased near-term pressure, longer-term uncertainty remains. Legal challenges to IEEPA tariffs, geopolitical risks, and ongoing carrier caution in the Red Sea are all weighing on importer confidence.”

Despite improving schedule reliability and early signs of sourcing diversification, the policy backdrop remains fragile. A forthcoming Supreme Court decision on the administration’s use of tariff authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, along with multiple refund lawsuits from major importers, could reignite volatility. With legal and diplomatic outcomes still unresolved, U.S. supply chains may face renewed disruption in early 2026.