IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘U.S. – Roasted Chicory And Other Roasted Coffee Substitutes – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends And Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

The revenue of the roasted coffee substitutes market in the U.S. amounted to $164M in 2018, surging by 12% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers’ margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +1.5% over the period from 2013 to 2018; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations over the period under review. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 with an increase of 13% y-o-y. Over the period under review, the roasted coffee substitutes market attained its maximum level in 2018 and is likely to continue its growth in the near future.

Market Forecast 2019-2025 in the U.S.

Driven by increasing demand for roasted coffee substitutes in the U.S., the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next seven-year period. Market performance is forecast to decelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +0.1% for the seven-year period from 2018 to 2025, which is projected to bring the market volume to 40K tonnes by the end of 2025.

Production in the U.S.

In 2018, approx. 38K tonnes of roasted chicory and other roasted coffee substitutes were produced in the U.S.; increasing by 7.1% against the previous year. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.6% over the period from 2013 to 2018; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2018 with an increase of 7.1% year-to-year. In that year, roasted coffee substitutes production reached its peak volume and is likely to continue its growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, roasted coffee substitutes production stood at $170M in 2018. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +3.9% from 2013 to 2018; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2014 when production volume increased by 19% y-o-y. Over the period under review, roasted coffee substitutes production reached its maximum level at $201M in 2017, and then declined slightly in the following year.

Exports from the U.S.

In 2018, the exports of roasted chicory and other roasted coffee substitutes from the U.S. totaled 172 tonnes, jumping by 71% against the previous year. In general, roasted coffee substitutes exports, however, continue to indicate a drastic descent. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 with an increase of 71% y-o-y. Over the period under review, roasted coffee substitutes exports attained their peak figure at 442 tonnes in 2015; however, from 2016 to 2018, exports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, roasted coffee substitutes exports amounted to $759K (IndexBox estimates) in 2018. In general, roasted coffee substitutes exports, however, continue to indicate a drastic descent. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 when exports increased by 67% year-to-year. Over the period under review, roasted coffee substitutes exports reached their maximum at $2.4M in 2015; however, from 2016 to 2018, exports remained at a lower figure.

Exports by Country

China (27 tonnes), Canada (18 tonnes) and Viet Nam (16 tonnes) were the main destinations of roasted coffee substitutes exports from the U.S., together comprising 35% of total exports. China, Hong Kong SAR, France, Guyana, Russia, Aruba, Venezuela, Australia, Switzerland and the Philippines lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 36%.

From 2013 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of exports, amongst the main countries of destination, was attained by Switzerland (+134.7% per year), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest markets for roasted coffee substitutes exported from the U.S. were Russia ($121K), Canada ($108K) and China ($90K), with a combined 42% share of total exports. France, the Philippines, Australia, Venezuela, China, Hong Kong SAR, Switzerland, Aruba, Viet Nam and Guyana lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 20%.

Among the main countries of destination, Switzerland (+80.0% per year) experienced the highest growth rate of exports, over the last five years, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices by Country

In 2018, the average roasted coffee substitutes export price amounted to $4,408 per tonne, reducing by -25.4% against the previous year. Over the period from 2013 to 2018, it increased at an average annual rate of +3.0%. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 when the average export price increased by 25% year-to-year. Over the period under review, the average export prices for roasted chicory and other roasted coffee substitutes reached their maximum at $5,911 per tonne in 2017, and then declined slightly in the following year.

There were significant differences in the average prices for the major foreign markets. In 2018, the country with the highest price was Russia ($18,124 per tonne), while the average price for exports to Guyana ($42 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was recorded for supplies to the Philippines, while the prices for the other major destinations experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports into the U.S.

Roasted coffee substitutes imports into the U.S. totaled 2K tonnes in 2018, increasing by 21% against the previous year. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +7.6% over the period from 2013 to 2018; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2015 with an increase of 23% against the previous year. In that year, roasted coffee substitutes imports attained their peak of 2K tonnes. From 2016 to 2018, the growth of roasted coffee substitutes imports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, roasted coffee substitutes imports totaled $6.5M (IndexBox estimates) in 2018. The total import value increased at an average annual rate of +7.0% over the period from 2013 to 2018; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 when imports increased by 22% y-o-y. In that year, roasted coffee substitutes imports attained their peak and are likely to continue its growth in the immediate term.

Imports by Country

In 2018, France (905 tonnes) constituted the largest roasted coffee substitutes supplier to the U.S., with a 46% share of total imports. Moreover, roasted coffee substitutes imports from France exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest supplier, Thailand (350 tonnes), threefold. The third position in this ranking was occupied by India (218 tonnes), with a 11% share.

From 2013 to 2018, the average annual growth rate of volume from France totaled +4.7%. The remaining supplying countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: Thailand (+174.1% per year) and India (+27.6% per year).

In value terms, France ($1.6M), Thailand ($1.3M) and Germany ($1.1M) appeared to be the largest roasted coffee substitutes suppliers to the U.S., with a combined 63% share of total imports.

Thailand (+237.8% per year) experienced the highest rates of growth with regard to imports, among the main suppliers over the last five-year period, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices by Country

In 2018, the average roasted coffee substitutes import price amounted to $3,303 per tonne, remaining stable against the previous year. In general, the roasted coffee substitutes import price, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2016 when the average import price increased by 22% y-o-y. The import price peaked at $3,393 per tonne in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2018, import prices remained at a lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major supplying countries. In 2018, the country with the highest price was Germany ($10,404 per tonne), while the price for France ($1,766 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Thailand, while the prices for the other major suppliers experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform