U.S. container imports are projected to drop 5.6% in 2025 as newly imposed tariffs disrupt global trade flows, according to the latest Global Port Tracker report from the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates.

Read also: US Import Tariffs on Containerized Goods Drop to 21%

The tariffs, now in effect after months of delays and negotiations, are pressuring supply chains, raising consumer prices, and creating uncertainty for businesses. “Fewer imports will mean fewer goods on store shelves, higher prices, and more strain on small businesses,” said NRF’s Jonathan Gold, who called for trade agreements that lower, not raise, tariffs.

Hackett Associates’ founder Ben Hackett described the current policy as erratic, with “on-again, off-again tariffs” prompting importers to rush goods in ahead of tariff hikes, distorting trade patterns.

In June, major U.S. ports handled 1.96 million TEUs—down 8.4% from last year. July volumes surged to an estimated 2.3 million TEUs as retailers raced to beat August tariff deadlines. But steep year-over-year declines are forecast for the remainder of 2025, with the sharpest drop—21.1%—expected in November, potentially marking the lowest monthly import total since April 2023.

The first half of 2025 saw a 3.6% year-over-year rise in volumes, but the projected second-half slump would push the annual total to 24.1 million TEUs, down from 25.5 million in 2024.

A separate BIMCO report shows U.S. tariff rates spiked to 26% in April before settling at 17.6% in August. The tariff shifts drove a 10% jump in early-year imports, followed by a 6.2% decline in May and June.

Spot freight rates from Shanghai to the U.S. have since plunged over 60%, signaling further weakness ahead. Analyst John McCown called the downturn “one of the most striking year-to-year changes in the history of container shipping” and warned it could ripple through the U.S. economy, fueling inflation and slowing growth.