U.S. container import demand is expected to remain subdued through at least early fall, as retailers scale back inventory replenishment amid growing economic uncertainty and continued instability linked to the Iran crisis.

Read also: Import Demand and Inventory Trends Reshape Freight Market in 2026

New projections from the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates indicate that while imports may post temporary year-over-year gains in May and June, the broader trend points toward weakening cargo volumes and a more cautious retail environment heading into the second half of 2026.

According to the latest Global Port Tracker report, retailers are becoming increasingly reluctant to aggressively rebuild inventories as supply chains continue to grapple with tariff disruptions, inflationary pressures, and the lingering fallout from the Strait of Hormuz crisis.

The projected rise in imports during May and June is largely being driven by weak comparison figures from last year, when cargo volumes fell sharply after the Trump administration announced its “Liberation Day” tariffs in April 2025.

NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said the apparent rebound does not reflect a genuine recovery in demand.

“The numbers show a year-over-year increase for the next two months, but that’s only because of the sharp fall-off in imports after ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs were announced in April 2025,” Gold said. “With inflation rising and consumer confidence falling amid global economic uncertainty driven by the conflict in Iran, the overall trend of lower imports is expected to continue after that.”

The report suggests that retailers remain cautious despite the approach of the traditional peak shipping season, with many companies hesitant to commit to large-scale restocking efforts.

Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett said weakening forward demand and rising geopolitical risks are increasingly clouding the outlook for the industry.

“Containerized imports in the first quarter were down year over year, and forward demand is weakening,” Hackett noted. “Stalling re-stocking efforts and rising geopolitical tensions are increasingly clouding the outlook.”

Major U.S. ports covered by the report handled 2.16 million TEU in March, the latest month with finalized figures available. That represented a modest 0.6% increase compared to the same month last year and a strong 13.6% rise from February, when Lunar New Year factory shutdowns and severe weather disrupted cargo activity.

However, analysts believe the improvement is unlikely to last.

April imports are projected at 2.13 million TEU, down 3.6% year over year. Volumes in May are forecast to reach 2.17 million TEU, an 11.1% increase, while June imports are expected at 2.13 million TEU, up 8.2%.

Beyond June, however, the outlook deteriorates again.

July imports are forecast to decline 7.8% year over year to 2.2 million TEU, followed by a 5.5% drop in August and a further 1.3% decline in September.

The weaker projections reflect growing concern across both the retail and maritime sectors that consumer spending could soften further as inflation pressures intensify and global supply chains remain exposed to geopolitical disruption.

Ongoing instability around the Strait of Hormuz has added another layer of uncertainty for cargo owners already facing elevated transportation costs, volatile fuel prices, and increasingly complex transit planning.

Even with the short-term rebound expected in May and June, total U.S. imports for the first half of 2026 are projected to reach 12.59 million TEU—just 0.5% higher than the same period last year.

That follows an already sluggish 2025, when total imports stood at 25.4 million TEU, slightly below the 25.5 million TEU recorded in 2024.

For ocean carriers, terminal operators, and logistics providers hoping for a stronger second-half recovery, the latest projections suggest the industry may instead face another volatile and uneven peak season shaped by cautious consumer demand and persistent geopolitical uncertainty.