A prolonged downturn in the movement of physical goods indicates the U.S. economy is in a goods recession, according to an analysis of freight data from FreightWaves. The high-frequency data from the SONAR platform reveals that while consumer spending on services may be steady, the flow of goods critical to manufacturing, retail, and industrial sectors has stalled.

Read also: Leveraging Freight Tech for Smarter Global Trade Operations

A Turbulent Ride: Freight Markets Since 2018

The freight market showed signs of strain beginning in 2018. By 2019, the industry entered a “trucking blood bath” recession characterized by overcapacity and falling rates that eliminated many smaller carriers. The COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 initially caused a supply chain freeze, but this was followed by a boom driven by stimulus checks, e-commerce surges, and inventory restocking, which pushed the Outbound Tender Volume Index (OTVI.USA) to record highs in 2021-2022. During this period, truck driver employment spiked to over 1.6 million.

Starting in March 2022, a “Great Freight Recession” began as inflation rose and consumer spending shifted back to services, causing freight volumes to drop sharply. The OTVI plunged, hitting a low in 2023, while driver employment started a gradual decline. A potential recovery emerged in the second half of 2024, with OTVI beginning to tick above truck driver employment, suggesting the market was moving toward balance.

The 2025 Plunge: Killing the Recovery

The recovery was short-lived, as 2025 has seen a severe downturn. Freight demand, measured by the OTVI, has fallen to levels not seen since the depths of the pandemic, currently sitting at approximately 9,420, which is down 18% year-over-year. Simultaneously, truck driver employment has reverted to pre-pandemic levels, around 1.523 million, indicating ongoing adjustments but also persistent overcapacity in the industry.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform