Containerized imports at major U.S. ports are forecast to remain below year-ago levels through at least May, as slowing global trade, economic headwinds, and continued policy uncertainty weigh on demand, according to new industry data.

The National Retail Federation’s Global Port Tracker projects a modest, seasonal uptick in January volumes to 2.11 million TEUs as retailers rush shipments ahead of Lunar New Year factory shutdowns in Asia. Even so, imports are expected to be 5.3% lower than in January 2025.

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February volumes are forecast at 1.94 million TEUs, down 4.6% year over year, followed by a sharper decline in March to 1.88 million TEUs, a 12.4% drop. April is projected at 2.03 million TEUs, down 8.1%, before May is expected to post the first annual increase since last summer.

Retailers continue to face uncertainty tied to U.S. trade policy and tariffs, which drove widespread front-loading of imports in 2025, according to Hackett Associates. Full-year 2025 container volumes are estimated at 25.4 million TEUs, slightly below 2024 levels.

The softer outlook aligns with the United Nations’ World Economic Situation and Prospects 2026 report, which projects global growth of 2.7% this year as trade barriers persist and investment remains subdued.

For ports and ocean carriers, the fading impact of front-loaded shipments points to a more challenging environment in early 2026, marked by fragile demand and heightened trade uncertainty.