According to data from FreightWaves SONAR, bookings for containers bound for the United States, measured by the Inbound Ocean TEUs Volume Index, have been notably weaker this fall, averaging roughly 11% below 2024 levels since September.

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The index, however, remains more than 30% higher than 2019, a year which also featured concerns about escalating U.S.-China trade tensions. In May 2019, tariffs were raised from 10% to 25% on $200 billion of Chinese goods, with another round levied in August, though some were later rolled back. These actions resulted in a modest increase in orders but did not spark the panic buying seen in more recent years.

The COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020 triggered the most extreme surge in container imports in history. From mid-2020 through the first half of 2022, shippers shifted inventory management from “just in time” to “just in case.” As goods consumption cooled, many companies were left with excess inventory.

Companies then reduced orders below restocking levels for about a year before resuming imports at a robust pace in late 2023. The next major disruption occurred in October 2023 with the Hamas attack on Israel, which ultimately forced vessels to divert from the Suez Canal. This diversion constrained maritime capacity and pushed trans-Pacific spot rates for 40-foot containers above $7,000 in the summer of 2024, the highest levels since 2022. The disruptions pushed some shippers back toward a “just in case” strategy, though not to pandemic-era extremes.

As Middle East conflict concerns eased in late 2024, tariffs became the primary driver of import-volume volatility in 2025. Erratic implementations and pauses disrupted import seasonality, contributing to an unusually early peak in orders in June and July and a mid-year surge in spot rates.

As a result of this early ordering, container import demand has fallen back to levels consistent with slight inventory reduction rather than restocking. The latest Logistics Managers’ Index inventory reading of 49.5 in October, indicating a slight contraction, supports this notion.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform