The Trump administration has returned over $100 billion to U.S. businesses and importers that paid its global tariffs, and the funds are already stimulating economic activity. According to a Wall Street Journal tally, 40 S&P 500 companies have recorded $9.6 billion in refunds, with Apple alone reporting nearly $2.2 billion. Other major recipients include Nike, FedEx, Amazon, and General Motors.

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Apollo Chief Economist Torsten Slok noted that tariff refunds are boosting both corporate earnings and GDP growth. He estimated the refunds will contribute about 0.2 percentage point to third-quarter GDP growth, which the Atlanta Fed tracks at 4.3%. This marks a sharp acceleration from the second quarter’s 1.5% gain, which was skewed by high AI-related imports, and the first quarter’s 2.1%.

In the current quarter, tariff refunds are combining with other positive factors such as the ongoing AI spending boom, tax cuts from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, and the reshoring of U.S. manufacturing. Slok added that the U.S. economy continues to be supported by a growing set of tailwinds.

The surprisingly weak July jobs report does not signal a loss of momentum, according to Slok, who attributed sharp drops in government payrolls and hospitality employment to seasonal adjustment quirks. Excluding those sectors, the economy would have added 70,000 jobs, in line with Wall Street’s consensus, instead of losing 23,000. Additionally, jobless claims have hovered around 200,000 per week, and job openings have been rising over the past six months.

Slok concluded that the market is underestimating how strong growth is right now, and as a result, rates will stay higher for longer. The refunds so far represent about 60% of the $166 billion collected under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, which the Supreme Court struck down in February.

Some U.S. consumers are filing lawsuits against companies to demand a share of the refunds, while firms such as Amazon, FedEx, and UPS have vowed to return the funds to customers. Earlier this month, Bank of America analysts noted that retailers are using the returned money to fund promotions and offset freight and other supply-chain costs.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform