U.S. President Donald Trump is using tariffs as a foreign policy weapon once again — this time aiming to pressure Russia into ending its war in Ukraine by targeting its oil buyers.

Read also: Trump Threatens Higher Tariffs on India Over Russian Oil Purchases

With a Friday deadline for Moscow to agree to a ceasefire or face “secondary tariffs” on its oil customers, the Trump administration has already imposed a 25% tariff on Indian goods over New Delhi’s purchases of Russian crude — the first direct financial penalty against Russia in Trump’s second term. China, Russia’s largest oil customer, could face similar measures later this week.

Trump has previously used tariff threats to advance non-trade goals, including pushing Denmark over Greenland, pressuring Mexico and Canada to curb fentanyl shipments, and penalizing Brazil over domestic politics.

While secondary tariffs could hurt Russia — the world’s second-largest oil exporter — they carry significant risks for Trump, potentially driving up global oil prices ahead of next year’s U.S. midterm elections and complicating trade negotiations with China and India.

Russia has already adapted to previous Western sanctions, rerouting crude to Asian buyers at discounted rates. Analysts doubt that new tariffs will push President Vladimir Putin to make peace. “Theoretically, cutting off Indian and Chinese oil purchases would hit Russia hard,” said Eugene Rumer of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “But that isn’t going to happen.”

India and China both have strategic leverage over the U.S. — from pharmaceuticals to rare minerals — and argue their oil purchases comply with the existing G7 price cap on Russian crude. Cutting these flows could spike global oil prices, as happened in early 2022 when fears over Russia sent crude near $130 a barrel. Analysts warn prices could jump to the $80s or higher, and Russia could retaliate by shutting pipelines critical to global supply.

Economists note that higher fuel prices could ripple through the global economy, increasing inflation and threatening U.S. growth. “Of all Trump’s tariff gambits, this one could resonate most with voters in principle,” said Cullen Hendrix of the Peterson Institute. “It’s also the one with the biggest downside risks.”