Shippers are confronting a persistent shortage of truck capacity at a time when they most need room to expand volumes, according to ACT Research’s June For-Hire Trucking Index. The report indicates that freight rates remain near record levels while capacity continues to tighten, as sales of Class 8 tractors stay below replacement levels and new federal driver rules reduce the available labor pool.

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Freight Rates Remain Elevated Despite Monthly Dip

The Freight Rate Index, which measures monthly carrier responses on a diffusion scale where 50 indicates no change, fell 9.5 points from May to a seasonally adjusted 70.2 in June. That decline follows May’s record reading of 79.7. Even with the pullback, June’s figure ranks among the strongest in the survey’s nearly 17-year history. ACT Research noted that market balance has shifted decisively in favor of fleets this year, and tight market dynamics are expected to continue pushing rates higher.

Capacity Index Hits 43-Month High

The Capacity Index rose 1.5 points to 55.0 in June, reaching a 43-month high. This increase reflects expansion by larger, well-run fleets rather than a broad recovery in capacity, as Class 8 sales remain below replacement levels across the industry. ACT Research anticipates that expansion will accelerate further in the third and fourth quarters as gains in spot rates flow through to contract rates and carriers replace aging equipment in preparation for EPA27 emissions rules.

Driver Availability Remains a Bottleneck

The Driver Availability Index edged up to 34.1 in June from 32.6 in May, but the reading remains deeply depressed. A wave of new regulations from the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration—including restrictions on nondomiciled commercial driver’s licenses, tighter enforcement of electronic logging devices and registration fraud, and closures of driver schools—sent the index to a five-year low of 30.4 in April after the nondomiciled rules took effect in mid-March. The modest upticks in May and June suggest near-term stabilization, but ACT Research expects additional driver scarcity to support higher freight rates.

Fleet Purchase Intentions Remain Subdued

Fleet purchase intentions held flat month-over-month, with 47% of carriers planning equipment purchases in the next three months, below June’s historical average of 53%. Two factors are restraining fleets: carrier profit margins entering 2026 were at levels not seen since the Great Recession, which has gutted capital spending, and the roughly six-month lag between spot and contract rate gains left large carriers with limited margin improvement in the first quarter. ACT Research expects that gap to close as rate gains continue flowing through.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform