Container freight rates on the transpacific trade to the US west coast have bucked the broader market downturn, posting gains this week even as other major east-west routes extended their decline.

According to Drewry’s World Container Index (WCI), spot rates from Shanghai to Los Angeles rose 2% week on week to $2,930 per 40ft container. The increase places rates roughly 34% above levels recorded just before the outbreak of the Iran conflict.

Read also: Asia-US Transpacific Container Rates Slide in November 2025

Other benchmarks reflect a similar trend. Data from Freightos shows rates on the Far East–US west coast route at $2,675 per 40ft, with analysts noting this represents a 45% jump compared to pre-war pricing.

The sharp escalation in rates traces back to the early days of the conflict. During the TPM conference in Long Beach in late March, one freight forwarder reported that 2026 contract rates surged by as much as $1,000 per container almost overnight following the start of US and Israeli strikes on Iran.

While initially met with skepticism, carriers now appear to have successfully pushed through these increases. Analysts point to a combination of disciplined pricing strategies and careful capacity management as key drivers behind the sustained rate strength.

Xeneta data indicates that spot rates from the Far East to both US coasts have climbed by an average of 50% since the conflict began. According to market analysts, part of this rise can be attributed to effective capacity controls implemented after the Chinese New Year lull. However, the scale of the increase also reflects carriers capitalizing on heightened uncertainty in the market.

Shipper behavior has also played a role. Early signs suggest companies are beginning to replenish inventories while also advancing shipments ahead of potential disruptions later in the year. With peak season approaching in the third quarter, concerns over congestion at major Southeast Asian hubs are prompting a “ship early” strategy among importers.

Major brands are already adjusting their logistics strategies. For example, Adidas is reportedly front-loading cargo volumes ahead of the upcoming World Cup in the Americas, reflecting a broader trend of risk mitigation among shippers seeking to avoid future supply chain bottlenecks.

Despite the strength on the west coast route, the transpacific market remains uneven. Rates from Shanghai to New York slipped 2% this week to $3,483 per 40ft, highlighting divergent pricing dynamics within the trade lane.

Further upward pressure may still be on the horizon. CMA CGM has announced a $2,000 per 40ft peak season surcharge on shipments from Asia to the US, which could drive additional rate increases in the coming weeks.

Meanwhile, conditions on the Asia-Europe trades remain softer. The WCI recorded a 1% decline on both the Shanghai–Rotterdam and Shanghai–Genoa routes, with rates settling at $2,127 and $3,039 per 40ft, respectively.

Carriers have begun responding to persistent overcapacity in these lanes, with multiple blank sailings scheduled in the near term. Capacity is expected to fall by 3% month on month on Asia–North Europe routes and by 10% on Asia–Mediterranean services.

Even so, the outlook remains mixed. While rates into Europe peaked several weeks ago, capacity levels have risen modestly, creating a more balanced but uncertain market environment.

Looking ahead, attention is turning to mid-May, when carriers are expected to introduce new freight all kinds (FAK) rate increases. Pricing targets vary significantly across operators. Hapag-Lloyd and CMA CGM are aiming for around $3,500 per 40ft to North Europe and approximately $4,500 to the Mediterranean, while MSC has announced a flat target of $4,400 per 40ft across both regions.

Although Drewry expects Asia-Europe rates to stabilize in the short term, the success of these planned increases will provide a clearer signal of carrier pricing power in the weeks ahead.

Overall, while much of the global container market continues to soften, the transpacific trade is demonstrating resilience—driven by geopolitical disruption, strategic capacity management, and a shift in shipper behavior toward preemptive cargo movement.