Trade Flows To Stimulate U.S. Economy, HSBC Report Shows
Trade expansion is expected to boost the American economy, according to the latest HSBC Global Connections Trade Forecast. Increased trade liberalization and growing demand to and from emerging and advanced Asian markets will drive trade growth contributions to overall GDP.
Trade agreements including the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP), the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and the WTO Trade Facilitation Agreement will open markets and have the potential to eliminate barriers to trade. For businesses this could mean opportunities for new product development and new trade partners.
Expansion into high growth markets, including China, could mark an economic boom for American trade.
Asian Markets Expected to Dominate U.S Export Demand
The report projects that by 2030 China will surpass Mexico as the second largest American export trading partner, with Mexico dropping into third place. During the same period Korea is expected to become the fourth largest market for U.S. exports, followed by Brazil, pushing Japan out of the top five.
“Strong economic growth in faster growing Asian economies represents a major business opportunity for U.S. exporters,” says Derrick Ragland, executive vice president and head of U.S. Middle Market Corporate Banking, HSBC Bank USA, N.A.
“It’s up to American businesses to capitalize on this trend… and every indication is that they will.
The report also finds that industrial machinery and transport equipment are expected to remain the major American exports in the foreseeable future and are expected to contribute about 40 percent of the projected growth in total exports through 2030. Other important drivers of exports will include high-value items such as scientific apparatus, chemicals, and information and communications technology (ICT) goods, as well as petroleum products and plastics.
Canada and Mexico Remain the Top Two U.S. Trade Import Partners
While imports into the U.S. closely mirror that of exports (industrial machinery and transport equipment), these two categories together with ICT, will collectively account for almost half of total import growth for the U.S. in the decade leading up to 2030. Clothing, apparel and petroleum products are expected to account for around 15 percent of total import growth in this period.
The top four largest trade corridors for American imports are expected to remain unchanged, led by China, Canada, Mexico and Japan, respectively. The report projects that India will overtake Germany for the fifth position by 2030. The fastest-growing countries for U.S. imports over the long term are projected to be China, Vietnam,—with growth at about 9 percent annually for both countries— India (up 8 percent) and Mexico (up 7 percent).