Supply chain uncertainty remains a reality in 2026, but after a year of immense change, companies are on firmer footing to face the challenges ahead, according to Supply Chain Dive. Driven largely by tariffs and new regulatory structures, retailers and manufacturers forced to be reactive in 2025 have adjusted, setting the stage for bigger and bolder moves this year, experts told the publication.

Read also: Top 10 Supply Chain and Logistics Technology Trends for 2026

“I think there was a lot of wait and watch, but that seems to be ending. And so I just see companies ready to make change again,” Dustin Burke, co-leader for manufacturing and supply chain at Boston Consulting Group, said. However, readiness doesn’t mean companies won’t encounter turbulence over the next 12 months.

“Winners in 2026 will really be those that recognize that there are real critical decision points, inflection points that are happening, that they recognize them early, and they can convert them into action to help reshape those operations quickly,” Per Hong, global lead of Kearney Foresight and a partner within Kearney’s strategic operations and performance practice, said.

1. Geopolitical risks will push fragmentation and diversification

U.S. President Donald Trump’s wide-ranging tariff regime will continue to test supply chains in 2026. While the Supreme Court’s pending decision on Trump’s power to impose levies could undermine the current order, the White House has instituted numerous sector-specific duties and has cemented others through various trade agreements.

“We’ll continue to see some volatility and risk related to tariff structures, which impacts how companies think about trade and maybe makes it harder to plan for longer term, more structural moves in supply chains,” Burke said. In the face of this ongoing volatility, companies will continue to lean on more short-term tactics, such as frontloading cargo ahead of tariff implementation dates.

“I think we’ll see a normalization of that in 2026 and perhaps a bit of a return to more of the kind of usual flows of inventory,” Jess Dankert, VP of supply chain at the Retail Industry Leaders Association, said. Beyond tariffs, the looming review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement this summer will serve as a critical turning point for supply chains within the three countries, according to Hong.

2. Economic turbulence will test supply chains

Overall consumer spending remained resilient in 2025 but is expected to decelerate this year as affordability concerns and a softening labor market stress shoppers’ wallets, according to a December report from Moody’s. The ongoing pressure for consumers will put supply chains to the test in 2026 from a planning and pricing perspective.

The sluggish housing market is also expected to continue having a trickle-down effect on supply chains in 2026, per Rick Jordon, senior managing director and co-leader of U.S. business transformation at FTI Consulting. Companies could also feel the impact of deteriorating economic performance across their suppliers as global debt levels continue to rise.

“It becomes less about a single debt crisis and more about how do I manage my overall viability,” Hong said.

3. Cost optimization will be a top priority

With continued uncertainty driven by fluctuating trade and economic factors, costs are expected to rise, forcing companies to prioritize cost optimization in their supply chains more than usual in 2026, experts said. As an example, Burke expects many companies will optimize their global manufacturing and distribution networks to offset underutilized capacity.

“Transportation cost is like car insurance: You should quote it out every couple years because if you’re not requoting your car insurance every couple years, you’re probably paying more than you need to,” Matt Stekier, a principal at Plante Moran, said. Modal flexibility will also be a critical tool in maintaining supply chain resilience, Mike Short, president of global forwarding at C.H. Robinson Worldwide, wrote in a November article.

4. AI hype will face recalibration

Every sector continues to chase the promise of artificial intelligence, but 2026 will likely be an inflection point in the technology’s future within the supply chain. Experts say many companies have not yet achieved the immediate large-scale impact from AI investments they had hoped for, causing leaders to recalibrate timetables and expectations.

“We’re seeing supply chains becoming a little bit more in self-correcting, where AI predicts disruptions, optimizes the flows, and hopefully automates the planning,” Abe Eshkenazi, CEO of the Association for Supply Chain Management, said, adding, “The unfortunate part is that while the investment is there significantly on AI, the return on investment just isn’t there yet.” Meanwhile, generative AI is also proliferating throughout the supply chain industry, with 91% of mid-market manufacturers using it in some capacity, according to a West Monroe report.

5. Companies will contend with supply chain workforce challenges

From the factory floor to the boardroom, the supply chain workforce will continue to undergo a dramatic shift in 2026 as companies contend with aging leadership, labor shortages and the need to introduce new skills. Continued investments in AI and automation, along with staffing restrictions due to immigration regulations, are creating a deep divergence in labor availability, costs and productivity.

“So for supply chain leaders, labor is no longer a stable input,” Hong said. “It’s really a strategic constraint.” Companies will continue to prioritize developing and retaining talent, as well as upskilling employees to optimize production alongside new technologies such as AI.

“And so you’ve got powerful systems with talent that don’t understand, or critically think, or problem solve, the data coming in, the data coming out,” Eshkenazi said. “What we’re promoting is that your investment in talent ought to be commensurate with your investment in technology.”

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform