Ocean carriers are entering the second half of the year facing falling freight rates, rising tariffs, and limited prospects for a meaningful peak season. While some analysts see a faint chance of a late-year rate bump, the overall picture remains bleak.

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Peter Sand, chief analyst at Xeneta, told The Loadstar that any uptick would likely be modest and confined to the spot market. “We do not expect a normal peak season, but we are not ruling out a muted one,” he said. “Rates could tick up in October or November as peak season surcharges take hold.”

Recent data from Drewry, Xeneta, and the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) confirm continued pressure on Asia–US routes. The Drewry World Container Index (WCI) showed Shanghai–Los Angeles rates down 2% to $2,494 per 40ft, and Shanghai–New York down 5% to $3,638. SCFI data indicated steeper declines on the US west coast, falling 3.51% to $1,759 per 40ft, with east coast rates down 2.61% to $2,769. Xeneta’s XSI registered a 4.92% drop to $1,913 per 40ft on the west coast route, though this marked a slower rate of decline than the previous week.

Drewry’s Hind Chitty noted that while spot rates are still falling, the pace of decline has eased as carriers use blanked sailings to manage capacity. “This offers only limited support,” she said, pointing to shifting trade flows, tariffs, and ongoing vessel deliveries that risk deepening overcapacity.

Elsewhere, SCFI data showed a slight increase on Asia–South Africa routes to $3,008 per 40ft. However, Maersk plans to discontinue direct services to South Africa from October, leaving MSC as the only carrier with direct calls. Forwarders warn that rerouting via Europe will increase transit times, costs, and surcharges, eroding South Africa’s competitiveness. Some also link Maersk’s move to strained US–South Africa trade relations.

Looking ahead, Sand said carriers have few tools left to stabilize rates beyond blank sailings, vessel slow-steaming, and fleet reshuffling. Scrapping older ships may help balance supply, but any meaningful impact is unlikely before 2026.

Chitty is less optimistic than Sand about a late-year peak. “Forwarders do not see a peak season this year,” she said, emphasizing that continued vessel deliveries will weigh on rates well into next year.

Despite resilient demand, freight rates remain under pressure across most trades — signaling that carriers’ mitigation strategies are unlikely to reverse the downward trend any time soon.