U.S. container import volumes are coming under increasing pressure from trade policy shifts and higher fuel costs, even as tensions involving Iran have yet to significantly disrupt cargo flows through the country’s major ports. This is according to the latest Global Port Tracker report released by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.

The report highlights tariffs as the most immediate constraint on import demand. Retailers are continuing to adjust to a temporary 10% global tariff introduced by Donald Trump under the Trade Act of 1974, alongside revisions to Section 232 duties on metals and new tariffs targeting pharmaceutical goods and inputs.

Read also: From Tariffs to Footprints: Why Trade Volatility Is Reshaping Industrial Strategy in 2026

Although the ongoing situation in the Strait of Hormuz has not directly reduced U.S. container volumes, the broader supply chain remains vulnerable. Rising bunker fuel costs, equipment imbalances, vessel diversions, and declining consumer purchasing power linked to higher gasoline prices are all contributing to mounting pressure.

Jonathan Gold of the National Retail Federation noted that even limited direct trade exposure to the Middle East does not insulate the U.S. supply chain from disruption. He emphasized that instability in any part of the global logistics network can ripple outward, increasing transportation costs and reducing consumer spending capacity.

Similarly, Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates, said the operational impact on U.S. imports has so far been modest, given that relatively little containerized cargo originates from the region. However, he warned that continued disruption in the Strait of Hormuz is driving up global fuel prices and could strain fuel availability at key Asian ports if the situation persists.

He added that while U.S. ports are not facing fuel shortages, domestic fuel pricing remains tied to global markets. As a result, higher bunker costs are translating directly into increased shipping expenses for both imports and exports, with broader inflationary consequences.

In terms of volumes, U.S. ports tracked by Global Port Tracker handled 1.95 million TEU in February, excluding data from the Port of New York and New Jersey. This represents a 7.5% decline from January and a 4.2% drop year-over-year, reflecting the typical seasonal slowdown linked to Lunar New Year factory closures in Asia.

Looking ahead, March import volumes are projected at 1.97 million TEU, down 8.3% from a year earlier. April is forecast at 2.08 million TEU (down 5.6%), followed by a rebound in May to 2.09 million TEU (up 7.3%) and June at 2.1 million TEU (up 6.9%). Volumes are then expected to ease again, with July projected at 2.2 million TEU (down 8%) and August at 2.18 million TEU (down 6%).

If these projections hold, total U.S. container imports for the first half of 2026 would reach 12.3 million TEU, a 1.8% decline compared to 12.53 million TEU recorded during the same period in 2025.

The anticipated gains in May and June are largely attributed to base effects, following a sharp decline in imports during those months last year after the announcement of “Liberation Day” tariffs.

Overall, while geopolitical tensions have not yet caused a direct drop in U.S. import volumes, prolonged energy market disruption is expected to filter through supply chains—raising freight costs and eventually impacting consumer prices.