U.S. container imports are projected to remain below last year’s levels through the first half of 2026 as shifting tariff policies and geopolitical tensions continue to cloud the global trade outlook, according to the latest Global Port Tracker report released by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.

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The forecast highlights the growing uncertainty facing retailers and supply chain planners as U.S. trade policy evolves following a recent decision by the U.S. Supreme Court that invalidated tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). The ruling comes alongside new tariff measures introduced by the Donald Trump administration and rising geopolitical risks linked to tensions involving Iran.

According to Jonathan Gold, vice president for supply chain and customs policy at the National Retail Federation, businesses continue to face challenges planning their operations amid rapidly changing trade rules.

“The Supreme Court has struck down IEEPA tariffs but other tariffs have already been announced and others will be coming, so uncertainty continues for retailers,” Gold said, emphasizing the need for clearer and more predictable trade policy.

Following the court ruling, the Trump administration announced a temporary 10% global tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, with officials indicating that the rate could rise to 15%. The administration has also signaled that additional trade investigations under Section 301 may be launched, further complicating the outlook for U.S. importers.

Port activity already reflects the softer trade environment. U.S. ports handled 2.08 million TEU in January, a 3.8% increase from December but a 6.4% decline compared with January 2025. The data excludes figures from the Port of New York and New Jersey and Port of Miami, which had not yet reported results at the time of the analysis.

February volumes are estimated at 2.01 million TEU, representing a 1.3% drop from a year earlier. The slowdown is expected to intensify in the coming months, with March imports projected to reach 1.91 million TEU—down 11.2% year over year—followed by 2.03 million TEU in April, an 8.1% decline from the same period in 2025.

The report anticipates some recovery later in the spring as year-over-year comparisons become easier. Imports are forecast to rise to 2.09 million TEU in May and 2.1 million TEU in June, partly reflecting weaker cargo volumes recorded last year after the announcement of new tariffs in April 2025.

July imports are expected to reach about 2.2 million TEU, which would still represent an 8% decline compared with the same month in 2025.

Altogether, the projections suggest U.S. container imports will total about 12.21 million TEU during the first half of 2026, a 2.5% drop from the 12.53 million TEU recorded during the same period in 2025. For context, total U.S. imports reached 25.4 million TEU in 2025, slightly below the 25.5 million TEU recorded in 2024.

While trade policy remains the primary driver behind the weaker outlook, analysts are also monitoring the broader economic implications of rising tensions in the Middle East.

Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates, noted that the immediate impact on U.S.-bound container trade is likely to be limited because relatively little cargo imported into the United States originates in the Middle East. However, he warned that prolonged instability could influence the market indirectly through energy prices.

Hackett said sustained increases in oil and gasoline prices could fuel inflation, reduce consumer spending, and place additional pressure on manufacturing activity—factors that would eventually weigh on import demand.

The Global Port Tracker report monitors cargo flows across major U.S. container gateways including the Port of Los Angeles, Port of Long Beach, Port of Oakland, Port of Seattle, Port of Tacoma, Port of Virginia, Port of Charleston, Port of Savannah, Port Everglades, Port of Jacksonville, and Port of Houston.

With trade policy still evolving and geopolitical tensions adding new risks to global supply chains, retailers and logistics providers face an increasingly complex environment for managing import flows in the months ahead.