IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘Italy – Cereal Germ – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends And Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

The revenue of the cereal germ market in Italy amounted to $61M in 2018, rising by 2.9% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers’ margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). In general, cereal germ consumption continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2011 with an increase of 96% y-o-y. In that year, the cereal germ market attained its peak level of $74M. From 2012 to 2018, the growth of the cereal germ market failed to regain its momentum.

Production in Italy

In 2018, the production of cereal germ in Italy amounted to 108K tonnes, rising by 2.6% against the previous year. Overall, cereal germ production, however, continues to indicate a temperate drop. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 when production volume increased by 88% y-o-y. Over the period under review, cereal germ production attained its maximum volume at 138K tonnes in 2008; however, from 2009 to 2018, production stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, cereal germ production totaled $29M in 2018 estimated in export prices. Overall, cereal germ production, however, continues to indicate a significant reduction. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2011 with an increase of 143% year-to-year. Over the period under review, cereal germ production reached its maximum level at $50M in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2018, production remained at a lower figure.

Exports from Italy

In 2018, the amount of cereal germ exported from Italy stood at 668 tonnes, declining by -6.2% against the previous year. Overall, cereal germ exports continue to indicate a drastic curtailment. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 with an increase of 93% against the previous year. Over the period under review, cereal germ exports attained their peak figure at 1.6K tonnes in 2007; however, from 2008 to 2018, exports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, cereal germ exports totaled $548K (IndexBox estimates) in 2018. In general, cereal germ exports continue to indicate a drastic downturn. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 with an increase of 54% y-o-y. Exports peaked at $1.2M in 2007; however, from 2008 to 2018, exports remained at a lower figure.

Exports by Country

Spain (144 tonnes) was the main destination for cereal germ exports from Italy, accounting for a 22% share of total exports. Moreover, cereal germ exports to Spain exceeded the volume sent to the second major destination, Poland (61 tonnes), twofold. The third position in this ranking was occupied by France (17 tonnes), with a 2.6% share.

From 2007 to 2018, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume to Spain totaled +7.3%. Exports to the other major destinations recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: Poland (+18.2% per year) and France (-20.6% per year).

In value terms, the largest markets for cereal germ exported from Italy were Poland ($78K), Spain ($40K) and the U.S. ($22K), with a combined 25% share of total exports.

Among the main countries of destination, Poland recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to exports, over the last eleven years, while the other leaders experienced a decline.

Export Prices by Country

In 2018, the average cereal germ export price amounted to $821 per tonne, surging by 5.9% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the cereal germ export price continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2011 when the average export price increased by 126% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the average export prices for cereal germ attained their maximum at $1,542 per tonne in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2018, export prices failed to regain their momentum.

Prices varied noticeably by the country of destination; the country with the highest price was India ($1,470 per tonne), while the average price for exports to Spain ($275 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was recorded for supplies to France, while the prices for the other major destinations experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports into Italy

In 2018, the cereal germ imports into Italy amounted to 90K tonnes, growing by 11% against the previous year. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.8% over the period from 2007 to 2018; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2011 with an increase of 40% y-o-y. Imports peaked in 2018 and are expected to retain its growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, cereal germ imports amounted to $33M (IndexBox estimates) in 2018. Over the period under review, cereal germ imports continue to indicate tangible growth. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2011 with an increase of 114% y-o-y. In that year, cereal germ imports attained their peak of $50M. From 2012 to 2018, the growth of cereal germ imports remained at a somewhat lower figure.

Imports by Country

Austria (29K tonnes), Hungary (27K tonnes) and Spain (12K tonnes) were the main suppliers of cereal germ imports to Italy, with a combined 75% share of total imports. Slovakia, France, Serbia and Slovenia lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 23%.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of imports, amongst the main suppliers, was attained by Serbia, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Austria ($8.6M), Hungary ($5.9M) and Spain ($3M) appeared to be the largest cereal germ suppliers to Italy, together accounting for 53% of total imports. These countries were followed by Slovakia, France, Slovenia and Serbia, which together accounted for a further 16%.

Serbia experienced the highest growth rate of imports, among the main suppliers over the last eleven years, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices by Country

The average cereal germ import price stood at $366 per tonne in 2018, going down by -6.8% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the cereal germ import price continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2008 when the average import price increased by 76% year-to-year. In that year, the average import prices for cereal germ attained their peak level of $697 per tonne. From 2009 to 2018, the growth in terms of the average import prices for cereal germ remained at a somewhat lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major supplying countries. In 2018, the country with the highest price was Slovakia ($323 per tonne), while the price for Serbia ($91 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Spain, while the prices for the other major suppliers experienced a decline.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform