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Strong Economic Data Masks Growing Strains from 2025 Tariffs

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Strong Economic Data Masks Growing Strains from 2025 Tariffs

The American economy demonstrated resilience in the second quarter of 2025, with GDP growing 3.8% according to a report on September 27, driven by a 2.5% increase in consumer spending.

Read also: Impact of Tariffs Muted by Exemptions and Consumer Resilience

However, this top-line growth is being propped up primarily by the highest earners, with recent research from the Boston Fed confirming a Moody’s Analytics finding that the top 10% of households account for half of all spending. Data from the IndexBox platform indicates that for the broader population, financial pressures are mounting. Average credit scores are declining for many Americans, who are also struggling with student loan repayments. “We’re living in a very dangerous situation, both politically and macroeconomically,” said analyst Kulyk. He warned of potential social unrest as middle- and upper-middle-class households making around $200,000 annually begin to feel the economic squeeze.

In the home goods sector, President Donald Trump’s tariff policies are creating “total turmoil,” according to Barbara Karpf, founder of DecoratorsBest. Companies are discontinuing product lines, and overseas manufacturers are left with goods stranded in production or transit. Karpf noted that even for businesses open to reshoring, the necessary machinery has become prohibitively expensive due to earlier tariffs, leading to workforce reductions and closures.

While Karpf’s company remains stable, she has paused hiring and investment plans. She expressed understanding for the administration’s goals but criticized the implementation. “The randomness of it and the lack of notice, this is not a way to do business,” she said. “You can’t grow or flourish, you just pray that you wake up and there’s not another tariff tweet.”

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform  

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Trump Tariffs Generate $300 Billion Annually but May not Last

The federal government is projected to collect roughly $300 billion annually from tariffs imposed under President Donald Trump, though Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi warns they are an unreliable long-term revenue source, especially in a recession. According to a report by Yahoo Finance, the average effective tariff rate has risen to 20.2%, the highest since 1911, based on data from Yale’s Budget Lab.

Read also: Impact of Trump’s Tariffs on Financial Markets

Despite the revenue boost, tariffs fall far short of closing the federal budget deficit, which is expected to reach nearly $2 trillion this year. Zandi, speaking on the Concord Coalition’s Facing the Future podcast, noted that tariffs can be easily reversed since they were enacted via executive order. Legal challenges also question their validity under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act.

Goldman Sachs estimates that 67% of tariff costs are passed on to consumers, functioning similarly to sales taxes. Meanwhile, IndexBox data shows weakening import demand in key sectors, further straining economic stability. Zandi cautioned against relying on tariffs for future fiscal planning, stating, “If you did do that, we’re setting ourselves up for an even more dire, darker fiscal situation down the road.”

With nearly half of U.S. industries already cutting jobs—a precursor to recession—Zandi predicts tariffs will likely be reduced during an economic downturn to alleviate consumer costs. The White House maintains that foreign exporters, not Americans, bear the brunt of tariffs.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform 

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EU and US Nearing Trade Agreement with New Tariff Plans

The European Union and the United States are reportedly on the verge of finalizing a trade agreement that would see the imposition of 15% tariffs on European imports. This development mirrors a recent deal struck by U.S. President Donald Trump with Japan, as detailed in a report by the Financial Times.

Read also: U.S. Imports Drop as Tariffs Slow Down Trade

According to sources, the proposed agreement includes waivers on certain products such as aircraft, spirits, and medical devices, aiming to mitigate the impact on specific industries. However, the EU is still preparing a substantial retaliatory tariff package worth up to 93 billion euros ($109 billion), which could be enacted if a deal is not reached by August 1.

Data from the IndexBox platform shows that in 2024, the U.S. imported over $55 billion worth of vehicles and automotive parts from Japan, while imports from the EU were valued at 47.3 billion euros ($55.45 billion). The trade imbalance highlights the significance of the automotive sector in ongoing negotiations. Both the White House and the European Union have yet to comment on the matter, and the details of the agreement remain unverified by Reuters.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform  

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Trump to Renegotiate USMCA to Protect American Jobs

U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick announced that President Donald Trump is expected to renegotiate the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) next year with the aim of safeguarding American jobs. Fox Business reported that Lutnick emphasized the importance of this move during an appearance on CBS’s “Face the Nation,” highlighting the upcoming joint review scheduled for July 2026. This review is a part of the agreement’s sunset clause, which mandates an evaluation every six years and sets the agreement to expire after 16 years unless extended by all parties.

Read also: US Dollar Surges as Trump Announces New Trade Tariffs

IndexBox data indicates that the USMCA has been pivotal in reshaping trade relations in North America, requiring 75 percent of automobile components to be manufactured within the United States, Canada, or Mexico to avoid tariffs. This provision has significantly impacted the automotive industry, fostering increased production within these countries. Additionally, the agreement has opened new markets for American agricultural products, including wheat, poultry, and eggs, enhancing export opportunities for U.S. farmers.

By renegotiating the USMCA, Trump aims to further bolster American manufacturing and agricultural sectors, ensuring that jobs remain within the U.S. and reducing dependency on foreign production. As the trade deadline looms, the White House has noted challenges with Canada, emphasizing the need for favorable terms that prioritize American workers.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform  

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Trump Administration Advances New Series of Tariffs Amid Global Trade Concerns

The Trump administration is advancing with a new series of tariffs that experts suggest could have a broad impact on imports. Bloomberg reports that the US Commerce Department is expected to announce the results of investigations into critical sectors such as semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, and minerals, potentially leading to new levies on foreign products.

Read also: Tariffs, Trade Wars, and Supply Chain Diversification Strategies

President Trump has been utilizing Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act to impose import taxes, notably on steel and aluminum, since 2018. These tariffs, currently set at 50%, affect nearly $200 billion worth of goods, including household items like fishing reels and brooms, according to Michigan State University estimates. This effort comes amid legal challenges to Trump’s earlier tariffs imposed in April, which are under scrutiny by the Supreme Court.

The administration’s actions have raised concerns among trading partners, complicating negotiations aimed at reducing existing tariffs. Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba emphasized the importance of careful progress in trade talks, reflecting the uncertainty surrounding the ongoing 232 investigations. The potential for tariffs on a wide range of goods, including those involving major companies like Apple Inc., further complicates the trade landscape.

IndexBox data highlights the significant economic impact of these tariffs, with the Producer Price Index for manufactured steel cans and tinware products rising by 8.7% this year. As the scope of the tariffs expands to include consumer goods, experts warn of possible inflationary effects and disruptions in supply chains.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform 

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Navigating U.S. Tariff Changes: Operational Strategies for Importers in 2025

Tariffs aren’t going away. In fact, in 2025, they’ve hardened into long-term strategy—used by both the Biden and Trump administrations not just as economic levers, but as geopolitical tools.

Read also: Tariffs, Trade Wars, and Supply Chain Diversification Strategies

Some duties have returned after exemptions expired. Others have been ratcheted up in key sectors like electronics, auto parts, and consumer goods. And new proposals—like Trump’s sweeping “baseline tariff” and the “Liberation Day” duties—have introduced a volatile layer of uncertainty for global suppliers.

The result? Waiting for clarity is no longer an option.

Importers today need operational flexibility more than ever. That means preparing for sudden cost shifts, adapting sourcing strategies, and rethinking logistics—not just to stay afloat, but to stay competitive.

This guide breaks down what’s changing in U.S. trade policy and what practical steps importers can take now to manage risk, preserve margins, and navigate the shifting terrain ahead.

What’s Changing in 2025

Tariffs are no longer reactive—they’re structural. And both major U.S. political camps are using them as tools of economic statecraft.

Under Biden:

  • Strategic targeting of critical sectors:
    • Solar materials and industrial metals now face 50% tariffs.
    • Tungsten, used in electronics and defense, hit with a 25% duty.
  • De minimis rule tightened, eliminating duty-free entry for Chinese parcels under $800. Platforms like Shein and Temu were directly impacted.
  • Focus is on supply chain resilience, encouraging domestic manufacturing and reducing reliance on Chinese inputs.

Under Trump (policy rollouts in early 2025):

  • 10% blanket tariff on all U.S. imports.
  • “Liberation Day” duties on Chinese goods:
    • Started at 10% in February
    • Reached 20% in March
    • Spiked to as high as 145% by April—then partially reversed after emergency talks.

Even after de-escalation, baseline tariffs on Chinese goods remain elevated (~30%), and retaliation from China adds complexity for U.S.-bound shipments routed through Asia.

Affected sectors include:

  • Electronics and semiconductors
  • Auto parts and industrial machinery
  • Consumer goods, especially from China, India, and Mexico

Compliance burdens are rising too:

  • Proof of substantial transformation is now critical for “Made in Mexico” or “Made in Vietnam” designations to hold.
  • U.S. Customs is increasing audits around country-of-origin documentation, especially for transshipped or multi-country finished goods. For importers selling into large marketplaces, this shift makes EDI setup and retail compliance non-negotiable.

    If you’re navigating Amazon’s requirements, this Amazon EDI integration guide explains what’s needed to get compliant, covering setup steps, document types, and how to align your backend systems to meet Amazon’s standards from day one.

The bottom line: tariffs aren’t a one-time adjustment. They’re a permanent variable in how global supply chains operate—and importers must build for that reality.

Cost Pressures Without Pricing Power

Importers are being squeezed from both ends.

On one side, elevated tariffs are driving input costs up by double digits. On the other, price sensitivity in U.S. markets—especially in retail and e-commerce—makes it nearly impossible to raise prices without losing share.

Retail giants like Walmart have reportedly asked Chinese suppliers to absorb the cost of duties themselves. For many brands, this means shrinking margins, extended cash cycles, or cutting corners to survive.

But the usual knee-jerk responses don’t work:

  • Slashing product quality undermines customer loyalty.
  • Choosing the cheapest logistics partner leads to missed deliveries and retailer chargebacks.
  • Delaying production or inventory restocks exposes brands to stockouts during peak demand.

Instead, successful importers are shifting focus from pricing power to structural efficiency. That means optimizing costs within the supply chain itself, before the goods even reach U.S. soil.

Many are turning to platforms like CrossBridge, which integrates warehousing, ERP, compliance, and vendor setup into one back-office system, giving importers more control, faster reaction time, and fewer operational blind spots.

How Retailers Are Reacting

Tariff volatility isn’t just squeezing importers—it’s reshaping how retailers choose and manage suppliers.

Take Walmart as a case study: when tariff costs surged in early 2025, they didn’t raise retail prices across the board. Instead, they asked suppliers—especially those sourcing from China—to absorb the cost increases. That kind of shift forces importers to choose: lower margins, new suppliers, or risk being cut.

More broadly, large retailers are:

  • Ramping up domestic sourcing to reduce exposure.
  • Prioritizing compliance-ready vendors with proven EDI performance and on-time delivery.
  • Requesting alternate origin certification—i.e., “Can this product ship from Mexico instead of China?”
  • Scrutinizing landed cost breakdowns before approving new SKUs.

This is tightening the gate. If your brand or supplier can’t demonstrate tariff readiness, real-time inventory visibility, and regulatory compliance, you’ll lose ground—even if your product is strong.

Importers with advanced back-office integration are better positioned to adapt. Those who can’t meet rising retailer standards are quietly being phased out.

E-Commerce Shakeup: De Minimis, Amazon, and Direct Imports

The $800 de minimis loophole was once the secret weapon of DTC brands and Chinese platforms alike. In 2025, that door is closing fast.

Regulatory changes now limit de minimis eligibility for Chinese-origin shipments, removing the duty-free pass that fueled ultra-cheap imports. This hits sellers using platforms like Shein, Temu, and even Amazon hard—especially if they’ve relied on cross-border drop shipping.

Here’s how e-commerce is shifting:

  • Shein opened U.S. distribution centers, accepting duties upfront and moving closer to the customer.
  • Amazon is pushing sellers into FBA, giving them control over customs clearance and last-mile delivery—but at the cost of margin and autonomy.
  • Small DTC brands are under pressure to relocate inventory, automate classification, and integrate with U.S. systems—or risk falling behind.

Brands that haven’t invested in EDI, U.S. warehousing, or structured tariff classification are struggling. Even Shopify sellers are finding that cheap imports are no longer enough—you need infrastructure, compliance, and operational control.

Technology as a Tariff Strategy

You can’t forecast politics—but you can build systems that adapt to it.

That’s what supply chain leaders are doing. ERP and trade compliance platforms are no longer just internal reporting tools—they’re real-time decision engines for navigating tariff chaos.

Modern platforms enable:

  • Landed cost automation, including freight, duties, and brokerage fees—SKU by SKU.
  • HTS classification engines that flag misclassifications before customs does.
  • Scenario modeling, letting procurement and finance teams simulate cost impact before confirming POs.

On the operational side, this means fewer surprises. Teams aren’t stuck reacting—they’re already positioned to reroute, delay, or accelerate shipments based on live tariff data.

Operational Adjustments That Actually Work

The only way to stay resilient in this environment is to re-architect operations for speed, flexibility, and compliance. Here’s what that looks like:

1. Source Diversification

The “China Plus One” strategy isn’t theoretical anymore—it’s happening at scale.

  • Vietnam and India are absorbing labor-intensive production.
  • Mexico, via the USMCA agreement, offers a nearshoring advantage and tariff-free access.
  • Chinese firms are moving final assembly to Mexico to legally label goods as “Made in Mexico,” achieving substantial transformation and duty exemption.

This has led to double-digit YoY increases in China-to-Mexico shipments.

2. Tariff Engineering

Small product adjustments—changing materials, altering assembly order, or shifting final packaging—can lead to a new HS code classification with a lower duty rate. This is both legal and increasingly necessary.

3. Warehouse Positioning

Using bonded warehouses or Foreign-Trade Zones (FTZs) allows companies to defer duties until the goods are sold or rerouted. It also reduces last-mile costs by staging inventory closer to the consumer.

4. Reevaluating Incoterms

More importers are shifting to FOB terms, giving them control over customs clearance, carrier selection, and duty classification, rather than letting overseas suppliers dictate logistics and risk exposure.

5. Compliance Automation

Software tools now track tariff updates in real time, flag misclassified SKUs, and auto-generate required documentation like commercial invoices, country-of-origin statements, and Amazon EDI files.

Automating this layer reduces errors, avoids chargebacks, and keeps retailers happy, especially critical when stakes are high and mistakes are costly.

Conclusion

Tariffs aren’t a temporary hurdle: they’re part of the new operating environment for global trade.

Importers who treat them as background noise will keep getting caught off guard. Those who respond with better systems, smarter sourcing, and agile operations will not only protect margins – they’ll gain a long-term edge.

In uncertain times, resilience isn’t optional. It’s the baseline for staying in the game.

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EU Trade Surplus with US Grows Despite Tariffs

The European Union’s trade dynamics with major global partners have shown mixed results, as the bloc’s goods trade surplus with the United States grew in April, while exports to China continued to decline. According to data from Eurostat, the EU’s overall goods trade surplus fell to 7.4 billion euros ($8.5 billion) from 12.7 billion euros compared to April 2024.

Read also: European Markets Amid Earnings Success and Trump Tariff Concerns

Despite U.S. tariffs, the EU’s trade surplus with the United States has consistently increased every month since the beginning of 2024. Both exports to and imports from the U.S. rose for the fourth consecutive month in April, although the pace of growth has slowed. This trend comes amidst the backdrop of U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs aimed at reducing the U.S. goods trade deficit with the EU.

In March, EU exports to the U.S. surged by 59.5%, indicating that U.S. importers might have been stockpiling EU goods ahead of the tariff hikes. The tariffs, which included a 25% duty on steel and aluminum from March and subsequent tariffs on cars and car parts, have had a significant impact on trade flows.

While the EU’s surplus with the United States increased, its trade balances with other countries such as Britain, Switzerland, and Mexico decreased. Additionally, the EU’s trade deficits with China, Norway, and South Korea expanded in April. According to data from the IndexBox platform, EU exports of machinery and vehicles to the rest of the world declined by 4.3%, with similar trends observed in exports of raw materials and energy products. However, the bloc saw an increase in food, drink, and chemical exports compared to April 2024.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform  

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Managing the Trump Tariffs: Lower the Cost in Manufacturing & Distribution: The Benefits of Foreign Trade Zones

The Trump administration’s tariffs have caused a high degree of angst, chaos, disruption and uncertainty in global trade. Executive orders are coming at us at 90 MPH, are somewhat ambiguous and difficult to interpret clearly and precisely. Even the government agencies such as Customs & Border Protection (CBP) struggle to comprehensively understand what Trump is executing and if he is covering all the bases.

Read also: Foreign Trade Zones, Bonded Warehouses and Free Trade Agreements: Lowering Your “Landed Costs”

Any professional involved in trade compliance and global supply chain is finding it extremely difficult to keep up with all the new regulations and understanding how they apply.  And then there is the consistent back-peddling, possibly reversing decisions made.

Companies based in the USA can lower the cost of their manufacturing, distribution, and supply chain model when the Foreign Trade Zone (FTZ) is utilized.

FTZ’s are defined as:

Foreign-trade zones are designated sites licensed by the Foreign-Trade Zones (FTZ) Board (Commerce Secretary is Chairperson) at which special customs procedures may be used. These procedures allow domestic activity involving foreign items to take place prior to formal customs entry. Duty-free treatment is accorded items that are re-exported and duty payment is deferred on items sold in the U.S. market, thus offsetting customs advantages available to overseas producers who compete with producers located in the United States. Subzones/usage-driven sites are approved for a specific company/use. A site which has been granted zone status may not be used for zone activity until the site or a section thereof has been separately approved for FTZ activation by local U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) officials, and the zone activity remains under the supervision of CBP. FTZ sites and facilities remain within the jurisdiction of local, state or federal governments or agencies

Many manufacturers in the United States are interested in the following:

– Reshoring

– Lowering Landed and Operational Costs

– Reducing risk in their supply chain

– Gaining better control over resiliency, sustainability and stability over their global footprint

For those primary reasons there is a growing trend for business models to add foreign-trade zones to their business models. 

Typically, companies believe that FTZ’s are unique to the coastline, ports and oceanside entry gateways.  But that is a misnomer, as there are numerous FTZ’s operating in various inland gateways in Columbus OH, Denver CO, Greer SC, and Albany NY … to name a few inland points of FTZ-activated sites.

CBP, which is involved in enforcement, has to be in a geographic position to support its efforts of site management and compliance with FTZ customs regulations.

Specifically, the FTZ guidelines dictate the following:

Zone sites must be within or adjacent to a U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) port of entry. 

The adjacency requirement can be satisfied if one of the following factors is met:

1. The zone or subzone site is within the limits of a CBP port of entry.

2. The zone or subzone site is within 60 statute miles of the outer limits of a CBP port of entry.

3. The zone or subzone site is within 90 minutes’ driving time from the outer limits of a CBP port of entry as verified by the CBP Service Port Director.

4. For subzones only: subzone sites that are outside the 60 miles/90 minutes driving time from the outer limits of the CBP port of entry may alternatively qualify to be considered adjacent if they work with the CBP Port Director to ensure that proper oversight measures are in place.

Additionally, there is another misnomer that FTZ’s are complicated, expensive, and difficult supply chain initiatives.

Nothing can be further than the truth, as under a proper and organized FTZ implementation process they are viable options and more easily accomplished than one would think possible. 

For example, manufacturers, distributors and 3PL’s located in a land-locked state like Colorado can easily take advantage of Foreign Trade Zones, such as those in the Denver area.

FTZ’s can be operated in your own location or in a third-party facility. Manufacturers are more likely than not to have the FTZ in their own facility, but many companies will utilize a third party FTZ in distribution.

The FTZ Board, part of the Department of Commerce, is the lead agency for FTZ authorization. Compliance and oversight are delegated to local CBP Offices. 

Merchandise in a zone may be assembled, exhibited, cleaned, manipulated, manufactured, mixed, processed, relabeled, repackaged, repaired, salvaged, sampled, stored, tested, displayed and destroyed.

Production activity must be specifically authorized by the FTZ Board. (Production activity is defined as activity involving the substantial transformation of a foreign article or activity involving a change in the condition of the article which results in a change in the customs classification of the article or in its eligibility for entry for consumption.)

Every supply chain executive has as a primary responsibility for the need to reduce risk and spend in the business models they operate.

Most governments around the world open the door to access what we here in the United States call Foreign-Trade Zones, known outside the US as Free Trade Zones.

FTZ’s provide an avenue to both lower risk and spend in the global supply chain and can also assist with business process and operational and administrative advantages for those responsible for international sales, customer service and logistics.

The FTZ sits outside the U.S. economy, though physically located within our geographic limits. Basically, it affords an importer the ability to move goods into a warehousing/manufacturing/distribution facility here in the USA, without creating a customs clearance and defer paying any duties and taxes.

Companies eligible for Foreign Trade Zone are:

  • Manufacturers and Distributors
  • Principal Importers and Exporters
  • Service Providers
  • 3PL’s
  • Warehouseman, Carriers and alike servicing the international trade community 

The benefits of the FTZ are numerous and can be unique to certain supply chains:

  • Duty Exemption. … 
  • Duty Deferral. … 
  • Duty Reduction (Inverted Tariff) … 
  • Reduction of Customs Clearance Costs
  • Merchandise Processing Fee (MPF) Reduction. … 
  • Quota Avoidance. … 
  • Streamlined Logistics. … 
  • Other Cash Flow Benefits. …
  • Potential access to state and local tax and grant considerations

The process to obtain a FTZ has both a commercial and a government interface.

Simply stated, the process is briefly outlined as follows:

The FTZ board part of the Department of Commerce has national oversight. Enforcement is outsourced to CBP (Customs Border & Protection).

Washington provides authorization to the various states who further work with chosen local agencies, such as but not limited to commercial parties, economic development agencies, world trade centers and other like organizations.

These agencies become local “grantees” and have local authority for FTZ Administration. The local CBP Office creates an activation process and manages all aspects of FTZ regulatory compliance. 

If the FTZ includes manufacturing or assembly, The FTZ Board in Washington becomes very much more involved in FTZ authorization process and enforcement. 

The specific terminology once again is as follows: 

Foreign-trade zones are designated sites licensed by the Foreign-Trade Zones (FTZ) Board (Commerce Secretary is Chairperson) at which special customs procedures may be used. These procedures allow domestic activity involving foreign items to take place prior to formal customs entry. Duty-free treatment is accorded items that are re-exported, and duty payment is deferred on items sold in the U.S. market, thus offsetting customs advantages available to overseas producers who compete with producers located in the United States. Subzones/usage-driven sites are approved for a specific company/use. A site which has been granted zone status may not be used for zone activity until the site or a section thereof has been separately approved for FTZ activation by local U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) officials, and the zone activity remains under the supervision of CBP. FTZ sites and facilities remain within the jurisdiction of local, state or federal governments or agencies. 

Manufacturing and assembly as compared to flow-through inventory and distribution create additional challenges and government controls.

We recommend that companies with a global footprint consider FTZ’s as a means to lower landed costs and we further recommend evaluating outsourcing the responsibility to a 3PL who specializes in FTZ services.

Though the process can be daunting, if you utilize professional assistance the process can be more easily managed. As a specialized consulting company, Blue Tiger International (www.bluetigerintl.com) works nationally to assist companies in navigating the challenges of FTZ implementation and management.

We have the ability to assess the financial benefits and operating needs for your entry into the FTZ in addition to the experience and knowledgeable personnel to support you in any FTZ initiative.

We have developed a four-step process that assures companies of FTZ evaluation and implementation success.

This four-step process can take anywhere from 60-120 Days. The process includes:

  • Extensive collection of import, export and if manufacturing, operational data
  • Identifying financial gain and costing structure to create a “ROI”.
  • Evaluate operational needs, modifications and technology to make the FTZ function
  • Assure compliance with FTZ and local regulations are met

The FTZ Activation Process is as follows:

Additional consideration in the FTZ process:

  • Training for management and operational personnel
  • Creation of SOP’s
  • Utilization of technology to track the product through the import, FTZ entry, manufacturing and/or distribution, inventory, WIP, import or export from the FTZ
  • Local Fees to Grantee
  • Approvals, when necessary, from local agencies, when required by state or local law
  • Alignment of all the divisions and departments in your organization: Senior Management, Finance, Legal, Manufacturing, Operations, Demand Planning/Inventory, Sales, Customer Service, Supply Chain and HR.

Companies that utilize FTZ’s will work in three primary areas of control: Compliance, Security and Product Accountability. 

The three key pillars of success in obtaining FTZ status is in these areas:

These three pillars must be demonstrated to the Grantee and CBP in the application for FTZ activation. It is prudent to gain support from professional FTZ management companies that can guide you through the process utilizing their resources, experience, and skill sets.

April 2025 Update:

The Trump Administration has temporarily put Executive Orders in place that require inbound shipments to FTZ’s to be declared “privileged foreign” when entered, from China and potentially other reciprocal tariff impacted countries. The rate of duty would then be applicable to when the goods entered the FTZ and not when they exit.  Duty deferral is still available as a primary benefit. Other benefits include reduced customs clearance charges along with potential tariff inversion opportunities.

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Impact of Trump Tariffs on the Consumer and the Global Supply Chain

Supply chain expert Jay Dhokia, founder of Pro3PL, comments on the U.S. government’s plans to impose port fees on Chinese ships.

Read also: U.S. Tariffs Could Break Up Shipping Alliances and Disrupt Global Trade

“While the new port fees on Chinese ships docking in the United States are less extreme than first suggested by the American government, they are the latest blow disrupting the global supply chain as part of America’s shake-up. Even though the fees being imposed are significantly less extreme than what was first suggested, they are yet another factor disrupting the global supply chain alongside the raft of other tariffs and changes in U.S. trade culture. Since January 2025, Trump has imposed taxes of up to 145% on imports from China. Supply chain operations and consumers will have to take these measures incredibly seriously as they adjust to this new, turbulent global economic environment.

People will feel these changes in their wallets

“For the average American consumer, additional port fees and tariffs will noticeably raise product prices. Shipping vessels will charge more to deliver cargo to the U.S., creating a ripple effect where businesses pass increased shipping costs onto the consumer to avoid absorbing the new cost. There will also likely be significant delays as fewer boats dock at U.S. ports to avoid fees and tariffs, diverting them to other global ports, guaranteeing congestion and processing issues. With fees charged on international cargo ships set to increase year-on-year, and it being a colossal undertaking to replace Chinese vessels that dominate the existing maritime supply chain, this proposed policy change will be felt for a long time yet.

There will be a knock-on effect across Europe and the rest of the world

“Even before the announcement on port fees, we’ve observed a trend of cargo from China redirected to Europe and away from its original U.S. destination due to tariffs. As shippers look to find new markets, cargo will be routed away from the United States and into places such as the United Kingdom, the Netherlands and Germany. Uncertainty and the growing costs of trading with America risk creating a backlog at European ports, which have to accommodate an influx of maritime traffic. This is only the beginning, however, as uncertainty and disruption in the United States may spook businesses. Operations will likely start looking to permanently alter their supply chains as a result.

Everybody loses in a trade war

“Continuing trade conflict between America and China amplifies supply chain challenges on a global scale. Supply chain and logistics operations need to show a sense of resilience and adaptability to disruptions caused by these policies. My advice is for businesses and supply chain managers to keep a watchful eye on developments and discussions, with change coming thick and fast.”

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Trump Tariffs Promise Increased False Claims Act Scrutiny for Companies Throughout the Import Chain

Introduction

In a series of actions since Inauguration Day, President Trump has imposed steep tariffs on key U.S. trading partners across a broad swath of industries. At the same time, the U.S. Department of Justice (“DOJ”) has promised to ramp up use of the False Claims Act (“FCA”)—DOJ’s primary tool against fraud on government agencies—to police tariff compliance. The effect will likely be a redoubling of DOJ’s already aggressive application of the FCA to trade matters, fueled by tariffs’ status as a top policy and political priority.  The risks for businesses are significant and likely will affect a broader range of industries than DOJ has historically targeted with trade-related FCA actions.

Read also: Trump’s Tariffs: What Supply Chain and Procurement Professionals Need to Know

President Trump’s Tariffs and the FCA Stakes

President Trump has imposed unprecedented and far-reaching tariffs on imports from some of the United States’ largest trading partners. Under the new tariff regime, any company importing virtually any item from anywhere now owes at least 10% of the value of that item to the U.S. government—and up to 145%, or more, for goods from China. Particularly for companies that import expensive products and materials in large volumes, this can mean massive sums in financial obligations to the U.S. government.

The FCA prohibits, among other things, the fraudulent retention of monies that a person or company is obligated to pay to the United States. Courts have acknowledged the viability of this FCA theory in the customs context, premised on allegations that a company was required to pay customs duties and knowingly or recklessly failed to satisfy that obligation.

The financial consequences of FCA liability can be severe.  The statute imposes treble damages, measured as three times the amount of loss the government sustains because of a violation.  In the trade context, the most likely measure of damages is the difference between the amount a company paid in customs duties and the amount the government claims it should have paid, times three.  An additional civil penalty attaches to each violation of the statute, which in the trade context would likely be at least every invoice the government alleges a company used to fraudulently underpay duties. The trigger for the penalty could potentially be each item that is subject to duties. The current range for FCA penalties is $14,308 to $28,619 per claim, and that amount is adjusted each year to account for inflation. Beyond damages and penalties, companies can face significant defense costs in pre-litigation investigations by DOJ.

FCA Enforcement Against Alleged Customs Fraud

DOJ has used the FCA against alleged customs fraud across industries and with significant financial consequences. Since 2011, there have been over 40 resolutions of FCA matters involving alleged customs violations, with nearly half occurring since 2023. The resolutions since 2011 have netted the government nearly $250 million in recoveries, with larger settlements reaching into the tens of millions of dollars. Of the resolutions since 2011, 35 involved qui tam relators—private whistleblowers whom the FCA authorizes to sue in DOJ’s name and in return for a share of any proceeds from the litigation.  

The following representative examples provide a window into the kinds of cases DOJ is likely to pursue in higher volumes, and with greater potential financial consequences, in the future.

  • Misclassification. In March 2024, DOJ reached a $3.1 million settlement with a U.S. chemical products company which allegedly imported hazardous chemicals into the United States and misclassified them as non-hazardous goods.
  • Undervaluation. In August 2024, DOJ settled for over $10 million with wiring and power products companies and almost $7.7 million with a clothing manufacturer, each of whom allegedly altered the prices on the invoices they submitted to the government.  
  • Country of origin. In December 2012, a printing inks manufacturer reached a $45 million settlement with DOJ for allegedly misrepresenting its imports’ countries of origin as Japan and Mexico, rather than China and India, to avoid paying antidumping and countervailing duties.
  • Conspiracy. In 2016, a U.S. defense contractor paid $6 million for allegedly using ultrafine magnesium imported from China in flares it manufactured and sold to the U.S. Army in violation of its contract with the military.  While it was the importer who owed customs duties and allegedly misrepresented the magnesium’s country of origin, DOJ alleged that the downstream contractor conspired with the importer to sell the government the nonconforming goods.

Industry Implications

President Trump’s tariffs mean that the frequency and financial stakes of customs-related FCA cases are likely to increase rapidly. Given the opportunities DOJ and relators already have had to test customs-related FCA theories, they are likely to experience little of the learning curve that often characterizes the development of brand-new FCA theories. Moreover, both DOJ and relators likely will be emboldened by the potential for significantly higher recoveries and by the perceived enforcement flexibility afforded by the new tariffs’ broad application. We expect DOJ and relators will seek the same nine- and ten-figure monetary recoveries in customs-related cases that they have long sought—and frequently obtained—in FCA cases outside the trade context.

Companies in the following industries can expect to face particularly close FCA scrutiny:

  • Automobile and automobile parts;
  • Medical devices;
  • Pharmaceuticals and dietary supplements;
  • Furniture, textiles, and other retail products;
  • Steel, aluminum, and other metals or metal alloys; and
  • Technology hardware.

To mitigate risk, companies should ensure that they have robust mechanisms in place to detect, report, and remedy instances of noncompliance with customs requirements, including comprehensive employee training. Companies should also review their compensation practices to ensure that any incentive compensation tied to cost reduction and process optimization is not incentivizing inappropriate attempts to reduce customs duty obligations.  It will also be critical for companies to review the terms of their contractual relationships with upstream and downstream business partners, to ensure that the risk of government scrutiny is appropriately allocated and, where appropriate, to require contractual counterparties to comply with company policies and procedures.

Author Bio

Jake M. Shields is a partner with Gibson Dunn’s False Claims Act practice group in Washington, D.C. Previously he served as Senior Trial Counsel at the Fraud Section of the Civil Division of the U.S. Department of Justice, where he investigated and litigated False Claims Act cases including in the areas of customs and tariffs enforcement. Michael R. Dziuban and Andrew Becker are associates in Gibson Dunn’s Washington D.C. office where they work on False Claims Act investigations.