IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘World – Unmanufactured Tobacco – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

Brazil, the world’s largest supplier of tobacco, is plagued by falling demand. Exports from this country have been steadily declining for six consecutive years, from $ 3.2 billion in 2012 to $ 1.9 billion in 2018.

From 2007-2018, the global market rose at an average annual rate of +2.0% to reach $24.6B. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers’ margins, which will be included in the final consumer price).

Consumption by Country

China (2.2M tonnes) remains the largest unmanufactured tobacco consuming country worldwide, accounting for 35% of total volume. Moreover, unmanufactured tobacco consumption in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, India (565K tonnes), fourfold. Brazil (321K tonnes) ranked third in terms of total consumption with a 5.1% share.

From 2007 to 2018, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume in China was relatively modest. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: India (+4.3% per year) and Brazil (+2.8% per year).

Exports 2007-2018

In 2018, approx. 2.5M tonnes of tobacco (unmanufactured) were exported worldwide; reducing by -1.7% against the previous year. Overall, unmanufactured tobacco exports continue to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2012 when exports increased by 6.6% against the previous year. The global exports peaked at 2.8M tonnes in 2009; however, from 2010 to 2018, exports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, unmanufactured tobacco exports stood at $11.4B (IndexBox estimates) in 2018.

Exports by Country

In 2018, Brazil (449K tonnes), distantly followed by Belgium (228K tonnes), China (203K tonnes), India (186K tonnes), Malawi (173K tonnes), Zimbabwe (172K tonnes) and the U.S. (153K tonnes) were the main exporters of tobacco (unmanufactured), together achieving 63% of total exports. Italy (75K tonnes), Mozambique (70K tonnes), Turkey (68K tonnes), Argentina (64K tonnes) and Germany (59K tonnes) occupied a minor share of total exports.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of exports, amongst the main exporting countries, was attained by Belgium, while exports for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Brazil ($1.9B), Belgium ($1.2B) and the U.S. ($1B) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2018, together comprising 36% of global exports.

Belgium experienced the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, in terms of the main exporting countries over the period under review, while exports for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices by Country

The average unmanufactured tobacco export price stood at $4,582 per tonne in 2018, therefore, remained relatively stable against the previous year. Over the last eleven years, it increased at an average annual rate of +2.8%. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2008 when the average export price increased by 15% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the average export prices for tobacco (unmanufactured) reached their peak figure at $4,874 per tonne in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2018, export prices remained at a lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably by the country of origin; the country with the highest price was Germany ($7,076 per tonne), while India ($3,249 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Italy, while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform