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Will the EU Supply Chain Issues Encourage Growth in the UK Economy?

EU

Will the EU Supply Chain Issues Encourage Growth in the UK Economy?

Brexit and the pandemic have been disruptive for supply chains. Between new regulations, tariffs, and isolation and testing policies, importing and exporting products has been difficult. However, where disruption occurs, so too does the opportunity to seize new shares of growing and changing markets.

By discussing how Brexit has affected trade between the EU and the UK, we can explore how the UK economy may experience local economic growth and how businesses should reinforce their operations to succeed in this new era of regulated trade.

Why is Europe so important for British supply chains?

Trading with the EU has played a significant role in British business as the number one partner for trading goods, accounting for 52 percent of imports and 43 percent of exports in 2019.

In 2019, £374 billion worth of goods were imported to the UK from the EU, while £294 billion worth of goods were exported.

These trading ties are significant for sectors including food and drink, chemical, and automotive industries, supplying commodities and equipment for supply chains in the UK.

Measuring trade

However, the Brexit trade agreement has been disruptive, with imports and exports experiencing a sharp slump after the UK officially left the EU. While it has recovered, there are still some teething issues as the UK attempts to restore European trade to its pre-Brexit high. More checks, paperwork, and higher costs are just some of the problems that businesses are facing.

In May 2021, the value of imports from the EU matched levels of January 2016, lower than its peak in 2019. However, the value of exports remains relatively high, exceeding most figures as far back as 2007. The trade deficit is also at its lowest difference since 2012. The impact of Brexit has been sharp, but data shows that while the recovery is turbulent, it is a recovery nonetheless.

Opportunities for UK businesses

The UK is in a trade deficit with the EU, meaning that more goods are imported into the UK than are exported. This is not inherently bad or good. In fact, in some situations, a trade deficit can allow economies to specialize in specific sectors and achieve significant growth.

However, as imports from the EU remain below their 2019 peak, it could present an opportunity for short-term economic growth in the UK. Businesses may have to temporarily rely on domestic supply chains to sustain their current models while wider international trade deals are crafted. As businesses look to their own backyards, could it boost local communities through employment and other investment?

UK businesses that supply transport equipment, chemicals, and non-electrical machinery could find domestic investment from investors struggling to attain imports from our European neighbors, where these commodity groups equate to 17, 15, and 14 percent of import from the EU respectively.

One UK business, FPE Seals, is a manufacturer and distributor of pneumatic seals and hydraulic cylinder parts. Steve Eillis, Managing Director at FPE Seals says that while Brexit has been disruptive, a clear supply channel strategy along with the specialist focus of their products has allowed them to remain competitive across the UK and European markets. NAME said: “It’s key for businesses to focus on their strengths and what makes their products or services unique. Despite the disruption of Brexit, we’ve been able to embrace a growing UK market while maintaining relationships abroad that limit the impact on our supply chains. Ultimately, by recognizing the strengths of our partners and clients, we’ve been able to tailor our processes to a market and supply chain that is constantly changing.”

Preparedness is key. While European opportunities may be reduced, businesses should seek out local opportunities.

Finding strengths to grow your business and the economy

The environment of uncertainty is unsustainable, as the UK and the EU move beyond the pandemic, businesses will be back to analyzing their Brexit strategy. For UK businesses to grow and to benefit the economy, there are several factors that should be considered and operations that can be more efficiently organized. Businesses that are progressing beyond Brexit and the pandemic must:

Create a new sourcing strategy

Investing in local supply chains or encouraging the establishment of international suppliers on your doorstep can help alleviate the uncertainty of European trade. Existing contracts should also be modified to account for risk in both the near and distant future.

Consider demand changes

As trade changes, so will the demand for your products. Those exporting to the EU may recognize that they cannot compete with internal-bloc businesses, but those with popular imported products may find more domestic success. Flexibility is also vital, where volatility may be a common feature of UK and European markets than previously known.

Reinforce their capabilities

Brexit means that UK businesses will have to stress their capabilities and advantages to new competition within the UK, and to their existing EU customers that may be discouraged by new tariffs, regulations, and checks. Whilst in the trade deficit, businesses should concentrate their efforts to reinforce their specialist skills and products that can also be procured through their business and trade. Only then can supply chains encourage economic growth.

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Sources

https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-7851/

https://www.statista.com/statistics/284750/united-kingdom-uk-total-eu-trade-in-goods-by-trade-value/

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=United_Kingdom-EU_-_international_trade_in_goods_statistics#EU_and_the_United_Kingdom_in_world_trade_in_goods

anchovies

The UK Emerges as the Largest Market for Anchovies Exports from Spain

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘Spain – Anchovies (Prepared Or Preserved) – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends And Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

The revenue of the preserved anchovies market in Spain amounted to $128M in 2018, falling by -3.8% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers’ margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Overall, anchovies consumption, however, continues to indicate a slight decline. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2010 when the market value increased by 7.3% y-o-y. In that year, the anchovies market attained its peak level of $154M. From 2011 to 2018, the growth of the anchovies market failed to regain its momentum.

Production in Spain

In 2018, the anchovies production in Spain totaled 11K tonnes, remaining stable against the previous year. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.5% over the period from 2007 to 2018; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded over the period under review. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2014 with an increase of 14% y-o-y. Anchovies production peaked in 2018 and is likely to continue its growth in the near future.

Exports from Spain

In 2018, the exports of prepared or preserved anchovies from Spain totaled 3.6K tonnes. In general, the total exports indicated prominent growth from 2007 to 2018: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +5.7% over the last eleven-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Over the period under review, anchovies exports reached their peak figure at 3.7K tonnes in 2015; however, from 2016 to 2018, exports failed to regain their momentum.

In value terms, anchovies exports totaled $54M (IndexBox estimates) in 2018. Overall, the total exports indicated buoyant growth from 2007 to 2018: its value increased at an average annual rate of +5.7% over the last eleven years.

Exports by Country

The UK (597 tonnes), Italy (471 tonnes) and France (404 tonnes) constitute the main destinations of anchovies exports from Spain, with a combined 40% share of total exports. These countries were followed by the U.S., Switzerland, Australia, the Netherlands, Canada, Germany, Egypt, Belgium and the Czech Republic, which together accounted for a further 45%.

In 2018, exports to the UK posted solid growth and practically regained their former peak achieved in 2015. This enabled the UK to overcome Italy in the ranking of top foreign markets for anchovies from Spain.

Export Prices by Country

The average anchovies export price stood at $14,843 per tonne in 2018, lowering by -3.7% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the anchovies export price continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2013 an increase of 17% against the previous year. The export price peaked at $16,142 per tonne in 2008; however, from 2009 to 2018, export prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably by the country of destination; the country with the highest price was Switzerland ($18,866 per tonne), while the average price for exports to Canada ($4,136 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was recorded for supplies to Belgium, while the prices for the other major destinations experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports into Spain

In 2018, the amount of anchovies (prepared or preserved) imported into Spain stood at 2.1K tonnes, growing by 16% against the previous year. Over the period under review, anchovies imports continue to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2010 when imports increased by 50% against the previous year. Imports peaked at 3.4K tonnes in 2015; however, from 2016 to 2018, imports failed to regain their momentum.

In value terms, anchovies imports amounted to $13M (IndexBox estimates) in 2018. In general, the total imports indicated measured growth from 2007 to 2018: its value increased at an average annual rate of +0.8% over the last eleven-year period.

Imports by Country

In 2018, Peru (989 tonnes) constituted the largest anchovies supplier to Spain, with a 47% share of total imports. Moreover, anchovies imports from Peru exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest supplier, Morocco (493 tonnes), twofold. The third position in this ranking was occupied by Argentina (225 tonnes), with a 11% share.

From 2007 to 2018, the average annual growth rate of volume from Peru totaled +10.6%. The remaining supplying countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: Morocco (+1.7% per year) and Argentina (-4.1% per year).

Source: IndexBox AI Platform

leather

Italy’s Exports of Composition Leather Declined for the Fourth Consecutive Year

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘Italy – Composition Leather – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends And Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

The revenue of the composition leather market in Italy amounted to $17M in 2018, reducing by -2.8% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers’ margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Overall, composition leather consumption continues to indicate a deep drop.

Production in Italy

In 2018, approx. 9.8K tonnes of composition leather were produced in Italy; reducing by -5.9% against the previous year. In general, composition leather production continues to indicate an abrupt setback. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2011 when production volume increased by 3.4% year-to-year. Over the period under review, composition leather production attained its peak figure volume at 16K tonnes in 2007; however, from 2008 to 2018, production remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, composition leather production totaled $11M in 2018 estimated in export prices. Overall, composition leather production continues to indicate a deep reduction. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2011 with an increase of 99% against the previous year. In that year, composition leather production reached its peak level of $96M. From 2012 to 2018, composition leather production growth remained at a somewhat lower figure.

Exports from Italy

In 2018, the exports of composition leather from Italy totaled 6.9K tonnes, falling by -7.2% against the previous year. Over the period under review, composition leather exports continue to indicate a measured decline. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2010 with an increase of 43% y-o-y. Exports peaked at 10K tonnes in 2011; however, from 2012 to 2018, exports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, composition leather exports totaled $21M (IndexBox estimates) in 2018. In general, composition leather exports continue to indicate a perceptible descent. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2011 when exports increased by 31% year-to-year. In that year, composition leather exports reached their peak of $34M. From 2012 to 2018, the growth of composition leather exports remained at a somewhat lower figure.

Exports by Country

China, Hong Kong SAR (1.6K tonnes) was the main destination for composition leather exports from Italy, accounting for a 23% share of total exports. Moreover, composition leather exports to China, Hong Kong SAR exceeded the volume sent to the second major destination, China (673 tonnes), twofold. Portugal (500 tonnes) ranked third in terms of total exports with a 7.2% share.

From 2007 to 2018, the average annual growth rate of volume to China, Hong Kong SAR amounted to -2.4%. Exports to the other major destinations recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: China (+4.2% per year) and Portugal (+1.9% per year).

In value terms, Cambodia ($3.6M), China ($2.4M) and China, Hong Kong SAR ($2.4M) appeared to be the largest markets for composition leather exported from Italy worldwide, together comprising 41% of total exports.

Cambodia experienced the highest rates of growth with regard to exports, among the main countries of destination over the last eleven-year period, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices by Country

The average composition leather export price stood at $2,972 per tonne in 2018, rising by 3.8% against the previous year. Overall, the composition leather export price, however, continues to indicate a slight decline. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2008 when the average export price increased by 11% against the previous year. In that year, the average export prices for composition leather attained their peak level of $3,767 per tonne. From 2009 to 2018, the growth in terms of the average export prices for composition leather failed to regain its momentum.

Prices varied noticeably by the country of destination; the country with the highest price was Cambodia ($12,765 per tonne), while the average price for exports to Poland ($885 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was recorded for supplies to Cambodia, while the prices for the other major destinations experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports into Italy

Composition leather imports into Italy stood at 3.4K tonnes in 2018, stabilizing at the previous year. Overall, composition leather imports continue to indicate a perceptible downturn. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2010 with an increase of 54% against the previous year. Over the period under review, composition leather imports attained their maximum at 5.1K tonnes in 2007; however, from 2008 to 2018, imports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, composition leather imports amounted to $12M (IndexBox estimates) in 2018. Over the period under review, composition leather imports continue to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2010 when imports increased by 46% y-o-y. Over the period under review, composition leather imports attained their maximum at $12M in 2011; however, from 2012 to 2018, imports remained at a lower figure.

Imports by Country

In 2018, Germany (2.3K tonnes) constituted the largest supplier of composition leather to Italy, accounting for a 67% share of total imports. Moreover, composition leather imports from Germany exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest supplier, Slovenia (499 tonnes), fivefold. China (261 tonnes) ranked third in terms of total imports with a 7.6% share.

From 2007 to 2018, the average annual growth rate of volume from Germany stood at -3.7%. The remaining supplying countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: Slovenia (-8.0% per year) and China (+42.8% per year).

In value terms, Germany ($7.6M) constituted the largest supplier of composition leather to Italy, comprising 63% of total composition leather imports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by the UK ($1M), with a 8.3% share of total imports. It was followed by Slovenia, with a 8.1% share.

From 2007 to 2018, the average annual growth rate of value from Germany stood at -1.2%. The remaining supplying countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: the UK (+10.9% per year) and Slovenia (-4.3% per year).

Import Prices by Country

In 2018, the average composition leather import price amounted to $3,545 per tonne, increasing by 11% against the previous year. Over the last eleven-year period, it increased at an average annual rate of +3.7%. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2011 when the average import price increased by 17% y-o-y. Over the period under review, the average import prices for composition leather attained their maximum in 2018 and is likely to see steady growth in the near future.

Prices varied noticeably by the country of origin; the country with the highest price was the UK ($8,990 per tonne), while the price for Slovenia ($1,985 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Hungary, while the prices for the other major suppliers experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform

grape

Global Dried Grapes Market 2019 – the UK is the Leading Import Market

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘World – Dried Grapes – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends And Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

The global dried grapes market revenue amounted to $6B in 2018, going down by -3.5% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers’ margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +3.3% from 2007 to 2018; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2010 when the market value increased by 15% y-o-y. The global dried grapes consumption peaked at $6.7B in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2018, consumption stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Consumption By Country

China (512K tonnes) constituted the country with the largest volume of dried grapes consumption, comprising approx. 18% of total consumption. Moreover, dried grapes consumption in China exceeded the figures recorded by the world’s second-largest consumer, India (208K tonnes), twofold. The U.S. (160K tonnes) ranked third in terms of total consumption with a 5.6% share.

From 2007 to 2018, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume in China stood at +6.6%. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of consumption growth: India (+8.1% per year) and the U.S. (-5.4% per year).

In value terms, China ($896M), the U.S. ($454M) and India ($444M) were the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2018, with a combined 30% share of the global market.

The countries with the highest levels of dried grapes per capita consumption in 2018 were the UK (1,470 kg per 1000 persons), Germany (831 kg per 1000 persons) and Japan (825 kg per 1000 persons).

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of dried grapes per capita consumption, amongst the main consuming countries, was attained by India, while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Market Forecast 2019-2025

Driven by increasing demand for dried grapes worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next seven-year period. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +0.1% for the seven-year period from 2018 to 2025, which is projected to bring the market volume to 3M tonnes by the end of 2025.

Production 2007-2018

In 2018, approx. 2.9M tonnes of dried grapes were produced worldwide; lowering by -5.8% against the previous year. Over the period under review, dried grapes production, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2013 when production volume increased by 8.7% y-o-y. The global dried grapes production peaked at 3.2M tonnes in 2016; however, from 2017 to 2018, production remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, dried grapes production stood at $7.1B in 2018 estimated in export prices. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +3.5% over the period from 2007 to 2018; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded over the period under review. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 when production volume increased by 12% against the previous year. The global dried grapes production peaked at $7.3B in 2016; however, from 2017 to 2018, production stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of dried grapes production in 2018 were China (516K tonnes), Turkey (285K tonnes) and India (230K tonnes), with a combined 36% share of global production.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of dried grapes production, amongst the main producing countries, was attained by India, while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports 2007-2018

In 2018, the amount of dried grapes exported worldwide amounted to 773K tonnes, falling by -4.7% against the previous year. Over the period under review, dried grapes exports continue to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2010 when exports increased by 3.5% y-o-y. Over the period under review, global dried grapes exports attained their maximum at 848K tonnes in 2007; however, from 2008 to 2018, exports failed to regain their momentum.

In value terms, dried grapes exports amounted to $1.7B (IndexBox estimates) in 2018. The total export value increased at an average annual rate of +3.6% from 2007 to 2018; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded over the period under review. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2010 with an increase of 30% year-to-year. Over the period under review, global dried grapes exports reached their peak figure at $2B in 2011; however, from 2012 to 2018, exports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Exports by Country

Turkey represented the key exporter of dried grapes in the world, with the volume of exports reaching 279K tonnes, which was near 36% of total exports in 2018. The U.S. (85K tonnes) occupied the second position in the ranking, followed by Chile (63K tonnes), South Africa (61K tonnes), Uzbekistan (43K tonnes), Iran (42K tonnes) and Argentina (41K tonnes). All these countries together took approx. 43% share of total exports. Afghanistan (26K tonnes), India (23K tonnes), Greece (17K tonnes), China (17K tonnes) and the Netherlands (13K tonnes) followed a long way behind the leaders.

Exports from Turkey increased at an average annual rate of +1.4% from 2007 to 2018. At the same time, Afghanistan (+4.7%), South Africa (+3.7%), India (+3.6%), Argentina (+3.3%) and Uzbekistan (+3.1%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Afghanistan emerged as the fastest-growing exporter in the world, with a CAGR of +4.7% from 2007-2018. The Netherlands and Chile experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, Greece (-2.8%), the U.S. (-3.2%), China (-3.6%) and Iran (-11.4%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. From 2007 to 2018, the share of Turkey, South Africa, Argentina and Uzbekistan increased by +5%, +2.6%, +1.6% and +1.6% percentage points, while the U.S. (-4.7 p.p.) and Iran (-15.2 p.p.) saw their share reduced. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Turkey ($490M), the U.S. ($284M) and Chile ($156M) were the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2018, with a combined 56% share of global exports. These countries were followed by South Africa, Afghanistan, Argentina, Iran, Uzbekistan, Greece, India, the Netherlands and China, which together accounted for a further 36%.

Afghanistan recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to exports, among the main exporting countries over the last eleven years, while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices by Country

In 2018, the average dried grapes export price amounted to $2,145 per tonne, increasing by 17% against the previous year. In general, the export price indicated a resilient increase from 2007 to 2018: its price increased at an average annual rate of +4.5% over the last eleven-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2008 an increase of 26% year-to-year. Over the period under review, the average export prices for dried grapes attained their maximum at $2,351 per tonne in 2011; however, from 2012 to 2018, export prices failed to regain their momentum.

Prices varied noticeably by the country of origin; the country with the highest price was Afghanistan ($3,794 per tonne), while Uzbekistan ($1,236 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Afghanistan, while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports 2007-2018

Global imports stood at 744K tonnes in 2018, declining by -5.9% against the previous year. Overall, dried grapes imports, however, continue to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2010 with an increase of 8.2% against the previous year. The global imports peaked at 851K tonnes in 2016; however, from 2017 to 2018, imports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, dried grapes imports stood at $1.6B (IndexBox estimates) in 2018. The total import value increased at an average annual rate of +3.2% over the period from 2007 to 2018; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2010 with an increase of 27% y-o-y. The global imports peaked at $1.8B in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2018, imports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Imports by Country

The UK (99K tonnes), Germany (77K tonnes) and the Netherlands (55K tonnes) represented roughly 31% of total imports of dried grapes in 2018. It was distantly followed by Japan (35K tonnes), mixing up a 4.8% share of total imports. Kazakhstan (29K tonnes), France (26K tonnes), Brazil (26K tonnes), Russia (24K tonnes), Canada (24K tonnes), Belgium (22K tonnes), Italy (21K tonnes) and Australia (18K tonnes) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of imports, amongst the main importing countries, was attained by Kazakhstan, while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest dried grapes importing markets worldwide were the UK ($199M), Germany ($163M) and Japan ($116M), together accounting for 31% of global imports. The Netherlands, Canada, France, Brazil, Italy, Russia, Australia, Belgium and Kazakhstan lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 29%.

In terms of the main importing countries, Kazakhstan recorded the highest growth rate of imports, over the last eleven-year period, while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices by Country

The average dried grapes import price stood at $2,094 per tonne in 2018, growing by 15% against the previous year. Over the last eleven-year period, it increased at an average annual rate of +3.1%. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2008 when the average import price increased by 23% y-o-y. The global import price peaked at $2,390 per tonne in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2018, import prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably by the country of destination; the country with the highest price was Japan ($3,274 per tonne), while Kazakhstan ($592 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Japan, while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform