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Week Eight in Trade – First 100 Days of the New Administration

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Week Eight in Trade – First 100 Days of the New Administration

This article covers trade developments occurring during the eighth week of the new Trump Administration. It covers events occurring through 12 pm Eastern time on Friday, March 14.

Read also: Week Seven in Trade – First 100 Days of the New Administration

Ongoing Tariff Developments

On March 4, 2025, and March 7, 2025, U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) implemented five Presidential Executive Orders governing imports from China, Hong Kong, Canada, and Mexico. CBP is now collecting the following additional tariffs on imports from Mexico, Canada, and China under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act: 

  • Additional 25% tariffs on goods that do not satisfy U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) rules of origin.
  • A lower, additional 10% tariff on energy products imported from Canada that fall outside the USMCA preference.
  • A lower, additional 10% tariff on potash imported from Canada and Mexico that falls outside the USMCA preference.
  • Additional 20% on goods from China and Hong Kong (increased from 10% on March 4).

Effective March 7, 2025, no additional tariffs are due on goods from Canada and Mexico that qualify for the USMCA preference.

In addition, CBP provided specific guidance on imports of aluminum and aluminum derivative Products as well as import duties on imports of steel and steel derivative products. Guidance regarding steel imports follows President Trump’s February 10, 2025, proclamation imposing 25 percent ad valorem tariffs on all imports of steel articles and derivative steel articles from all countries, effective March 12, 2025. Guidance regarding aluminum imports follows President Trump’s February 10, 2025, proclamation imposing a 25 percent import duty on all imports of aluminum articles and derivative aluminum articles from all countries, also effective March 12, 2025.

Tariff Impacts on Cross-Border Logistics

In response to the tariffs announced (and then delayed) by the United States, cross-border trucking operations reported broad impacts to freight movement between the U.S., Canada, and Mexico. Carriers noted that border crossings across Canada and into Mexico experienced delays, at least some of which are due to higher volumes in anticipation of the impending tariffs. Specifically, CH Robinson reported notable increases in customer requests for USMCA qualification for products that may no longer be duty free under the new 25% IEEPA tariffs, considering the White House announcement that USMCA-complaint goods will benefit from a tariff pause. Additionally, some shippers are adopting innovative customs strategies, separating shipments to limit duties owed on tariff-affected materials, adding complexity to cross-border logistics.

President Trump Targets Chinese Containerships

On March 11, 2025, the U.S. government began investigating China’s dominance in the shipbuilding industry. The House Armed Services Subcommittee on Seapower and Projection Forces is holding a hearing on U.S. shipbuilding, with a public hearing by the Office of the United States Trade Representative scheduled for March 24.

In addition to the service fee imposed on port calls by Chinese-made vessels, the USTR report from January recommended that ocean carriers with 50% or more of their orders placed in Chinese shipyards, or those expecting deliveries within the next 24 months, be charged up to $1 million per vessel each time they enter a U.S. port. These fees could be refunded annually, up to $1 million per entry, for vessels that are built in the United States.

The proposals aimed at limiting China’s dominance in shipbuilding include imposing restrictions on U.S. exports. Initially, 1% of all U.S. products exported by vessel must be transported on U.S.-flagged vessels operated by U.S. operators. Over the course of seven years, these restrictions will incrementally increase to require that at least 15% of all U.S. goods be exported on U.S.-flagged vessels operated by U.S. entities, with 5% of these vessels also needing to be U.S.-built.

On Again, Off Again: Tariff Escalations Between Canada and the United States

After a 24-hour back and forth, President Donald Trump announced late on Tuesday evening, March 11, 2025, that the U.S. would not impose an escalated 50% tariff on Canadian steel and aluminum Tuesday.  This announcement was made after the Government of Ontario also backed down and called off its efforts to impose a surcharge on electricity exports to the United States.

Early Monday, March 10, 2025, Ontario announced a potential 25 percent increase in electricity prices for three northern U.S. states, Minnesota, New York and Michigan, only to suspend the threatened surcharge after conversations with the U.S. Commerce Secretary following President Trump’s threats to escalate steel and aluminum tariffs on Canada by 50%.

Specifically, on Monday Ontario threatened to terminate power supply unless President Trump withdrew his tariff threats. The new surcharge of C$10 per megawatt-hour (approximately $7 USD) would result in an additional $100 monthly charge on household bills and could cost each state $400,000 daily. 

In response, President Trump announced today that his administration would raise steel and aluminum tariffs by an additional 25% on Canada due to the threatened electricity surcharge implemented by the Ontario government, marking the latest development in the escalating trade conflict. The total tariff on steel and aluminum imports from Canada is now expected to be 50%.

Following President Trump’s announcement, the Ontario Premier initially reiterated the possibility of completely cutting off electricity to the U.S. and warned he also was prepared to make the export tax even higher.  Later, the Ontario Premier announced that he agreed to suspend the 25% surcharge on electricity imports into the U.S.  A meeting is reportedly scheduled for Thursday, March 13, 2025, to discuss a renewal of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada free trade agreement. 

Commerce Issues Required Certification; Section 232 Tariffs Now in Effect for All New Derivative Products

As previously reported, on February 10, 2025, President Trump issued Proclamations 10895 and 10896, making significant changes to the existing measures imposed on imports of aluminum and steel on national security grounds pursuant to Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962.  Among other changes, the Proclamations added to the list of so-called “derivative” downstream products incorporating aluminum and steel that would be subject to Section 232 duties of 25 percent for all countries except Russia, which would be subject to duties of 200 percent. 

The new derivative products covered by the February 10 Proclamations are listed in the Annexes to Proclamation 10895 (for aluminum) and 10896 (for steel).  The February 10 Proclamations stated that merchandise listed in the Annexes classified under Chapter 73 (for steel) and Chapter 76 (for aluminum) would be subject to duties beginning on March 12, 2025.  The Proclamations further stated that derivatives classified outside of Chapters 73 and 76 would be subject to the additional duties on the date that the Secretary of Commerce certified that adequate systems are in place to fully, efficiently, and expediently process and collect tariff revenue for covered articles.

On March 11, 2025, U.S. Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick submitted the required certification for publication in the Federal Register.  Later in the evening of March 11, CBP issued updated Cargo Systems Messaging Service guidance previously issued on March 7 for both steel and aluminum to confirm that all derivatives, including those classified outside of chapter 76, would go into effect for entries made on or after 12:01 AM on March 12, 2025. At this time, CBP has not provided any guidance on the specific method to be used to declare a value for the aluminum or steel content for affected derivative products. 

New Retaliatory Canadian Tariffs

Following President Trump’s imposition of a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum products from various countries, including Canada, on March 12, the Canadian government announced its countermeasures. Effective today, March 13, these measures impose additional surtaxes targeting CAD $29.8 billion worth of goods originating from the United States.

The tariffs are designed to be reciprocal, targeting CAD $29.8 billion worth of imports from the United States. This amount is approximately equal to the value of steel and aluminum products affected by U.S. tariffs, with the surtaxes distributed among various categories as follows: steel (CAD $12.6 billion), aluminum (CAD $3 billion), and additional U.S. Goods (CAD $14.2 billion). The surtaxes are part of a larger plan for CAD $125 billion in retaliatory tariffs that Canada is reportedly preparing to implement.

EU Announces Countermeasures in Response to US Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum

The European Commission announced countermeasures to address the impact on EU businesses and consumers in response to the US reinstating 25% tariffs on steel imports and increase of the existing 10% tariff on aluminum imports to 25%, while extending these tariffs to additional steel and aluminum products on March 12, 2025. These countermeasures will be implemented in two stages, starting with renewing the countermeasures imposed in 2018 and 2020 (previously suspended). These measures, which include tariffs ranging from 4.4% to 50% on certain US products, will come into force on April 1, 2025. To determine whether their supply chains will be affected, companies should review the list of US products subject to the 2018 countermeasures in Regulation (EU) 2018/886, and the list of US products subject to the 2020 countermeasures in Regulation (EU) 2020/502.

For the second stage, the European Commission will propose a new package of countermeasures on US products, which the commission reportedly will implement on or about April 13, 2025. Companies should review the list of US products potentially subject to these new countermeasures (available here) and participate in the Commission’s consultation process, which is open until March 26, 2025 (information on that process is available here). This process allows potentially affected parties to provide input, which will be considered before the new package is adopted.

In parallel, the European Commission remains open to a negotiated solution with the US. European Commissioner for Trade, Maroš Šefčovič, emphasized the Commission’s willingness to engage constructively to reach an agreement that could lead to the suspension of the US tariffs and the EU countermeasures. However, companies should prepare for the upcoming changes by verifying the classification and origin of their products according to EU regulations and participate in the consultation process described above.

global trade market

U.S. Markets Under Pressure Amid Tariff Concerns

Concerns over tariffs continued to pressure U.S. markets, leading to a midday decline in key equity indices. The Nasdaq dropped by over 1%, while both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 also experienced losses. Adobe (ADBE) led the decliners in the S&P 500, following its guidance announcement which cast doubts over its strategy to capitalize on artificial intelligence technologies.

Read also: Global Trade Forecast to Expand Amid U.S. Tariff Policies

Shares of UiPath (PATH) plummeted to a historical low after the software automation company issued a forecast that highlighted potential setbacks from reduced federal spending and overarching global economic challenges. Similarly struggling were the shares of Sunnova Energy International (NOVA), tumbling amidst speculation that it may seek bankruptcy to manage its debt burden.

Conversely, Intel (INTC) saw its shares rise after announcing Lip-Bu Tan, formerly of Cadence Design Systems (CDNS), as its new CEO. In the commodities sector, Newmont (NEM) and other gold mining firms saw stock prices increase, aligned with gold reaching record high prices as investors flocked to the precious metal amid market uncertainties.

Dollar General (DG) experienced a share price boost after surpassing revenue projections, driven by increased sales in food and essential goods. Meanwhile, oil futures recorded a dip, and the 10-year Treasury yield remained stable. The U.S. dollar appreciated against the euro and pound but weakened versus the yen, while major cryptocurrencies displayed varied trading behavior, noting a 2% dip in bitcoin.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform  

global trade ships

Global Trade Forecast to Expand Amid U.S. Tariff Policies

The landscape of global trade is anticipated to evolve with moderate growth as the international community responds to tariff strategies enacted by the U.S. government. According to a report by Reuters, DHL Group CEO Tobias Meyer emphasized that the bulk of global trade, which remains unaffected by U.S. policies, shows positive momentum.

Read also: How Shippers can Respond to Fast-Changing Trade and Tariff Policy Changes

The DHL Trade Atlas 2025, developed by DHL in collaboration with New York University’s Stern School of Business, projects a compound annual growth rate of 3.1% for global goods trade from 2024 to 2029. This rate indicates a slight acceleration compared to the previous decade. DHL, alongside U.S. giants such as UPS and FedEx, serves a crucial role in monitoring economic trends due to its widespread operation across various industries worldwide.

Leading the charge in trade growth within this period are countries like India, Vietnam, Indonesia, and the Philippines. Experts predict that, notwithstanding potential additional U.S. tariff hikes and retaliatory measures from other nations, global trade will continue on a growth trajectory, albeit at a decelerated pace.

The United States continues to play a pivotal role as the leading global importer and the second in export rank. The country’s current import and export shares stand at 13% and 9% respectively, influencing but not singularly dictating the course of global trade, according to the IndexBox platform data.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform  

tesla global trade car bmw us

BMW to Temporarily Absorb Tariff Costs on Cars Imported from Mexico

Bayerische Motoren Werke AG, commonly known as BMW, has announced its intention to temporarily cover the additional expenses incurred by new tariffs on vehicles imported from Mexico to the United States. According to a report from the Wall Street Journal, the German automaker confirmed its commitment to “price protect” select models until May 1.

Read also: BMW CEO Advocates for EU Tariff Reductions on U.S. Car Imports

This decision, impacting models like the 3 Series sedan and 2 Series coupe, including the M2 performance version, comes at a time when the U.S. automobile market is closely watching developments in tariff policies. According to the IndexBox platform, the U.S. imports a significant volume of vehicles annually, with Mexico being a major supplier. The automotive trade relationship between the two countries plays a key role in the supply chain dynamics influencing car prices in the American market.

BMW’s latest measure aims to offer stability in vehicle pricing amidst the changing trade landscape, ensuring that consumers are not immediately affected by the variable costs associated with tariffs.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform

imports 40Seas global trade import supply chain rate cross-border port

Tariff Changes and De Minimis Restrictions Disrupt Small Package Imports

The recent increase in tariffs on Chinese goods, coupled with new restrictions on de minimis shipments under Section 321, has created significant challenges for importers and logistics providers alike. What was once a streamlined process for small package imports has become a complex logistical puzzle.

Read also: How Shippers can Respond to Fast-Changing Trade and Tariff Policy Changes

Businesses that previously relied on a predictable, expedited shipping model must now break down larger shipments into multiple informal entries under the $2,500 threshold, a process that is proving nearly impossible for many.

Delays, increased costs, and compliance hurdles are creating ripple effects across supply chains, leaving businesses scrambling for alternatives to avoid major disruptions.

For companies that move high volumes of small package imports, these regulatory shifts underscore the need for agility in both operations and compliance. Businesses relying on manual processes are finding themselves at a disadvantage, struggling to meet new requirements while maintaining delivery timelines.

Meanwhile, those equipped with advanced customs compliance technology have a massive competitive advantage, enabling them to quickly adapt, minimize disruption, and keep cargo moving.

One example is the ability to automatically convert Type 86 Entries into Informal or Formal Entries as needed. Instead of manually recalculating and adjusting thousands of shipments, customs brokers and importers leveraging the right technology can process these changes seamlessly, ensuring compliance while avoiding costly delays. In an industry where reliability is paramount, customers won’t soon forget which partners were able to maintain smooth operations amid uncertainty.

As trade policies continue to shift, the ability to respond quickly and efficiently will separate industry leaders from those left playing catch-up. For logistics providers, importers, and supply chain stakeholders, staying ahead means investing in solutions that not only support day-to-day efficiency but also provide the flexibility to navigate an increasingly complex global trade environment.

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How Shippers can Respond to Fast-Changing Trade and Tariff Policy Changes

Nearly half of shippers say tariff and trade policy uncertainty is a pain point today, and a key challenge is how rapidly these changes are happening. 

Read also: Shippers Brace for Disruption, Seek Alternatives Amid Looming East Coast Port Strike

News about tariffs seems to break daily. And with the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) being used to impose tariffs, shippers have to be more prepared for potential future tariffs to take effect a few days after their announced versus months which was previously the common practice. 

With the tariff and trade landscape evolving faster than ever, shippers need to be ready with quick and strategic responses. There’s no playbook for how to do this because every supply chain is different. But there are universal actions that all shippers can take to stay agile amid so much uncertainty. They include:

Creating a formalized approach to preparing for tariffs

A flurry of tariff announcements and significant developments like proposed changes to the de minimis rule have been a lot for shippers to keep up with these last few weeks. Having formal processes in place to guide their response to policy changes can help shippers stay ready for whatever comes next.

Some organizations have set up “war room” teams to monitor tariff-related developments as well as formulate scenarios and execute their strategies. For shippers that don’t have the resources to set up a dedicated team like this, there are still steps they can take to help focus their time and efforts in the right place.

For starters, they can make sure they’re only acting on what is official. News stories may help shippers know what’s to come, but only announcements from sources like the White House and the Federal Register should be dictating how shippers actually respond. Resources are available with a list of these trusted sources. 

Shippers should also identify in advance which policy changes will require them to adjust their supply chain network and which changes they can just wait out. The more they’re aligned internally on the criticality of policy changes, the faster they will move.

Having a solid understanding their import data

Today’s trade and tariff landscape has emphasized the importance of data. Facing both uncertainty and the potential for disruption, shippers need to understand the movement of their products, their total landed costs and where they can be flexible when the situation requires it.

Unfortunately, the data providing these insights isn’t always available. Nearly 40% of shippers say they need more data and insights to find savings on tariffs and duties.

Shippers can access all their import and export data in one place using the Automated Commercial Environment (ACE) portal. Shippers that aren’t using the portal should strongly consider applying for an account with the U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP). 

Next, analytics tools can turn this data into useful insights. Tools that were built specifically to analyze import data, for instance, can help shippers identify how new trade measures impact them at the SKU level and understand their customs landed cost. And sourcing analysis tools can help shippers see their import data against broader trade data to identify alternative markets for production and where free trade agreements exist. 

Making data-driven decisions

With a strong grasp of their import data, shippers can start using it to best determine what strategies are right for them. Even the most complex scenarios can be modeled out, incorporating production, transportation and customs costs to give executives detailed strategies to evaluate.

A few strategies in particular that can help shippers address the top priority of controlling costs in the face of higher duties include:

Foreign trade zones (FTZ), which are a good option for shippers importing high-value products that don’t need to ship right away. By using an FTZ, a shipper can defer tariff costs by only paying duties on products when they’re withdrawn from the FTZ or eliminate the cost altogether on goods they plan to re-export.

Entry consolidation programs (ECP) have also emerged as another way to rein in costs – in some cases we’ve saved companies millions of dollars annually. An ECP can reduce a shipper’s overall merchandise processing fee by consolidating multiple ocean or truck-based shipments into one entry.

Additionally, running sourcing exercises can help shippers uncover opportunities to mitigate costs and risks. Shippers should consider a wide range of factors in these exercises, from quality and lead times to trade agreements and ethical sourcing practices. 

Directly paying the CBP can also deliver savings for shippers that are currently going through a customs broker. Shippers doing this will no longer need to pay their broker’s outlay or advance fee, and they can enjoy longer payment terms by using the CBP’s Periodic Monthly Statement.

Navigating tariffs in top gear

Tariff and trade policies may be changing quickly, but shippers can respond to them just as swiftly. With a formalized preparedness plan, a strong grasp of their import data and the ability to make smart decisions using that data, shippers can quickly adapt to policy changes and stay in front of risks to their supply chain.

global trade gold

Record Gold Inventories in US Amid Tariff Influences

A substantial amount of gold has accumulated in US exchange warehouses, driven by considerable influxes of bullion into the country amidst tariff-related activities. According to a recent report, inventories at the New York Comex bourse reached a historic 39.7 million ounces on Wednesday, marking the highest level in data extending back to 1992 (source). This stockpile, valued at approximately $115 billion, has more than doubled since early December as traders capitalized on a profitable arbitrage opportunity presented by a surge in US gold prices over international benchmarks.

Read also: Gold Prices Hit Record High Amid Rising Tariff Concerns

The remarkable premium between New York futures and the conventional London spot market was initially triggered by concerns surrounding potential inclusion of gold in the comprehensive tariff measures under the Trump administration. Consequently, traders were motivated to liquidate short positions on Comex, which elevated futures significantly above London spot prices, thereby driving gold into the US in substantial volumes.

The current gold stockpile now surpasses a previous record reached in February 2021, which was also characterized by a substantial inventory increase amid the pandemic-induced market turbulence. Presently, the market dislocation seems to be attenuating as the physical market tightens and premiums diminish. Daily gold inflows into depositories have diminished from peaks exceeding 1 million ounces in late January to approximately 200,000 ounces or less in recent days.

Traditionally, traders managing futures on the Comex would close their positions by cash settlements. However, delivering gold into Comex-registered warehouses remains an alternative for closing out positions. The gold held in these warehouses now equates to around 80% of the total open interest in Comex gold futures. This figure represents a significant increase from figures before 2020, when banks predominantly held gold in London and managed risks by selling futures in New York.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform  

global trade tariff

Trade War Escalates: Canada, Mexico Prepare Retaliation as U.S. Tariffs Take Effect

The U.S. has officially imposed 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, alongside a doubling of tariffs on Chinese goods to 20%, triggering sharp stock market declines and setting the stage for retaliatory measures from key trade partners.

Read also: Trump’s Tariff Blitz Adds to Global Shipping Turmoil

Despite speculation of a last-minute reversal, President Donald Trump confirmed the tariffs would proceed, affecting over $918 billion in imports from Canada and Mexico. In response, Canada has immediately levied 25% tariffs on $20 billion worth of U.S. goods, with additional measures on $86 billion in imports set for the coming weeks. Mexico has yet to announce its response but has warned of a contingency plan in place. Meanwhile, China has vowed to impose 10-15% tariffs on U.S. agricultural products next week.

The S&P 500 plunged 1.8%, its worst day since December, amid fears of rising costs for U.S. consumers and businesses. Experts warn that increased tariffs will drive up vehicle prices, with pickup trucks potentially seeing a $10,000 price hike due to disrupted supply chains. Logistics firms also anticipate shipping slowdowns, with manufacturers scrambling to reassess sourcing strategies.

Further tariff escalations could be on the horizon, with Trump signaling potential 25% duties on EU exports, claiming the bloc had been “screwing the U.S. for years.”

oil global trade tariffs

Canada-U.S. Oil Trade Resilient Despite Potential Tariffs

Amanda Stephenson reports that the imposition of tariffs on Canadian crude oil would not immediately impact the volume of oil exported to the United States. Read more. The CEO of Enbridge Inc., Greg Ebel, highlighted the deep integration of the North American energy supply, stating that it would take years before any significant changes in oil import volumes could occur.

Read also: Oil Prices Forecasted to Enter Boom Cycle by 2035 Amid Rising Global Demand

Data from IndexBox indicates that as of 2023, Canada remains the largest supplier of crude oil to the U.S., contributing approximately 62% of the total U.S. oil imports. With the U.S. importing about 4 million barrels per day from Canada, any alteration in this trade relationship would require substantial time and adjustment.

Ebel’s comments underscore the logistical challenges of reducing reliance on Canadian oil, particularly given the lack of viable alternatives capable of rapidly filling that supply gap. This integration of energy systems means that both nations have a vested interest in maintaining stable trade relations, even amidst potential tariff implementations.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform  

global trade u.s forecast

Economic Forecasts Revised Amid Manufacturing Slowdown and Tariff Concerns

Economic uncertainties and weaker-than-expected data have prompted significant revisions to forecasts for the first quarter of 2025. Yahoo Finance reports that recent releases show a slowdown in the manufacturing sector and a notable decline in construction spending. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tool, which integrates current data to estimate quarterly economic growth, predicted a 2.8% contraction in GDP for the first three months, a steep drop from an earlier forecast of a 1.5% fall.

Read also: The Impact of Tariffs on American Consumers & Businesses

Data from IndexBox indicates a broader context where the manufacturing index from ISM fell to 50.3 in February, down from January’s 50.9, amid escalating costs faced by businesses. The prices paid index surged to 62.4, marking the highest level since July 2022, signaling heightened expenses for companies. The tariff policy, particularly those proposed against Mexico and Canada, contributes to this economic strain, affecting businesses and consumer spending patterns.

Amidst these developments, economic analysts have been adjusting their predictions. For example, Oxford Economics’ Bernard Yaros adjusted their GDP forecast for Q1 to 0.6% annualized, down from 1% last week. This is a significant reduction from the 2.5% expected in their February baseline forecast. Likewise, JPMorgan revised their GDP prediction to 1.5%, down from 2.25%, while Goldman Sachs adjusted their estimate to 1.6%, from an initial 2.6% in late January.

Nonetheless, confidence in the labor market persists as the February jobs report nears. Economists project the addition of 160,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate maintaining at 4%, a signal that labor market conditions may not fully mirror the downturn reflected in GDP forecasts.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform