IndexBox has just published a new report, the Africa – Wheat – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

The revenue of the wheat market in Africa amounted to $15.5B in 2017, rising by 11% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers’ margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The wheat consumption continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2011, when it surged by 49% year-to-year. In that year, the wheat market attained its peak level of $21.9B. From 2012 to 2017, the growth of the wheat market remained at a somewhat lower figure.

Production in Africa

In 2017, approx. 27M tonnes of wheat were produced in Africa; picking up by 16% against the previous year. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.8% over the period from 2007 to 2017; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. 

Wheat Exports

The exports stood at 218K tonnes in 2017, declining by -20.4% against the previous year. The wheat exports continue to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. In value terms, wheat exports amounted to $63M (IndexBox estimates) in 2017. 

Exports by Country

South Africa was the major exporting country with the volume of exports totaling around 79K tonnes, which amounted to 36% of total exports. It was distantly followed by Tanzania (44K tonnes), Liberia (35K tonnes), Kenya (16K tonnes) and Mauritius (15K tonnes), together comprising 51% share of total exports. Zimbabwe (9.3K tonnes) and Mozambique (5.3K tonnes) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2007 to 2017, the most notable rate of growth in terms of exports, amongst the main exporting countries, was attained by Mauritius (+62.1% per year), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, South Africa ($31M) remains the largest wheat supplier in Africa, comprising 49% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by Tanzania ($11M), with a 18% share of global exports. It was followed by Liberia, with a 8.6% share.

Export Prices by Country

In 2017, the wheat export price in Africa amounted to $288 per tonne, coming down by -8.2% against the previous year. The the export price continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern.

Export prices varied noticeably by the country of destination; the country with the highest export price was Zimbabwe ($401 per tonne), while Liberia ($154 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2017, the most notable rate of growth in terms of export prices was attained by Zimbabwe (+11.5% per year), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Wheat Imports

In 2017, the amount of wheat imported in Africa totaled 46M tonnes, remaining stable against the previous year. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.9% from 2007 to 2017; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations over the period under review.

In value terms, wheat imports stood at $10.2B (IndexBox estimates) in 2017. The wheat imports continue to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. In that year, wheat imports attained their peak of $13.6B. From 2012 to 2017, the growth of wheat imports remained at a lower figure.

Imports by Country

In 2017, Egypt (13M tonnes), distantly followed by Algeria (8.1M tonnes), Nigeria (3.9M tonnes), Morocco (3.6M tonnes) and Sudan (2.2M tonnes) were the largest importers of wheat, together committing 66% of total imports. The following importers – Tunisia (1.9M tonnes), Kenya (1.9M tonnes), South Africa (1.7M tonnes), Libya (1.2M tonnes), Ghana (1.1M tonnes), Mozambique (748K tonnes) and Ethiopia (730K tonnes) together made up 20% of total imports.

From 2007 to 2017, the most notable rate of growth in terms of imports, amongst the main importing countries, was attained by Ghana (+12.6% per year), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Egypt ($2.3B), Algeria ($1.8B) and Nigeria ($1.3B) were the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2017, together accounting for 53% of total imports. Morocco, Sudan, Tunisia, Kenya, South Africa, Ghana, Libya, Ethiopia and Mozambique lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 33%.

Import Prices by Country

In 2017, the wheat import price in Africa amounted to $221 per tonne, jumping by 5.6% against the previous year. The the wheat import price continues to indicate a slight descent. 

Import prices varied noticeably by the country of destination; the country with the highest import price was Nigeria ($342 per tonne), while Mozambique ($177 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2017, the most notable rate of growth in terms of import prices was attained by Libya (+8.6% per year), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform