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The Human Factor of the Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) and Corruption

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Archives, Global Trade Daily, In The News

The Human Factor of the Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) and Corruption

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With the explosive spread of Coronavirus (COVID-19) hospitals, healthcare providers and all citizens are finding a shortage of goods and services and employees are under increased pressure to preserve and excel in their current roles.

Unfortunately, in this time of crisis corruption is thriving and some aim to profit from others’ misfortune and push companies to the brink to maintain profits.

Around the world, countries are reporting shortages in both medicines and medical supplies due to COVID-19. All of these factors put additional strain on already fragile procurement processes and increases the risk that suppliers, knowing that government and individuals have little choice but to pay, demand higher prices.

In these challenging times having open and transparent contracting processes in place helps mitigate these risks. With nowhere to hide, corrupt actors are unable to practice price gouging and must charge governments and individuals reasonable prices.

The stockpiling of supplies such as masks, gloves, and hand sanitizers are also contributing to shortages in medical supplies. In attempts to profit from public panic, some traders have been inflating prices for ordinary consumers.

After pressure from the Department of Justice, Amazon has implemented an effort to remove tens of thousands of deals from merchants that it said attempted to price-gouge customers. The world’s largest online retailer has faced scrutiny over the health-related offers on its platform, and earlier this week, Italy launched a probe into surging prices around the internet for sanitizing gels and hygiene masks. At the same time, Italy battles the biggest outbreak in Europe.

There are lessons to be learned in health-sector Corruption elsewhere from prior epidemics such as Ebola and SARS where procurement and contracting wrongdoing led to deadly consequences. In prior epidemics, Corruption compromised containment efforts, when corrupt actors used petty bribes and other favors to avoid quarantines, roadblocks, and safe body collection procedures. Even ventilators and other medical oxygen-related equipment have been the subject of bribes and kickbacks, sometimes leading to the tragic deaths of patients. These examples demonstrate the worst case of what can happen without resilient anti-corruption policies.

In the first federal action against fraud involving the coronavirus outbreak, the DOJ obtained a temporary restraining order against a website selling a bogus vaccine.

The DOJ said Sunday, March 21st, that operators of the website “coronavirusmedicalkit.com” were engaging in an alleged wire fraud scheme to profit from the confusion and fear surrounding COVID-19.

The website claimed to offer customers access to the World Health Organization (WHO) vaccine kits in exchange for a shipping charge of $4.95. There are currently no legitimate COVID-19 vaccines, and the WHO is not distributing any such vaccine.

Besides compliance issues with third party business practices with goods and services, companies are experiencing enormous business pressure. Many companies have salespeople who cannot travel due to precautions taken, canceled flights, or, worse, quarantines. They cannot visit customers or partners, leading to slower sales. Global supply chains are disrupted, with shortages of parts and products. Company events and conferences are being canceled, resulting in fewer opportunities to build relationships with customers and market products. Customer demand for company products may be falling, and companies may be declining to make revenue projections during this time of uncertainty about the spread and effects of the coronavirus.

These disruptions can increase the pressure on salespeople to meet their sales targets. Salespeople may feel additional pressure now, when sales may be sluggish, and again when business gets back to normal, and they want to make up for the time lost. That pressure can lead some people to make the wrong choices—to engage in bribery or other misconduct—to generate business. Besides, the heightened emphasis on business priorities due to the losses from the coronavirus can push anti-corruption compliance further down on the priority list.

If/when the DOJ and SEC discover bribery or Corruption, they assuredly will not be accepting a “coronavirus defense” from companies. Compliance officers should be aware of situations like the coronavirus that could raise corruption risks and try to guard against them. Compliance officers should refer explicitly to the disruption caused by the coronavirus and emphasize that the company is committed to complying with anti-corruption laws. The communications must be to the employees who need to see them, such as salespeople who interact with customers, or “gatekeeper” functions like finance who review financial transactions.

Most importantly, senior executives and the board, if appropriate, need to make sure that the business pressures resulting from the coronavirus do not overshadow the company’s commitment to compliance and that values and ethics are maintained.

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For more information or questions, please contact Frank Orlowski at frank@ationadvisory.com or +1917-821-2147 and please visit our website at www.ationadvisory.com

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Archives, Global Trade Daily, Stories

Global Trade After the Pandemic

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The staggering impact of the coronavirus pandemic on world trade is still reverberating and will for many months. Businesses are struggling to adjust to the current challenges that travel bans and factory stoppages present to their firms. They are concerned about how to keep their employees safe, informed, and on the payroll in the face of a dramatic economic turndown. But once this pandemic is over, what will its lasting impact be on global trade? How will the trade environment change and how will successful companies respond?

The jury is still out

What the final economic and personal toll of the coronavirus will be to the U.S. and global economy remains to be seen. It may take several months or years to ride out the pandemic and sort out the first stage economic loss that it will leave in its wake. The coronavirus pandemic has already drawn comparisons to the 9/11 attacks and the 1987 and 2008 recessions as far as its overall impact on the U.S. and global economy. It is a uniquely painful moment for international business, especially in regards to the movement of people and products. The recent lock-downs throughout the European Union and the travel ban from Europe to the United States, for example, have no historical precedents. Much like the world looked to regulatory changes in the wake of 9/11 or the financial cascade of problems from 2008, they will again as this initial impact recedes and governments assess how they failed to prepare for this pandemic and how they can help curtail the damage of such occurrences in the future.

Worker safety and transportation screening will be promoted

Unions, companies, and government regulators are already looking at how working conditions will need to change to better protect employees who work in the global trade trenches. From airport workers to longshoremen, workers in many key industries are exposed to cargo and passengers from overseas that potentially could be carrying new diseases across borders. The potential costs of improved detection and phytosanitary procedures will eventually be passed to consumers, but these expenses will be difficult issues to negotiate for industries that have already been hammered by first the U.S.-China trade war and then the dramatic world-wide reduction of traffic flow due to the pandemic.

Much as the terrorist attacks of 9/11 and related incidents gave rise to a host of new security measures at ports and borders, the spread of the pandemic will eventually be the subject of substantial discussion, public hearings, and eventual regulatory changes.  Governments will look for systems that would help them to better screen for potential pathogens at transportation nodes, which may include longer periods of isolation for cargo, and longer lines at the airport for global travelers (not to mention more tax funds to set up these screening and control systems).

Air and cruise industries: only the strong will survive

Passenger airlines and the cruise industry will not likely recover from the economic impact of the pandemic without some substantial government assistance. Even with that financial support, both industries will face substantial challenges to get back to a healthy volume of traffic as the pandemic brought both cruise and air traffic to a standstill. Coming on the heels of ‘flight shaming’ and a wide-spread movement to reduce their carbon emissions, as well as the Boeing crashes and 737 MAX delays, the airlines were already in a delicate position. The pandemic was the knock-out punch.  In the short term, airline CEOs such as British Airway’s Alex Cruz have noted that this is a “crisis of global proportion like no other we have known.” Airlines are projected to lose as much as $113 billion in 2020 alone. Cruises have faced similar challenges, essentially given a ‘death blow’ by the U.S. State Department warning to avoid cruise ships and port lockdowns in the Mediterranean.

What will change as a result?

The economic results of the pandemic have had some additional first-tier effects beyond border safety and damage to the transportation industry. For example, commentators have already noted that the pandemic has forced us into a great virtual working experiment. Insurance companies and their clients will be looking closely into (and likely litigating over) the responsibility for losses as a result of the pandemic. Governments will look to fix the problems we are already seeing in regards to testing and readiness. But what are the secondary effects of the pandemic for businesses? How can companies position themselves to survive and possibly benefit from the changing business landscape that awaits us?

Invest in strategy and security expertise as well as sourcing flexibility

Is this the coronavirus pandemic an isolated incident? Not according to the World Health Organization (WHO), which warns that ‘global catastrophic biological risks’ may be seen on a more regular basis in the coming decades. On top of that natural risk, consider that terrorist organizations have also seen the remarkable disruption caused by the pandemic and may attempt to weaponize biological weapons. It is a risk that governments have known about for some time, but seems even more realistic now that we’ve seen a pandemic in action and the challenges that governments face in attempting to contain it.

This future risk should result in companies spending more time and energy on both corporate strategy and security. The increasingly volatile state of the global markets means that companies will need to beef up their existing forecasting and modeling capabilities. On the risk side, security of employees and far-flung assets will take on a new urgency in the wake of the pandemic. Preparing a company that can flex and adapt in volatile times will mark the difference between companies that thrive and those that go bankrupt. Many companies will also be doing a complex overhaul of their logistics and production concepts.

The US-China trade conflict, and other isolationist tendencies that will linger after this pandemic, will encourage companies to both look closer to home for their production as well as to value the benefit of having alternative sources.  Countries like Canada, Mexico or Latin America will seem more attractive after this experience to U.S. companies. In Europe, sourcing within the EU makes much more sense once the factors of reliability and local access are properly factored into cost comparisons.

The Bottom Line

This pandemic will break firms that cannot handle the financial strain of such a dramatic and abrupt downturn. Government investment and bailouts will allow some to keep their heads above water, but others will simply disappear. Those that do survive will find a different global trade environment: one that demands a greater focus on logistics flexibility and security and the ability to succeed in an international business environment that has new regulatory boundaries which will challenge ‘just in time’ concepts and put a greater value on diverse and more local sourcing. As with all challenges, this situation will also bring opportunities – companies whose products foster virtual communication in businesses and provide equipment that can identify and protect workers from biological agents will see a new surge in interest.  Global world trade will not be killed by this pandemic, but it will have a different and potentially more chaotic nature.

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Kirk Samson is the owner of Samson Atlantic LLC, a Chicago-based international business consulting company that offers market research, political risk assessment, and international expansion assistance. Mr. Samson is a former U.S. diplomat and international law advisor who lived and worked in ten different countries.

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Archives, Global Logistics, Global Trade Daily

Overcoming Obstacles in 2020 to Optimize the Digital Supply Chain

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The logistics and supply chain market is transforming quickly. For the stakeholders involved, managing multiple partners, high customer expectations, siloed IT systems and dynamic conditions is a challenge. I recently shared my predictions for the supply chain and logistics industry and what global and domestic businesses can do to prepare for success in the new year. But, exactly how can businesses prepare for and confront some of the biggest barriers in 2020?

Transportation capacity constraints lead to inflated prices and significant waste.

In the supply chain, the saying “time is money” is particularly meaningful. Digital freight forwarder, Zencargo, analyzed more than 100 shipments from across the UK and found that more than 100 million hours are wasted per year in procurement, supplier management and freight-administration functions, for a total annual cost of nearly $2 billion.

With the state of capacity constraints, the transportation industry is a key contributor to the waste and inflated prices in logistics and supply chain processes. In the United States alone, 15 to 25 percent of trucks on the road are empty — and for non-empty miles, trailers are 36 percent underutilized. The Environmental Defense Fund (EDF) advises that capturing just half of this underutilized capacity would cut freight truck emissions by 100 million tons per year and reduce expenditures on diesel fuel by more than $30 billion a year. According to EDF, the movement of goods currently accounts for nine percent of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions, which is nearly 500 million metric tons annually in direct emissions.

On top of that, due to the fuel emissions produced by this sector it is responsible for an additional 100 million tons of climate pollution each year. Globally, trucks are the largest source of freight emissions (57 percent), and the emissions resulting from transportation vehicles and logistics operations contribute significantly to air pollution and unhealthy air quality.

With advanced technology-driven solutions, organizations have the ability to reduce waste and capacity constraints. By leveraging artificial intelligence and GPS devices to optimize shipping routes on an international, national and local scale, companies can decrease the distance and time involved in shipping products. In addition to optimizing planned routes, advanced analytics can also be utilized to take account of congestion and update routes in real-time. Through the use of technology, companies of all sizes can reduce carbon emissions and drive sustainability across the supply chain.

Looking ahead, I believe we will continue to see a concerted effort to reduce waste in the supply chain. We need to. The potential of an orchestrated, collaborative supply chain that addresses environmental and social challenges is profound. It is the responsibility of the industry to make the movement of goods sustainable. Across industries, leading with purpose, ethics and social responsibility is a model that resonates with businesses — including employees, partners, stakeholders, as well as with customers.

In fact, today’s consumers expect companies to meet a certain set of ethical standards to gain their buy-in. Companies that don’t address sustainability issues are at risk of losing business. Eliminating the empty miles and excess CO2 emissions will become a bigger focus for smaller companies as larger organizations use sustainability initiatives and ethical standards as criteria when selecting supply chain partners. Prepare for tomorrow, today by maximizing capacity and minimizing empty miles.

Increasing customer demands and faster delivery expectations

Due to rising customer demands and unprecedented expectations for product availability and expedited delivery, companies’ transportation spend is skyrocketing — and will continue to accelerate. Thanks to a culture of instant gratification, customers want what they want, where and when they want it — and that means they want it immediately. According to findings from Dropoff, 69 percent of consumers would not purchase from a retailer again if their delivery was late. Keeping up with the high customer demand brought on by events like Cyber Monday can be challenging for companies and especially exhausting resource-wise. However, this elevated pressure offers an opportunity to optimize and reduce costs.

In 2019, holiday retail sales grew 4.1 percent over the same period in 2018 to $730.2 billion, NRF reported. Online shopping sales during the winter holiday season increased 14.6% in 2019, accounting for $167.8 billion of the total. Given the high-demand of the holiday season, companies in 2020 should look to implement technologies, such as dynamic mapping, to ensure products are delivered efficiently and on-time to their final destinations.

With dynamic mapping, retailers can gain real-time visibility into their products, receiving exception alerts and recommendations, including dynamic predictive ETA. In addition, use of solutions like dynamic mapping provides real-time analysis, based on data from inside and outside their network, delivering the most accurate dynamic visibility available.

Digital Supply Chain 2020

In this increasingly complex industry, the supply chain will never be immune to disruptions — some things are simply unpredictable. But moving forward in 2020, one thing is certain: the ability to rapidly innovate and adapt will be vital for companies in the supply chain ecosystem. To effectively manage expectations and strategize for the year ahead, businesses should take a proactive approach to addressing any obstacles in their path and face challenges head on. Prioritizing sustainability as a strategic initiative is imperative for all businesses, across industries. Companies should equip themselves with the talent, tools and resources to navigate disruptions and deliver real results in 2020 and beyond.