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U.S. Sugar Prices to Ease 4% With Government Support and Sufficient Global Supply 

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Archives, Global Trade Daily, News

U.S. Sugar Prices to Ease 4% With Government Support and Sufficient Global Supply 

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IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘U.S. – Sugar – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights‘. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

In 2022, sugar prices in the U.S. are forecast to drop 4% y/y with support measures from the American government and expected sufficient global supply. Last year, the average retail refined sugar price in America jumped by 8% y/y to 68.4 cents per pound.

According to USDA data, sugar prices in the U.S. rose moderately last year, although domestic production recorded growth during that period. In 2021, the average retail refined sugar price in the U.S. amounted to 68.4 cents per pound, increasing by 8% y/y. This was the highest spike in annual retail sugar prices since 2011.

American beet and cane sugar production rose by 10% y/y to 8.3M tonnes last year. Yield per harvested sugarbeet area increased by 13% y/y to 33.2 tonnes per acre. Combined with supply chain disruptions related to Hurricane Ida, rising energy and logistics costs have contributed to the sugar price growth. Imports into the U.S. amounted to 1.6M tonnes in Q1-Q3 2021, dropping by -11% compared to the same period 2020.

This year, U.S. sugar prices are forecast to ease by approx. 4% y/y due to expected stable supply in the global market and support measures provided by the American government. The U.S. Department of Agriculture announced the following actions to increase available sugar supplies to the U.S. market: increasing the Overall Allotment Quantity in 2022, transferring allocations from beet processors with surplus allocation to those with deficit allocation, and boosting raw cane sugar imports from Mexico.

U.S. Sugar Imports by Country

In 2020, the amount of sugar imported into the U.S. expanded to 2.4M tonnes, picking up by 2.4% against 2019. In value terms, supplies totaled $1.2B (IndexBox estimates).

Mexico (735K tonnes), Brazil (404K tonnes) and the Dominican Republic (212K tonnes) were the main suppliers of sugar imports to the U.S., together comprising 57% of total imports.

In 2020, supplies from Brazil grew twofold, while imports from the other countries experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Mexico ($423M) constituted the largest supplier of sugar to the U.S., comprising 34% of total imports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by Brazil ($185M), with a 15% share of total imports. It was followed by the Dominican Republic, with a 9.5% share.

The average sugar import price stood at $525 per tonne in 2020, surging by 1.6% against the previous year. Prices varied noticeably by the country of origin; the country with the highest price was Colombia ($850 per tonne), while the price for Guatemala ($422 per tonne) was amongst the lowest. In 2020, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the Philippines, while the prices for the other major suppliers experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Platform

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Archives, Global Trade Daily, Imports/Exports, International Trade

Brazil’s Sugar Exports to Reach the Highest Level with Doubling Supplies to China

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IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘Brazil – Sugar – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

From January to August 2021, Brazil’s exported 23.7M tonnes, which was 26% larger than in the same period of 2020. This year, China’s sugar purchases from Brazil have doubled, reaching 4M tonnes. Shipments to Algeria, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, Canada, and the United Arab Emirates have also grown sharply. Last year, sugar exports from Brazil hit record 27M tonnes, jumping by +67% y-o-y. In value terms, exports constituted $7.4B. China, Algeria and Bangladesh were the largest importers of Brazilian sugar in 2020. 

Brazil’s Sugar Exports by Country

From January to August 2021, Brazil’s sugar exports reached 23.7M tonnes, up 26% from the same period in 2020. In value terms, exports exceeded $5.8B over eight-month of 2021. It is expected that sugar exports from Brazil will hit the last year’s record by the end of 2021.

This year, soaring supplies to China, Algeria, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, Canada, and the United Arab Emirates provided the most export increment. China’s sugar purchases rose twofold against the same period of 2020, reaching 4M tonnes by September 2021.

In 2020, the amount of sugar exported from Brazil skyrocketed to 27M tonnes, jumping by +67% compared with 2019. In value terms, sugar exports skyrocketed by +70% y-o-y to $7.4B (IndexBox estimates) in 2020.

China (4.7M tonnes), Algeria (2.4M tonnes) and Bangladesh (2.3M tonnes) were the main destinations of sugar exports from Brazil, with a combined 35% share of total exports. These countries were followed by India, Indonesia, Nigeria, Morocco, Malaysia, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Canada and Egypt, which together accounted for a further 51%.

In 2020, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the leading countries of destination, was attained by Malaysia, while exports for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth. Malaysian sugar purchases from Brazil grew fourfold in physical terms.

In value terms, China ($1.3B), Algeria ($669M) and Bangladesh ($628M) constituted the largest markets for sugar exported from Brazil worldwide, with a combined 35% share of total exports. These countries were followed by India, Indonesia, Nigeria, Morocco, Malaysia, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Canada and Egypt, which together accounted for a further 50%.

In 2020, the average sugar export price amounted to $277 per tonne, almost unchanged from the previous year. Average prices varied noticeably for the significant foreign markets. In 2020, the countries with the highest prices were Morocco ($281 per tonne) and Bangladesh ($279 per tonne), while the average prices for exports to Iraq ($263 per tonne) and Indonesia ($269 per tonne) were amongst the lowest. In 2020, the most notable growth rate in terms of prices was recorded for supplies to Morocco, while the prices for the other significant destinations experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Platform

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Archives, Global Trade Daily, Imports/Exports

Global Sugar Production to Grow Tangibly This Year, Keeping Prices Stable

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IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘World – Sugar – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

This year, world sugar production is expected to rise by 3% to 193M tonnes. The growth will be encouraged by favorable weather conditions in most of the largest producing countries, as well as the providing exemptions on the neonicotinoid usage against plant diseases and blights in France, Germany and the UK. The drop in sugar production and shipments from Brazil will be offset by large volumes coming from Thailand, which will boost global exports by +2.6% y-o-y. The increased supply in the world market is to keep sugar prices relatively stable over the next two years.

Key Trends and Insights

According to IndexBox estimates based on USDA data, global sugar production will increase by +3% y-o-y to 193M tonnes in 2021, driven by high demand from China and India. The economy’s gradual recovery after the pandemic and the relative normalization of the catering and food service sector are contributing to the growth of worldwide demand.

Sugar production in the U.S. will remain at its 2020 rate to the end of this year and will amount to 8.7M tonnes. Strong growth in America’s sugar beet crop should offset the expected decline in sugar cane production in Louisiana.

Due to a prolonged drought, the sugarcane crop in Mexico may decline slightly to 7.5M tonnes, while in Australia favorable weather conditions will boost production by +1.5% y-o-y to 4.6M tonnes.

Production in Brazil will fall by -5% y-o-y to 26M tonnes due to dry weather and wildfires, as well as the decrease in sugar cane planted in favor of soybeans and corn.

An increase in harvest compared to last year is expected in Guatemala (by +3% to 3.1M tonnes), India (by +3% to 36M tonnes), Indonesia (by +3% to 2.3M tonnes), Pakistan (by +14%to 6.6M tonnes), Thailand (by +39% to 25M tonnes), and Russia (by +6% to 7.5M tonnes).

In the EU, sugar production is forecasted to increase by +7% to 19M tonnes this year. This will most likely be facilitated by the removal of bans on the use of neonicotinoids in France and Germany. Sugar beet seeds will be allowed to be coated with the substance to protect against the yellow beet virus, which would ensure high yields. In the UK, the approval to use neonicotinoids should increase yields by +11% to 1.2M tonnes.

Global sugar exports will increase by +2.6% to 39M tonnes. A decrease in exports from Brazil will be offset by growth in supplies from Thailand. Russian sugar exports are expected to decline by approx. 390K tonnes due to decreases in shipments to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan amid falling demand for imported sugar in these countries.

According to USDA forecasts, global sugar prices in the current year and the first half of 2022 will remain stable at $0.44 per kg. This will be due to an increase in the sugar supply on the world market, despite the decline in production in some above-mentioned countries.

Global Sugar Exports by Country

In 2020, global exports of sugar skyrocketed to 35M tonnes, increasing by +23% compared with 2019 figures. In value terms, sugar exports rose remarkably to $10.4B in 2020.

Brazil prevails in sugar export structure, amounting to 27M tonnes, which was approx. 75% of total exports in 2020. Thailand (3M tonnes) held the second position in the ranking, followed by India (1.7M tonnes). All these countries together took near 13% share of total exports. The following exporters – Guatemala (824K tonnes), South Africa (671K tonnes) and El Salvador (532K tonnes) – each finished at a 5.7% share of total exports.

Brazil was also the fastest-growing country in terms of sugar exports (+66.9% y-o-y) in 2020. At the same time, India (+21.3%) and El Salvador (+3.5%) also displayed positive paces of growth. By contrast, Guatemala (-19.6%), Thailand (-20.9%) and South Africa (-31.0%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period.

In value terms, Brazil ($7.4B) remains the largest sugar supplier worldwide, comprising 71% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by Thailand ($885M), with an 8.5% share of global exports. It was followed by India, with a 5.4% share.

Largest Sugar Importers Worldwide

Indonesia (5.3M tonnes) and China (4.7M tonnes) represented roughly 42% of total imports of sugar in 2020. The U.S. (2.3M tonnes) took a 9.9% share (based on tonnes) of total imports, which put it in second place, followed by Malaysia (8.8%), India (8.5%) and South Korea (7.8%). Japan (1,049K tonnes), the UK (528K tonnes), South Africa (385K tonnes) and Taiwan (Chinese) (384K tonnes) held a little share of total imports.

In value terms, the largest sugar importing markets worldwide were Indonesia ($1.8B), China ($1.5B) and the U.S. ($1.3B), with a combined 49% share of global imports. These countries were followed by Malaysia, India, South Korea, Japan, South Africa, the UK and Taiwan (Chinese), which together accounted for a further 31%.

Source: IndexBox Platform