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Soybean Oil Prices to Gain 4% in 2022 Due to Boosting Demand for Biofuels


Soybean Oil Prices to Gain 4% in 2022 Due to Boosting Demand for Biofuels

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘World – Soybean Oil – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

In 2022, soybean oil prices are forecast to rise by nearly 4% to $1,425 per tonne, driven by boosting demand for biofuels. In 2021, the average annual soybean oil price skyrocketed, rising 65% y-o-y to $1,385 per tonne. India remains the world’s largest soybean oil importer, while Argentina holds the position of the leading global supplier. 

Soybean Oil Price Forecast 2022

According to the World Bank’s October forecast, the average annual soybean oil price is set to grow by nearly 4% to $1,425 per tonne in 2022. Rising demand for biofuels, especially in Asia, will be the key driver of that increase.

In 2021, the average annual soybean oil price soared by 65% y-o-y, from $838 per tonne to $1,385 per tonne. The most rapid price growth was recorded in Q3, instigated by weather-related production shortfalls in South America, strong demand in China, and high freight rates.

Soybean Oil Imports 

In 2020, overseas soybean oil purchases increased by 7.5% to 13M tonnes, rising for the second year in a row after three years of decline. In value terms, soybean oil imports expanded notably to $10.3B (IndexBox estimates).

India was the major importing country with a purchase volume of around 3.7M tonnes, which resulted in 28% of global supplies. China (963K tonnes) held the second position in the ranking, followed by Algeria (670K tonnes) and Bangladesh (666K tonnes). All these countries together took near 17% share of total imports. Morocco (547K tonnes), Mauritania (537K tonnes), Peru (521K tonnes), South Korea (390K tonnes), Colombia (378K tonnes), Venezuela (373K tonnes), Egypt (243K tonnes), Poland (229K tonnes) and Nepal (215K tonnes) followed a long way behind the leaders.

In value terms, India ($3B) constitutes the largest market for imported soybean oil worldwide, comprising 29% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by China ($725M), with a 7% share of the total value. It was followed by Algeria, with a 4.6% share.

Top Largest Soybean Oil Exporters

In 2020, Argentina (5.3M tonnes) was the key exporter of soybean oil, constituting 42% of total exports. It was distantly followed by the U.S. (1,238K tonnes), Brazil (1,110K tonnes), Paraguay (631K tonnes), the Netherlands (615K tonnes) and Russia (611K tonnes), together creating a 33% share of global shipments. Spain (387K tonnes), Bolivia (377K tonnes), Ukraine (302K tonnes), Turkey (208K tonnes) and Germany (192K tonnes) held relatively small shares of the total volume.

In value terms, Argentina ($3.7B) remains the largest soybean oil supplier worldwide, comprising 39% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by the U.S. ($979M), with a 10% share of total supplies. It was followed by Brazil, with an 8% share.

Source: IndexBox Platform