IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘World – Rice – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

This year, rice prices are forecast to ease, thanks primarily to rising production and exports from India, Thailand, Vietnam, China, and Pakistan. India dominates global trade, more than doubling its supplies at a competitive cost over the past two years.

Rice prices are predicted to drop this year with sufficient supply worldwide, a new report published by IndexBox states. According to USDA data, global milled rice production is forecast to remain stable, totalling 510M tonnes. World’s total exports will reach 51M tonnes, which includes paddy, milled, semi-milled and broken rice, staying at the previous year level.

Sufficient exports from Thailand, Vietnam, China, Pakistan, and low-cost rice supplies from India are set to provide price stability this year. According to the World Bank forecast, the average price for white rice from Thailand (5% broken, FOB, Bangkok) will drop by 12% y/y to near $400 per tonne in 2022. Last year, the prices for Thailand’s rice fell by approx. 8% y/y, while Vietnamese white rice (5% broken, FOB, Hanoi) rose in price by 4% y/y to $446 per tonne.

India dominates global trade, boosting total rice exports twofold to over 20M tonnes during the past two years. Due to increasing Minimum Price Support (MSP) for rice, India managed to sharply expand the harvested area and ramp up output and exports, offering the product at competitive prices on the global market. India has also invested massive funds in its deep-water ports to ship in bulk in addition to the typical containers.

Global Rice Exports by Country

Global rice exports were estimated at 46M tonnes in 2020, rising by 9.8% on the previous year. In value terms, supplies expanded notably to $25.2B (IndexBox estimates).

India represented the major exporting country with an export of around 15M tonnes, which accounted for 32% of total exports. It was distantly followed by Thailand (5.7M tonnes), Viet Nam (5.6M tonnes), Pakistan (4M tonnes), the U.S. (3.3M tonnes) and China (2.3M tonnes), together constituting a 45% share of total exports. Myanmar (2M tonnes), Brazil (1.4M tonnes), Uruguay (1M tonnes), Paraguay (0.9M tonnes), and Italy (0.8M tonnes) occupied a minor share of total exports.

In value terms, India ($8B) remains the largest rice supplier worldwide, comprising 32% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by Thailand ($3.7B), with a 15% share of global exports. It was followed by Viet Nam, with an 11% share.

From 2018 to 2020, the average annual growth rate in terms of value in India amounted to +4.2%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Thailand (-18.7% per year) and Viet Nam (+3.2% per year).

Source: IndexBox Platform