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Red Sea Crisis and Global Trends Drive Up Ship Maintenance Costs

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Red Sea Crisis and Global Trends Drive Up Ship Maintenance Costs

The maritime industry is grappling with rising costs for vessel stores and spares as geopolitical tensions in the Red Sea force shipping routes to detour around Africa. This shift is compounding operational challenges and inflating procurement expenses.

Read also: Trump Targets Houthis with Terrorist Designation Amid Ongoing Red Sea Shipping Crisis

Drewry, a leading maritime research firm, reports that ships rerouting from the Bab-al-Mandab Strait to the Cape of Good Hope have driven up tonne-miles significantly. Additionally, the diversion away from the Suez Canal has disrupted established procurement routines, compelling operators to rely on South African ports, where costs for stores and spares are notably higher.

Data from Drewry’s latest research reveals that global stores and spares costs rose by 5.4% and 5.5% respectively in 2024. However, the firm notes that these increases stem from more than just route changes.

The report highlights a broader cost escalation trend driven by deferred maintenance and procurement backlogs. While prices have eased slightly from the peaks of 2021-2022, the ongoing shipbuilding surge continues to place upward pressure on these critical cost elements.

Adding to the complexity, geopolitical tensions and emerging regulatory demands are further straining global supply chains. Drewry warns that these factors could exacerbate cost increases for vessel operators.

Drewry’s “Ship Operating Costs 2024/25” report delves deeper into the issue, analyzing expenses across 47 vessel types, including container ships, bulk carriers, and tankers. The report examines key operating costs such as manning, insurance, stores and spares, and maintenance, offering invaluable insights for navigating these turbulent times.

As the industry braces for continued challenges, ship operators will need to adopt innovative strategies to manage rising costs and maintain efficient operations in an increasingly volatile global environment.

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Red Sea Trade Route Faces Prolonged Uncertainty Despite Gaza Ceasefire

Global shipping companies remain hesitant to return to the Red Sea trade route, even after a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, as ongoing security concerns over Yemen’s Houthi attacks persist.

Read also: MO Chief Urges Action as Red Sea Attacks by Houthi Forces Disrupt Global Shipping

Persistent Threats Undermine Confidence

Yemen’s Houthi leader recently declared that the group would monitor the ceasefire and potentially resume attacks on shipping if the truce is breached. Since November 2023, the Houthis have conducted over 100 attacks on vessels, sinking two ships, seizing another, and killing at least four seafarers, citing solidarity with Palestinians in Gaza.

This wave of attacks has caused significant disruptions in global shipping and led many companies to divert vessels around the Cape of Good Hope, bypassing the Red Sea and the Suez Canal entirely.

Industry Leaders Opt for Safer Routes

Executives across industries, including shipping, insurance, and retail, emphasize that the risks in the Red Sea remain too high. Jay Foreman, CEO of Basic Fun, a U.S.-based toy supplier to retailers like Walmart and Amazon, stated, “I’ll spend the extra money and send everything around the tip of Africa. It’s just not worth taking a chance.”

Similarly, Matt Castle, VP of global forwarding at logistics giant C.H. Robinson, noted that a swift return to the Suez Canal is unlikely, citing challenges such as high cargo insurance costs and the complexities of revising ocean shipping plans.

Trial Voyages to Test Ceasefire Credibility

Even if the Houthis halt attacks, full resumption of Red Sea trade may not occur until mid-2025. Craig Poole, managing director of Cardinal Global Logistics, suggested that shipping lines would likely conduct trial voyages to verify the ceasefire’s stability.

Larger vessels, such as tankers carrying liquefied natural gas, face additional delays due to the heightened risks of transporting flammable cargo. Norwegian shipper Wallenius Wilhelmsen and retailers like H&M and Lidl have also stated that they will wait for clear evidence of safety improvements before resuming operations through the Red Sea.

Rising Insurance Costs Compound Risks

War risk insurance premiums for Red Sea voyages remain elevated, adding hundreds of thousands of dollars in extra costs per trip. Current rates range between 0.6% and 2% of a vessel’s value, particularly for ships associated with Israel or the U.S.

The European Union’s naval force in the Red Sea has maintained its threat assessment, underscoring the ongoing risks.

Outlook: Waiting for Stability

With high stakes for crew safety, cargo security, and operational costs, the Red Sea trade route is unlikely to regain its pre-crisis status soon. Companies and insurers will continue to monitor the situation, prioritizing stability before committing to renewed use of this critical shipping corridor.

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Hapag-Lloyd and Maersk Boost Earnings Forecasts as Red Sea Disruptions Reshape Global Shipping

Hapag-Lloyd has followed future alliance partner Maersk in upgrading its 2024 earnings outlook, citing higher-than-expected demand and rising freight rates despite operational challenges.

Read also: Maersk Predicts Prolonged Trade Disruptions into 2024 Amid Red Sea Conflict

The German shipping giant announced preliminary results for the first nine months of 2024, reporting a Group EBITDA of approximately $3.6 billion (EUR 3.3 billion) and Group EBIT of around $1.9 billion (EUR 1.8 billion).

“Given the current course of business, characterized by stronger-than-expected demand and improved freight rates, and despite higher costs from diverting vessels around the Cape of Good Hope, we are revising our earnings outlook upward for 2024,” the company said in a statement.

Upgraded Financial Guidance

Hapag-Lloyd now forecasts its full-year Group EBITDA to be between $4.6 billion and $5.0 billion, up from the prior estimate of $3.5 billion to $4.6 billion. Group EBIT is expected to increase to $2.4 billion-$2.8 billion, compared to the earlier projection of $1.3 billion-$2.4 billion.

Despite the strong performance, Hapag-Lloyd cautioned that geopolitical risks and freight market volatility could still impact its outlook. Final results for the first nine months of the year will be released on November 14, 2024.

Maersk’s Parallel Earnings Upgrade

Hapag-Lloyd’s earnings upgrade mirrors a similar move by Maersk, which recently raised its 2024 financial forecast for the fourth time. Maersk reported Q3 revenues of $15.8 billion, with an underlying EBITDA of $4.8 billion, citing a combination of strong demand and disruptions in the Red Sea.

As a result, Maersk’s full-year forecast now projects an underlying EBITDA of $11.0 billion-$11.5 billion, a dramatic rise from its earlier guidance of $1 billion-$6 billion issued in February.

Shipping Industry Adjusts to Red Sea Instability

The ongoing Red Sea crisis, marked by Houthi-led disruptions along vital shipping lanes, has forced both Hapag-Lloyd and Maersk to modify operational strategies. To ensure vessel safety, the two carriers have diverted ships via the longer Cape of Good Hope route, bypassing the unstable Suez Canal. While the diversion increases transit times and costs, it provides greater security for crews and cargo.

The Gemini Cooperation between Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd, set to launch in February 2025, will leverage a hub-and-spoke strategy across seven trade lanes. The goal is to achieve a 90% service reliability rate, far surpassing the industry average of 53%.

 Navigating Market Uncertainty

As geopolitical tensions escalate, shipping companies are increasingly forced to reroute vessels and adjust strategies, reshaping established trade routes. Although these disruptions add to transit times and costs, the resulting surge in freight rates is bolstering carriers’ profits.

The evolving landscape underscores the need for flexibility in global shipping operations, as carriers like Hapag-Lloyd and Maersk adapt to ensure profitability in the face of uncertainty.