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U.S. Rape Seed Prices to Spike 74% to Over $320 per tonne in 2022

seed

U.S. Rape Seed Prices to Spike 74% to Over $320 per tonne in 2022

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘U.S. – Rape Or Colza Seed – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights‘. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

This year, the average rape seed price in the U.S. is forecast to pick up 74% y/y to a record $320 per tonne owing to reducing supply. Unfavourable weather in North Dakota adversely affected yields, decreasing the total rape seed output.

The average rape seed price in the U.S. is forecast to skyrocket from $184 per tonne in 2021 to a record $320 per tonne due to lower supply. Although the area under canola was expanded by 328K acres to 2.15M acres, poor weather in North Dakota led to yields reducing sharply last year. Dakota’s production accounts for 85% of total American rape output.

An expected decrease in rape imports to the U.S. will be another driver of the price growth. Much like in North Dakota, Canadian farmers saw poor yields and produced a record-low canola seed volume. This eventually will make Canada, which shapes 92% of U.S. rape seed imports, reduce exports to the country. Suppliers from Ukraine and the EU will likely expand their canola shipments to the U.S., filling the gap after reduced availability in North America.

U.S. Rape and Colza Seed Imports

In 2020, the amount of rape or colza seed imported into the U.S. expanded rapidly to 567K tonnes, with an increase of 12% compared with the year before. In value terms, supplies rose to $254M (IndexBox estimates).

Canada (524K tonnes) was the leading supplier of rape and colza seed to the U.S., with a 92% share of total imports. Moreover, rape and colza seed imports from Canada exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest supplier, Argentina (25K tonnes), more than tenfold.

In value terms, Canada ($226M) constituted the most significant rape and colza seed supplier to the U.S., comprising 89% of total imports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by Argentina ($13M), with a 5.3% share of total imports.

Top Rape and Colza Seed Suppliers Worldwide

Global exports of rape or colza seeds amounted to 25M tonnes in 2020.In value terms, supplies totaled $11.1B.

Canada was the largest exporter of rape or colza seed globally, with the volume of supplies recording 12M tonnes, which was approx. 47% of total exports in 2020. Ukraine (2.4M tonnes) took a 9.5% share (based on tonnes) of total exports, which put it in second place, followed by the Netherlands (7.8%) and Australia (6.7%). France (1,060K tonnes), Belgium (946K tonnes), Hungary (714K tonnes), Lithuania (675K tonnes), Russia (647K tonnes), Romania (542K tonnes), Latvia (501K tonnes) and Poland (410K tonnes) took a little share of total exports.

In value terms, Canada ($4.7B) remains the most significant rape and colza seed supplier worldwide, comprising 42% of global supplies. The second position in the ranking was occupied by Ukraine ($1B), with a 9.1% share of total exports. It was followed by the Netherlands, with a 7.9% share.

Source: IndexBox Platform

seed

Global Rape and Colza Seed Exports Surge Owing to Rising Supplies from Canada and the EU

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘World – Rape Or Colza Seed – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

In 2020, global exports of rape and colza seeds jumped by +23% y-o-y to 24M tonnes, reaching $10.7B in value terms. Canada holds a leading position in global exports, accounting for nearly half of its total volume. Last year, Canada boosted its rape and colza seed exports by +42% y-o-y., while Belgium, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Latvia, Poland and Romania also saw strong growth regarding the volume of supplies abroad. In 2020, the average rape and colza seed export price remained unchanged compared to those of 2019. 

Global Rape and Colza Seed Exports

In 2020, the amount of rape or colza seed exported worldwide skyrocketed to 24M tonnes, picking up by +23% compared with 2019. In value terms, rape and colza seed exports soared by +24.2% y-o-y to $10.7B (IndexBox estimates) in 2020.

In 2020, Canada (12M tonnes) was the main exporter of rape or colza seed, achieving 49% of total exports. Ukraine (2.4M tonnes) occupied the second position in the ranking, followed by the Netherlands (2.1M tonnes) and Australia (1.7M tonnes). All these countries together took approx. 26% share of total exports. The following exporters – Hungary (810K tonnes), Lithuania (675K tonnes), France (593K tonnes), Romania (555K tonnes), Latvia (501K tonnes), Belgium (492K tonnes) and Poland (407K tonnes) – together made up 17% of total exports.

Exports from Canada increased at an average annual rate of +42.5% in 2020. At the same time, Belgium, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Latvia, Poland and Romania also recorded significant increases in their rape or colza seed exports. By contrast, Hungary, France and Ukraine illustrated a downward trend over the same period.

In value terms, Canada ($4.7B) remains the largest rape and colza seed supplier worldwide, comprising 44% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by Ukraine ($1B), with a 9.4% share of global exports. It was followed by the Netherlands, with an 8.5% share.

The average rape and colza seed export price stood at $450 per tonne in 2020, remaining constant against the previous year. Prices varied noticeably by the country of origin; the country with the highest price was France, while Canada was amongst the lowest. In 2020, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Belgium, while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Platform

rapeseed oil

Rapeseed Oil Market in Asia-Pacific Reached $19B, Boosted By Rising Demand In China and India

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘Asia-Pacific – Rapeseed Oil – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

The revenue of the rapeseed oil market in Asia-Pacific amounted to $19.1B in 2018, rising by 6.2% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers’ margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +4.6% from 2007 to 2018; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. Over the period under review, the rapeseed oil market reached its peak figure level in 2018 and is expected to retain its growth in the immediate term.

Consumption By Country

China (7.5M tonnes) remains the largest rapeseed oil-consuming country in Asia-Pacific, accounting for 59% of total volume. Moreover, rapeseed oil consumption in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, India (2.8M tonnes), threefold. The third position in this ranking was occupied by Japan (1.2M tonnes), with a 9.3% share.

From 2007 to 2018, the average annual growth rate of volume in China amounted to +4.3%. In other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: India (+1.6% per year) and Japan (+1.8% per year).

In value terms, China ($9.4B), India ($5.8B) and Japan ($2.5B) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2018, with a combined 93% share of the total market. Pakistan and Australia lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 4.4%.

The countries with the highest levels of rapeseed oil per capita consumption in 2018 were Australia (16,769 kg per 1000 persons), Japan (9,202 kg per 1000 persons) and China (5,144 kg per 1000 persons).

Market Forecast to 2030

Driven by increasing demand for rapeseed oil in Asia-Pacific, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next decade. Market performance is forecast to decelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +2.4% for the period from 2018 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 17M tonnes by the end of 2030.

Production in Asia-Pacific

In 2018, the amount of rapeseed oil produced in Asia-Pacific totaled 11M tonnes, jumping by 3.2% against the previous year. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.9% over the period from 2007 to 2018; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years.

Production By Country

China (6.6M tonnes) constituted the country with the largest volume of rapeseed oil production, accounting for 59% of total volume. Moreover, rapeseed oil production in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, India (2.6M tonnes), threefold. The third position in this ranking was occupied by Japan (1.2M tonnes), with a 10% share.

In China, rapeseed oil production increased at an average annual rate of +3.9% over the period from 2007-2018. The remaining producing countries recorded the following average annual rates of production growth: India (+1.0% per year) and Japan (+1.9% per year).

Exports in Asia-Pacific

In 2018, the amount of rapeseed oil exported in Asia-Pacific totaled 267K tonnes, going up by 4.7% against the previous year. The total exports indicated temperate growth from 2007 to 2018: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.8% over the last eleven years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2018 figures, rapeseed oil exports increased by +20.2% against 2016 indices. In value terms, rapeseed oil exports totaled $282M (IndexBox estimates) in 2018.

Exports by Country

Australia represented the major exporter of rapeseed oil exported in Asia-Pacific, with the volume of exports accounting for 167K tonnes, which was approx. 63% of total exports in 2018. It was distantly followed by Malaysia (71K tonnes), constituting a 27% share of total exports. Singapore (10,498 tonnes) and  China (5,643 tonnes) took small shares of total exports.

Australia was also the fastest-growing in terms of the rapeseed oil exports, with a CAGR of +8.8% from 2007 to 2018. Malaysia experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. Singapore (-5.6%) and China (-10.4%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. From 2007 to 2018, the share of Australia increased by +38% percentage points, while Singapore (-3.5 p.p.), and China (-4.9 p.p.) saw their share reduced. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Australia ($161M), Malaysia ($81M) and Singapore ($13M) were the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2018, with a combined 91% share of total exports.

Export Prices by Country

In 2018, average rapeseed oil export price in Asia-Pacific amounted to $1,054 per tonne, rising by 5.1% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export prices for rapeseed oil attained their peak figure at $1,321 per tonne in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2018, export price stood at somewhat lower figures.

Average prices varied somewhat amongst the major exporting countries. In 2018, major exporting countries recorded the following prices: in Singapore ($1,249 per tonne) and China ($1,212 per tonne), while Australia ($964 per tonne) and China, Hong Kong SAR ($1,021 per tonne) were amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Singapore, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports in Asia-Pacific

In 2018, approx. 1.6M tonnes of rapeseed oil were imported in Asia-Pacific; surging by 15% against the previous year. Overall, rapeseed oil imports continue to indicate a prominent increase. Over the period under review, rapeseed oil imports reached their maximum at 1.8M tonnes in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2018, imports failed to regain their momentum. In value terms, rapeseed oil imports totaled $1.3B (IndexBox estimates) in 2018.

Imports by Country

China represented the major importer of rapeseed oil imported in Asia-Pacific, with the volume of imports amounting to 817K tonnes, which was approx. 52% of total imports in 2018. India (221K tonnes) held a 14% share (based on tonnes) of total imports, which put it in second place, followed by South Korea (10%), China, Hong Kong SAR (5.4%) and Malaysia (5%). The following importers – New Zealand (63K tonnes) and the Philippines (30K tonnes) – together made up 6% of total imports.

Imports into China increased at an average annual rate of +7.2% from 2007 to 2018. At the same time, the Philippines (+20.3%), India (+17.9%), South Korea (+13.2%), China, Hong Kong SAR (+12.1%), New Zealand (+8.3%) and Malaysia (+7.2%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, the Philippines emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in Asia-Pacific, with a CAGR of +20.3% from 2007-2018.

In value terms, China ($680M) constitutes the largest market for imported rapeseed oil in Asia-Pacific, comprising 50% of total rapeseed oil imports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by India ($178M), with a 13% share of total imports. It was followed by South Korea, with a 10% share.

Import Prices by Country

The rapeseed oil import price in Asia-Pacific stood at $862 per tonne in 2018, stabilizing at the previous year. In general, the rapeseed oil import price continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern.

Average prices varied somewhat amongst the major importing countries. In 2018, major importing countries recorded the following prices: in the Philippines ($1,117 per tonne) and New Zealand ($998 per tonne), while China, Hong Kong SAR ($798 per tonne) and India ($805 per tonne) were amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Malaysia, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform