Changing Consumption Patterns and Sustainability Issues Hamper EU Meat Market

February 5th, 2022 IndexBox Leave a comment

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘EU – Meat and Poultry – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights‘. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

The market for meat and poultry in the EU is forecast to decrease at an average yearly rate of -0.4% in the upcoming decade. The drop in consumption is mainly driven by changes in consumer habits to diminish meat in their diet and decreased meat and poultry production to promote sustainability. Demand for beef and pork is expected to fall, while for poultry and sheep, it will increase. In these conditions, alternative proteins will not compete with animal-based meats due to their high costs. Meat and poultry exports to EU countries will decline primarily due to lower demand from Asia.

Key Trends and Insights

Based on the EU Agricultural Outlook 2021-31, IndexBox estimates that the EU meat and poultry market will stagnate in the near future. While global meat consumption is projected to grow at an average annual rate of +1.4% thanks to rising incomes in developing countries, the EU per capita meat consumption is forecast to decline slightly from 68kg in 2022 to 67.5kg per person in 2025.

Shifts in consumption patterns towards lower beef and pork intake constitute the principal factor shaping market stagnation. Even rising demand for poultry and sheep meat will be insufficient to offset that. To struggle with climate change, cattle herds are to be cut, and this could limit market growth from the supply side because the EU market is buoyed by domestic production.

Consumers are paying more attention to production process sustainability, especially animal welfare and environmental footprint; therefore, the organic meat segment is growing. As for meat substitutes, lab meat is not expected to become a competitor to animal-based meat because of low consumer acceptance and the high production cost. Plant-based meat alternatives held a market share of around 1% of total meat sales in 2020 and will not significantly expand in the next five years.

Compared with the 2019-2021 average, beef production in 2022 is forecast to decline by -1.4% to 6.8M tonnes due to herds reducing by -3.3% to 30.7M heads. Pork production will decrease by -1% to 23.5M tonnes, while chicken meat production will increase by +0.6% to 13.7M tonnes. In 2022, sheep meat production will slightly drop by -0.5% to 637K tonnes, but from 2023, it will rise steadily, reaching 648K tonnes by 2025.

By 2031, the market share for EU exports in global trade will decline from 20% to 17% due to decreasing pig meat exports to Asia as China aims to restore its domestic herds by 2026 and thus require fewer imports. In 2020, 16M tonnes of meat and poultry were exported, worth $46.4B.

Meat and Poultry Exports in the EU in 2020

The amount of meat and poultry exported in the EU totalled 16M tonnes in 2020, remaining constant against the previous year. In value terms, meat and poultry exports were estimated at $46.4B.

The most significant shipments were from the Netherlands (3M tonnes), Spain (2.6M tonnes), Germany (2.4M tonnes) and Poland (2.2M tonnes), together resulting in 63% of the total volume. It was distantly followed by Belgium (1.4M tonnes), Denmark (1.3M tonnes) and France (1M tonnes), together with generating a 22% share of total exports.

In value terms, the largest meat and poultry supplying countries in the EU were the Netherlands ($8.7B), Spain ($8B) and Germany ($7B), with a combined 51% share of total exports.

The meat and poultry export price in the EU stood at $2,839 per tonne in 2020, remaining relatively unchanged against the previous year. Average prices varied somewhat amongst the major exporting countries. Major exporters recorded the following prices: in Spain ($3,077 per tonne) and the Netherlands ($2,909 per tonne), while Poland ($2,282 per tonne) and Belgium ($2,286 per tonne) were amongst the lowest. In 2020, the Netherlands attained the most notable price growth rate, while the other leaders experienced more modest increases.

Source: IndexBox Platform

Archives, Global Trade Daily, News

While the European Meat and Poultry Market is Hampered by Avian Influenza, British Producers Struggle with Brexit Shocks

March 27th, 2021 IndexBox Leave a comment

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘EU – Meat And Poultry – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends, and Insights.’ Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

The European meat and poultry market remains relatively resilient against the pandemic but suffers from a pathogenic avian influenza outbreak. Brexit hampers severely British meat exports to the EU. The new green agenda forces livestock breeders and meat producers to reduce emissions. Should this trend strengthen, the alternative protein market may emerge against the slower growth of the meat industry.

Key Trends and Insights

The European market was not damaged dramatically by the pandemic. After lockdowns in April 2020, it recovered rapidly and returned to its seasonal trend.

According to the latest USDA report, the EU meat production in 2020 reduced slightly due to the outbreak of Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI).

The EU is considering the possibility of providing subsidies to farms in 2021-2027 for implementing measures to reduce greenhouse emissions from livestock, such as the use of feed additives to reduce the amount of methane emitted by animals.

After Brexit, the UK meat exporters face supply delays. They suffer losses as they cannot export chilled minced red meat, chilled meat preparations, such as raw sausages, minced meat, poultry mechanically-separated meat. The British Meat Processors Association (BMPA) continues negotiations with the European Union to create an export health safety certificate for these products so they could be imported into the EU.

The alternative protein production is steadily increasing. According to the latest data by Good Food Institute, in 2020, venture capital funds invested $1.5B in the global alternative protein industry. Since meat production is carbon-intensive, its long-term growth may be hampered by the new green agenda while the market for alternative proteins emerges.

Consumption by Country

The countries with the highest volumes of meat and poultry consumption in 2019 were Germany (7.8M tonnes), France (5.6M tonnes), and Spain (5.4M tonnes), with a combined 41% share of total consumption. These countries were followed by Italy, the UK, Poland, the Netherlands, Romania, Portugal, Denmark, Belgium, Hungary, and Austria, which together accounted for a further 47% (IndexBox estimates).

From 2012 to 2019, the biggest increases were in Romania, while meat and poultry consumption for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest meat and poultry markets in the European Union were Germany ($24.4B), France ($19.2B), and Italy ($15.3B), together comprising 44% of the total market.

The countries with the highest levels of meat and poultry per capita consumption in 2019 were Denmark (174 kg per person), Spain (114 kg per person), and Portugal (103 kg per person).

From 2012 to 2019, the most notable growth rate in terms of meat and poultry per capita consumption, amongst the main consuming countries, was attained by Romania, while meat and poultry per capita consumption for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

EU Meat and Poultry Exports

In 2019, exports of meat and poultry in the European Union expanded to 16M tonnes, growing by 1.9% against 2018 figures. In value terms, meat and poultry exports rose to $47.7B (IndexBox estimates).

The Netherlands (2.6M tonnes), Germany (2.5M tonnes), Spain (2.2M tonnes), and Poland (2M tonnes) represented roughly 58% of total exports of meat and poultry in 2019.

From 2012 to 2019, the biggest increases were in Poland, while shipments for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the Netherlands ($8.1B), Germany ($7.5B), and Spain ($6.6B) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2019, with a combined 46% share of total exports.

In 2019, the meat and poultry export price in the European Union amounted to $2,948 per tonne, remaining stable against the previous year.

Average prices varied somewhat amongst the major exporting countries. In 2019, major exporting countries recorded the following prices: in the Netherlands ($3,098 per tonne) and Spain ($3,033 per tonne), while Belgium ($2,421 per tonne) and the UK ($2,510 per tonne) were amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2019, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Spain, while the other leaders experienced a decline in the export price figures.

Production in the EU

In 2019, the amount of meat and poultry produced in the European Union stood at 49M tonnes, remaining stable against 2018. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.1% from 2012 to 2019; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being observed in certain years.

The countries with the highest volumes of meat and poultry production in 2019 were Germany (8.2M tonnes), Spain (7.2M tonnes), and France (5.6M tonnes), with a combined 43% share of total production. These countries were followed by Poland, the UK, Italy, the Netherlands, Denmark, Belgium, Ireland, Romania, Hungary, and Austria, which accounted for a further 49%.

From 2012 to 2019, the most notable growth rate in terms of meat and poultry production, amongst the leading producing countries, was attained by Poland, while meat and poultry production for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Producing Animals and Yield in the EU

In 2019, the number of animals slaughtered for meat and poultry production in the European Union amounted to 8.3B heads, approximately mirroring 2018 figures. This number increased at an average annual rate of +1.8% from 2012 to 2019; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period.

The average meat and poultry yield totaled 5,902 kg per 1000 heads in 2019, therefore, remained relatively stable against the previous year’s figure. In general, the yield, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform

Archives, Global Trade Daily, Imports/Exports

Global Canned Meat Market Grows For the Fourth Consecutive Year

June 25th, 2020 IndexBox Leave a comment

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘World – Canned Meat – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends And Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

In 2019, the global canned meat market increased by 2.9% to $245.5B, rising for the fourth year in a row after two years of decline. The market value increased at an average annual rate of +3.2% over the period from 2007 to 2019; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2008 with an increase of 13% against the previous year. Global consumption peaked in 2019 and is likely to see steady growth in the immediate term.

Consumption By Country

China (10M tonnes) constituted the country with the largest volume of canned meat consumption, comprising approx. 18% of total volume. Moreover, canned meat consumption in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, India (3.8M tonnes), threefold. The third position in this ranking was occupied by Russia (2.1M tonnes), with a 3.6% share.

In China, canned meat consumption increased at an average annual rate of +1.1% over the period from 2007-2019. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: India (+2.7% per year) and Russia (+1.7% per year).

In value terms, China ($45.8B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was occupied by India ($16.7B). It was followed by Japan.

The countries with the highest levels of canned meat per capita consumption in 2019 were the UK (18 kg per person), Japan (16 kg per person) and Germany (15 kg per person).

Market Forecast 2019-2030

Driven by increasing demand for canned meat worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next decade. Market performance is forecast to decelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +0.2% for the period from 2019 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 58M tonnes by the end of 2030.

Production 2007-2019

For the fifth consecutive year, the global market recorded growth in production of canned meat, which increased by 1.6% to 57M tonnes in 2019. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.8% over the period from 2007 to 2019; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations being observed in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2016 with an increase of 3.3% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global production hit record highs in 2019 and is likely to see gradual growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, canned meat production rose modestly to $1,808.7B in 2019 estimated in export prices. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +3.9% from 2007 to 2019; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period.

Production By Country

China (11M tonnes) remains the largest canned meat producing country worldwide, comprising approx. 19% of total volume. Moreover, canned meat production in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, India (3.8M tonnes), threefold. Russia (2.1M tonnes) ranked third in terms of total production with a 3.6% share.

From 2007 to 2019, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume in China totaled +1.0%. The remaining producing countries recorded the following average annual rates of production growth: India (+2.7% per year) and Russia (+1.8% per year).

Exports 2007-2019

In 2019, approx. 3.9M tonnes of canned meat were exported worldwide; standing approx. at the year before. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.7% over the period from 2007 to 2019; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2011 when exports increased by 8.9% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global exports hit record highs in 2019 and are expected to retain growth in years to come.

In value terms, canned meat exports rose modestly to $16.9B (IndexBox estimates) in 2019. The total export value increased at an average annual rate of +3.9% from 2007 to 2019; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period.

Exports by Country

Thailand (632K tonnes), China (432K tonnes), Germany (358K tonnes), Poland (275K tonnes), the U.S. (272K tonnes), the Netherlands (236K tonnes), Brazil (217K tonnes), Belgium (149K tonnes), Ireland (145K tonnes), Denmark (144K tonnes) and France (139K tonnes) represented roughly 76% of total exports of canned meat in 2019. Italy (78K tonnes) held a relatively small share of total exports.

From 2007 to 2019, the biggest increases were in Poland, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Thailand ($2.9B), China ($1.9B) and Germany ($1.7B) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2019, together accounting for 38% of global exports. These countries were followed by the U.S., Poland, the Netherlands, Brazil, Ireland, Belgium, France, Denmark and Italy, which together accounted for a further 42%.

Export Prices by Country

In 2019, the average canned meat export price amounted to $4,278 per tonne, therefore, remained relatively stable against the previous year. Over the period from 2007 to 2019, it increased at an average annual rate of +1.2%. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2008 when the average export price increased by 12% year-to-year. Global export price peaked at $4,550 per tonne in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2019, export prices remained at a lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably by the country of origin; the country with the highest price was Ireland ($5,652 per tonne), while Poland ($3,607 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2019, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by China, while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports 2007-2019

In 2019, purchases abroad of canned meat decreased by -0.4% to 3.8M tonnes for the first time since 2015, thus ending a three-year rising trend. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.6% over the period from 2007 to 2019; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2011 with an increase of 12% y-o-y. Over the period under review, global imports hit record highs at 3.8M tonnes in 2018, and then dropped in the following year.

In value terms, canned meat imports declined to $16.3B (IndexBox estimates) in 2019. The total import value increased at an average annual rate of +3.6% over the period from 2007 to 2019; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period.

Imports by Country

Japan (723K tonnes) and the UK (584K tonnes) represented roughly 34% of total imports of canned meat in 2019. Germany (235K tonnes) occupied the next position in the ranking, followed by the Netherlands (192K tonnes) and China, Hong Kong SAR (181K tonnes). All these countries together held near 16% share of total imports. The following importers – France (153K tonnes), the U.S. (146K tonnes), Canada (128K tonnes), Belgium (104K tonnes), Ireland (102K tonnes), Denmark (77K tonnes) and Sweden (57K tonnes) – together made up 20% of total imports.

From 2007 to 2019, the biggest increases were in China, Hong Kong SAR, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Japan ($3.2B), the UK ($2.5B) and Germany ($1.1B) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2019, with a combined 41% share of global imports. The U.S., the Netherlands, France, Canada, China, Hong Kong SAR, Belgium, Ireland, Denmark and Sweden lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 32%.

In terms of the main importing countries, China, Hong Kong SAR recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices by Country

The average canned meat import price stood at $4,294 per tonne in 2019, flattening at the previous year. Over the period from 2007 to 2019, it increased at an average annual rate of +1.0%. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2008 when the average import price increased by 12% y-o-y. Over the period under review, average import prices attained the peak figure at $4,656 per tonne in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2019, import prices failed to regain the momentum.

Prices varied noticeably by the country of destination; the country with the highest price was the U.S. ($6,862 per tonne), while China, Hong Kong SAR ($3,121 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2019, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the U.S., while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.