The winter 2026 edition of the Maersk Global Market Update, published by Hellenic Shipping News, explores key events that could influence global supply chains in the year ahead.
Read also: Maersk Begins Gradual Return to Red Sea Route After Months of Disruption
Trans-Suez Return
The logistics industry is discussing a return to using the Red Sea and Suez Canal as a gateway between Asia and Europe. Maersk’s MECL service successfully transited the area on December 19, 2025, but a full return remains at the planning stage and depends on continued safe conditions. “The transition back to trans-Suez shipping will indeed be a significant one for the entire industry and complete immunity to disruption is unlikely, however the experience and insights gained from previous events will enable us to mitigate some of the disruption and safeguard our customers supply chains,” said Johan Sigsgaard, Chief Product Officer for Ocean at Maersk. He added that the shift will add volatility, and the scale of the impact will depend on the transition speed.
Maersk compares the potential impact to the Covid-19 pandemic’s effect on supply chains. A risk is that the first vessels via the Suez Canal and the final vessels via the Cape of Good Hope could arrive simultaneously in Europe, potentially delivering multiple months of inventory at once and driving up the inventory-to-sales ratio. Euro Area inventories are already higher than average relative to demand, making overstocking a distinct possibility. Maersk is modeling scenarios and collaborating with customers to determine strategies to eliminate overstocking.
Potential Congestion in Europe
Port utilization data shows key European terminals like Rotterdam, Hamburg, and Algeciras were operating around 80% efficiency in summer 2025, with high activity since. While not yet critical, a simultaneous influx of vessels from both routes could push utilization into a high-risk zone above 90%. “Congested ports should be considered as part of a business scenario planning – allowing for longer lead times, securing alternative transport routes, and coordinating closely with carriers to adjust delivery windows,” the report states. Karsten Kildahl, Chief Commercial Officer at Maersk, said, “a sharp focus on avoiding unintended build-up of inventory will be a priority for many customers ahead of a full trans-Suez return.”
Maersk cites the flexibility of its Gemini network and control over owned vessels and terminals as factors that will enable faster decision-making and operational agility during the transition.
De Minimis Exemption in Europe to End in 2026
The EU will eliminate the de minimis tax exemption for low-value imports on July 1, 2026, charging a flat fee of 3 EUR per item type. This follows a similar move in the US, where an $800 exemption was removed in August 2025. Lars Karlsson, Maersk Global Head of Trade and Customs Consulting, said, “What we observed in the US after the de minimis exemption was removed back in the summer was more e-commerce companies storing inventory in North America to get closer to the end consumer and avoid tariffs. We expect more of the same to happen in Europe… which will of course cause ripple effects on inventory levels and indeed trade flows.” He noted the EU faces a challenge implementing complicated customs procedures across all member states by the July deadline.
More to Look Out For in 2026
Other policy changes in 2026 include the EU and US working on strengthening rules of origin in their trade agreement to ensure benefits “accrue predominantly” to them. A similar mechanism is found in US trade agreements with Cambodia and Malaysia and is expected in pending deals with Thailand, Vietnam, and Korea. Additionally, the trade agreement between the US, Mexico, and Canada is up for review and adjustment in 2026.
