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U.S. Sanitary Paper Product Market – Chinese Imports Rose 15% to $677M in 2018, Despite a Trade War

sanitary paper

U.S. Sanitary Paper Product Market – Chinese Imports Rose 15% to $677M in 2018, Despite a Trade War

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘U.S. Sanitary Paper Product Market. Analysis And Forecast to 2025’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

In 2018, the revenue of the sanitary paper product market in the U.S. amounted to $12B. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers’ margins, which will be included in the final consumer price).

Overall, sanitary paper product consumption continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 when the market value increased by 2.3% y-o-y. Over the period under review, the sanitary paper product market attained its maximum level at $12.2B in 2015; however, from 2016 to 2018, consumption remained at a lower figure.

Sanitary Paper  Production in the U.S.

In value terms, sanitary paper production (disposable diapers and similar disposable products, and sanitary tissue) totaled $11.1B in 2018.

Exports from the U.S.

In 2018, the amount of sanitary paper product exported from the U.S. amounted to 128K tonnes, going up by 5.6% against the previous year. Over the period under review, sanitary paper product exports, however, continue to indicate a mild reduction. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2014 with an increase of 8.7% against the previous year. In that year, sanitary paper product exports reached their peak of 153K tonnes. From 2015 to 2018, the growth of sanitary paper product exports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, sanitary paper product exports amounted to $373M (IndexBox estimates) in 2018. In general, sanitary paper product exports, however, continue to indicate a measured decrease. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2018 with an increase of 8.4% year-to-year. Exports peaked at $443M in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2018, exports remained at a lower figure.

Exports by Country

Japan (17K tonnes), Belgium (16K tonnes) and the Dominican Republic (10K tonnes) were the main destinations of sanitary paper product exports from the U.S., with a combined 34% share of total exports.

From 2013 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of exports, amongst the main countries of destination, was attained by Belgium (+77.9% per year), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Japan ($50M), Belgium ($38M) and the Dominican Republic ($29M) appeared to be the largest markets for sanitary paper product exported from the U.S. worldwide, with a combined 31% share of total exports.

Belgium recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to exports, among the main countries of destination over the last five years, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices by Country

In 2018, the average sanitary paper product export price amounted to $2,904 per tonne, going up by 2.7% against the previous year. Overall, the sanitary paper product export price, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 when the average export price increased by 2.7% year-to-year. The export price peaked at $2,943 per tonne in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2018, export prices failed to regain their momentum.

There were significant differences in the average prices for the major foreign markets. In 2018, the country with the highest price was South Korea ($3,747 per tonne), while the average price for exports to Belgium ($2,352 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was recorded for supplies to Guatemala, while the prices for the other major destinations experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports into the U.S.

In 2018, the sanitary paper product imports into the U.S. stood at 451K tonnes, going up by 10% against the previous year. In general, the total imports indicated a strong expansion from 2013 to 2018: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +10.6% over the last five-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2018 figures, sanitary paper product imports increased by +65.6% against 2013 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 with an increase of 15% y-o-y. Over the period under review, sanitary paper product imports attained their peak figure in 2018 and are expected to retain its growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, sanitary paper product imports amounted to $920M (IndexBox estimates) in 2018. The total import value increased at an average annual rate of +10.0% from 2013 to 2018; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded over the period under review. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2014 when imports increased by 18% against the previous year. Imports peaked in 2018 and are expected to retain its growth in the immediate term.

Imports by Country

In 2018, China (367K tonnes) constituted the largest sanitary paper product supplier to the U.S., with a 82% share of total imports. Moreover, sanitary paper product imports from China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest supplier, Indonesia (17K tonnes), more than tenfold.

From 2013 to 2018, the average annual growth rate of volume from China amounted to +10.3%.

In value terms, China ($677M) constituted the largest supplier of sanitary paper product to the U.S., comprising 74% of total sanitary paper product imports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by Indonesia ($25M), with a 2.7% share of total imports.

From 2013 to 2018, the average annual growth rate of value from China stood at +11.3%.

Import Prices by Country

In 2018, the average sanitary paper product import price amounted to $2,041 per tonne, surging by 4.7% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the sanitary paper product import price, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2018 an increase of 4.7% y-o-y. The import price peaked at $2,171 per tonne in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2018, import prices failed to regain their momentum.

Average prices varied somewhat amongst the major supplying countries. In 2018, the country with the highest price was China ($1,842 per tonne), while the price for Indonesia totaled $1,454 per tonne.

From 2013 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by China.

Companies Mentioned in the Report

Johnson & Johnson, Georgia-Pacific, Marcal Manufacturing, Hoffmaster Group, Professional Disposables, Cascades Tissue Group – North Carolina, Attends Healthcare Products, Principle Business Enterprises, Royal Paper Converting, First Quality Baby Products, Orchids Paper Products Company, U.S. Alliance Paper, Associated Hygienic Products, Allied West Paper Corp., Cascades Tissue Group – Pennsylvania, Playtex Products, Leaf River Cellulose, Rose’s Southwest Papers, Playtex Manufacturing, Tambrands Sales Corp., The Procter & Gamble Paper Products Company, The Tranzonic Companies, Tz Acquisition Corp., First Quality Products, Marcal Paper Mills, Soundview Paper Mills, Soundview Paper Holdings, Omganics

Source: IndexBox AI Platform

arms trade

GLOBAL ARMS TRADE HIGHEST SINCE END OF COLD WAR

Hotter Since the Cold War

For obvious reasons, trade in arms is not governed by the same global trade rules as selling a doggy snood on Etsy. The rules of engagement are different and global flows of arms tell stories not of lighthearted fashion trends but of the enduring reality of global conflicts, the escalating and diffusing of tensions – the arming and disarming that reflects the current and projected state of international security.

Governments, formal military alliances and international organizations procure and sell arms for defense, for peacekeeping operations, and to engage in conflict. Conflicts today routinely intertwine regular military forces, militias and armed civilians. After a decade of steady increase, the volume of arms trade by 2012 had reached levels not seen since the end of the Cold War.

Up in Arms

2018 saw the continuation of armed conflicts throughout the Middle East and North Africa in Egypt, Iraq, Libya, Syria and Yemen. In sub-Saharan Africa, armed conflict raged in eleven countries including Nigeria, Somalia, South Sudan, the Central African Republic and the Democratic Republic of Congo. Afghanistan remains among the world’s most lethal states after decades of fighting.

India and Pakistan, Myanmar and other countries in Southeast Asia experienced armed conflict throughout the year and Russia’s annexation of Crimea from Ukraine remains unresolved. Colombia’s peace process hit rough patches, armed gangs threaten security in Central America, and Venezuela remains turbulent. This list is long, incomplete, and in flux, fueling demand for arms in conflict areas. At the same time, some sixty multilateral peace operations were active in 2018.

For fifty years, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) has gathered original data on world military expenditure and international arms transfers, analyzing trends in conflict, arms production and arms controls. In all, SIPRI estimates global military expenditure at $1.8 trillion and puts the total value of the global arms trade in 2017 at some $95 billion with weapons exports valued around $27.6 billion.

Arms transfers between 2009 and 2013 were 23 percent higher than in the period between 2004 and 2008. In the period 2014-2018, arms transfers reached the highest level since the end of the Cold War.

Global Weapons Exports

Who Sells and Who Buys in the War Economy

Official reporting is scant. Government to government transfers occur through varying types of complex and opaque arrangements. Pinning down numbers is also complicated by the existence of covert trade in arms. Within the realm of what SIPRI can track, the market is dominated jointly by the United States and Russia. According to SIPRI’s numbers, 202 states, 48 non-state armed groups, and five international organizations received arms shipments sometime in the last five years.

The United States, Russia, France, Germany and China are the five largest exporters of major arms, accounting for 75 percent of all arms exports, but SIPRI has identified as many as 67 countries that exported major arms in the last five years. The United States and Russia together comprise 57 percent of the total. The five largest importers were Saudi Arabia, India, Egypt, Australia and Algeria, together accounting for 35 percent of total arms imports between 2014 and 2018. The political alignments can be seen by matching the buyers and sellers.

Buyers and Sellers of Arms

Notably, advanced combat aircraft accounted for more than half of all U.S. major arms exports over the last five years and will remain the main driver with nearly 900 orders in the pipeline. Guided missiles accounted for 19 percent of U.S. major arms exports and the United States is the primary exporter of ballistic missile defense systems.

Russia’s exports declined over the last five years as sales to India and Venezuela dropped by 42 percent and 96 percent respectively. Over the same period, Russia’s sales to the Middle East increased 19 percent, mainly to Egypt and Iraq. SIPRI reports that China supplies relatively small volumes of major arms spread across 53 countries, up from 41 five years ago. At the same time, China is the world’s sixth largest importer of arms. Russia supplied 70 percent of China’s arms imports over the last five years.

Under Control

Seven of the world’s largest defense companies by arms sales are American. They include Lockheed Martin with international arms sales worth $40.8 billion in 2016, and Boeing at a distant second with $29.5 billion in sales. Raytheon, Northrop Grumman and General Dynamics come in the next tier with sales between $19 and $23 billion. Among the top 100 firms, U.S. companies accounted for 58 percent of total global arms sales in 2016.

When it comes to production and trade in military supplies, the WTO steps out of the way. Article XXI of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade provides a national security exemption:

“…nothing in this Agreement shall be construed…to prevent any contracting party from taking any action which it considers necessary for the protection of essential national security interests…relating to the traffic in arms, ammunition and implements of war and to such traffic in other goods and materials as is carried on directly or indirectly for the purpose of supplying a military establishment.”

Trade in conventional arms and dual-use goods and technologies (those with both military and commercial applications) is regulated through other policies that include government defense procurement regulations, national export control licensing regimes and embargoes. In the United States, under the Arms Export Control Act and the International Traffic in Arms Regulations, exports of defense materials and services by U.S. firms are tightly controlled through licensing approvals.

Wassenaar Arrangement

Forty-two member countries maintain national export controls in conformance with items included on the 1996 Wassenaar Arrangement’s two control lists. As part of the Arrangement, members also agree to voluntarily and confidentially exchange information about transfers to non-Wassenaar countries of conventional weapons and dual-use goods and technologies on these lists. Weapon categories to be reported include armored combat vehicles, large-caliber artillery, military aircraft, missile systems, small arms and light weapons.

Wassenaar members are encouraged to use non-binding criteria to help determine whether potential arms exports could lead to “destabilizing accumulations,” and to guide their disposal of surplus military equipment. Wassenaar and other efforts to restrain arms transfers through international treaties and multilateral embargoes suffer, however, from low levels of national government engagement by important producers and importers of weapons.

Military-Industrial Complex-ity

Governments seek to procure technologically advanced weaponry for their own national security. At the same time, they must prevent the sale of such weapons to others who would use them against the state or who would deploy them to fuel conflicts that run counter to national security interests.

In balancing these objectives, national export control regimes have struggled against the pace of technological innovation and the proliferation of technologies that have dual commercial and military applications. The defense industry itself is defined by this paradox – it is propelled forward by government protected from competition but also shaped by market forces that induce innovation, specialization and consolidation.

As the costs and complexity of developing and manufacturing advanced weapons increase, firms specialize in facets of production. Interdependence among firms has deepened as global supply chains tend to be anchored by a handful of large tier-one firms. The industry has consolidated, including by merging across borders. In circular fashion, these developments make it harder for governments to regulate foreign investment and maintain appropriate controls on arms transfers.

Adding the complexity of this unique industry, firms that enjoy a special status under trade rules for military production also have commercial products and sales for which the normal rules apply. It’s a heavy invisible hand in the market for arms. Global trade rules need not apply.

____________________________________________________________

Andrea Durkin is the Editor-in-Chief of TradeVistas and Founder of Sparkplug, LLC. Ms. Durkin previously served as a U.S. Government trade negotiator and has proudly taught international trade policy and negotiations for the last fourteen years as an Adjunct Professor at Georgetown University’s Master of Science in Foreign Service program.

This article originally appeared on TradeVistas.org. Republished with permission.

palm oil market

Africa’s Palm Oil Market – Foreign Suppliers Benefit From Resilient Market Growth

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘Africa – Palm Oil – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

The palm oil market size in Africa is estimated at $8.2B in 2018, an increase of 3.7% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers’ margins, which will be included in the final consumer price).

The total market indicated a resilient expansion from 2007 to 2018: its value increased at an average annual rate of +4.6% over the last eleven years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2018 figures, palm oil consumption increased by +9.3% against 2016 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2011 when the market value increased by 24% year-to-year. Over the period under review, the palm oil market attained its peak figure level at $9.9B in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2018, consumption stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Consumption By Country in Africa

The countries with the highest volumes of palm oil consumption in 2018 were Nigeria (1.2M tonnes), Egypt (959K tonnes) and Kenya (705K tonnes), with a combined 31% share of total consumption. These countries were followed by Tanzania, Ghana, South Africa, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Djibouti, Mozambique, Uganda, Togo and Cameroon, which together accounted for a further 42%.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of palm oil consumption, amongst the main consuming countries, was attained by Djibouti, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest palm oil markets in Africa were Nigeria ($861M), Egypt ($626M) and Tanzania ($559M), with a combined 25% share of the total market. Kenya, Cameroon, Ghana, Djibouti, South Africa, Togo, Uganda, Mozambique and Democratic Republic of the Congo lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 37%.

In 2018, the highest levels of palm oil per capita consumption was registered in Djibouti (431 kg per person), followed by Togo (40 kg per person), Ghana (18 kg per person) and Kenya (14 kg per person), while the world average per capita consumption of palm oil was estimated at 7.09 kg per person.

From 2007 to 2018, the average annual growth rate of the palm oil per capita consumption in Djibouti stood at +17.6%. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of per capita consumption growth: Togo (+6.9% per year) and Ghana (+3.6% per year).

Market Forecast 2019-2025 in Africa

Driven by increasing demand for palm oil in Africa, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next seven-year period. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +3.9% for the seven-year period from 2018 to 2025, which is projected to bring the market volume to 12M tonnes by the end of 2025.

Production in Africa

The palm oil production amounted to 2.4M tonnes in 2018, approximately equating the previous year. Overall, palm oil production, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2011 when production volume increased by 3.7% y-o-y. The volume of palm oil production peaked at 2.5M tonnes in 2008; however, from 2009 to 2018, production remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, palm oil production stood at $2.1B in 2018 estimated in export prices. Over the period under review, palm oil production, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2011 when production volume increased by 9.7% year-to-year. In that year, palm oil production reached its peak level of $2.8B. From 2012 to 2018, palm oil production growth remained at a lower figure.

Production By Country in Africa

The countries with the highest volumes of palm oil production in 2018 were Nigeria (739K tonnes), Cote d’Ivoire (426K tonnes) and Democratic Republic of the Congo (410K tonnes), together accounting for 65% of total production.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of palm oil production, amongst the main producing countries, was attained by Democratic Republic of the Congo, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports in Africa

In 2018, approx. 462K tonnes of palm oil were exported in Africa; picking up by 7.6% against the previous year. Over the period under review, palm oil exports continue to indicate a prominent expansion. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2014 with an increase of 39% against the previous year. Over the period under review, palm oil exports attained their maximum in 2018 and are likely to see steady growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, palm oil exports totaled $355M (IndexBox estimates) in 2018. The total exports indicated a strong expansion from 2007 to 2018: its value increased at an average annual rate of +6.0% over the last eleven years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2018 figures, palm oil exports increased by +29.9% against 2016 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 with an increase of 33% y-o-y. Over the period under review, palm oil exports attained their peak figure in 2018 and are expected to retain its growth in the near future.

Exports by Country

In 2018, Cote d’Ivoire (200K tonnes) was the major exporter of palm oil, making up 43% of total exports. It was distantly followed by Ghana (80K tonnes), Kenya (59K tonnes) and Seychelles (45K tonnes), together creating a 40% share of total exports. South Africa (15K tonnes), Senegal (13K tonnes), Togo (9.5K tonnes) and Liberia (8.9K tonnes) followed a long way behind the leaders.

Exports from Cote d’Ivoire increased at an average annual rate of +7.6% from 2007 to 2018. At the same time, Liberia (+31.6%), Ghana (+23.8%), Senegal (+21.7%), Seychelles (+19.8%), Togo (+13.3%), Kenya (+4.9%) and South Africa (+4.2%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Liberia emerged as the fastest-growing exporter in Africa, with a CAGR of +31.6% from 2007-2018. While the share of Cote d’Ivoire (+24 p.p.), Ghana (+16 p.p.), Seychelles (+8.3 p.p.), Kenya (+5.2 p.p.), Senegal (+2.4 p.p.), Liberia (+1.8 p.p.) and Togo (+1.5 p.p.) increased significantly, the shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, the largest palm oil markets in Africa were Cote d’Ivoire ($133M), Ghana ($73M) and Kenya ($46M), together accounting for 71% of total exports. Seychelles, South Africa, Senegal, Togo and Liberia lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 22%.

Among the main exporting countries, Liberia recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to exports, over the last eleven-year period, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices by Country

In 2018, the palm oil export price in Africa amounted to $769 per tonne, jumping by 2.1% against the previous year. Overall, the palm oil export price, however, continues to indicate a slight contraction. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2008 when the export price increased by 20% year-to-year. Over the period under review, the export prices for palm oil attained their peak figure at $1,084 per tonne in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2018, export prices failed to regain their momentum.

Prices varied noticeably by the country of origin; the country with the highest price was South Africa ($1,021 per tonne), while Cote d’Ivoire ($665 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by South Africa, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports in Africa

In 2018, the palm oil imports in Africa stood at 7.1M tonnes, surging by 5.1% against the previous year. Over the period under review, palm oil imports continue to indicate a remarkable expansion. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 with an increase of 21% against the previous year. The volume of imports peaked in 2018 and are likely to see steady growth in the near future.

In value terms, palm oil imports totaled $4.8B (IndexBox estimates) in 2018. The total imports indicated a buoyant expansion from 2007 to 2018: its value increased at an average annual rate of +7.2% over the last eleven-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2018 figures, palm oil imports increased by +7.9% against 2016 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2011 when imports increased by 33% against the previous year. Over the period under review, palm oil imports attained their maximum at $5.8B in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2018, imports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Imports by Country

Egypt (968K tonnes), Kenya (764K tonnes), Tanzania (648K tonnes), Ghana (481K tonnes), South Africa (473K tonnes), Nigeria (425K tonnes), Djibouti (419K tonnes), Uganda (343K tonnes), Mozambique (342K tonnes) and Togo (320K tonnes) represented roughly 73% of total imports of palm oil in 2018. Algeria (198K tonnes) and Angola (178K tonnes) held a relatively small share of total imports.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of imports, amongst the main importing countries, was attained by Nigeria, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest palm oil importing markets in Africa were Egypt ($592M), Kenya ($505M) and Tanzania ($455M), together comprising 32% of total imports. Ghana, Djibouti, South Africa, Nigeria, Uganda, Mozambique, Togo, Angola and Algeria lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 45%.

Nigeria experienced the highest rates of growth with regard to imports, in terms of the main importing countries over the last eleven years, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices by Country

In 2018, the palm oil import price in Africa amounted to $673 per tonne, declining by -10.5% against the previous year. In general, the palm oil import price continues to indicate a mild decrease. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2008 an increase of 29% y-o-y. The level of import price peaked at $1,038 per tonne in 2011; however, from 2012 to 2018, import prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Average prices varied somewhat amongst the major importing countries. In 2018, major importing countries recorded the following prices: in Angola ($806 per tonne) and Djibouti ($746 per tonne), while Egypt ($611 per tonne) and South Africa ($627 per tonne) were amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Mozambique, while the other leaders experienced a decline in the import price figures.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform

paperboard box

U.S. Folding Paperboard Box Market – Imports from China Recorded a Dramatic Increase of 17.9% in 2018

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘U.S. Folding Paperboard Box Market. Analysis And Forecast to 2025’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

The revenue of the folding paperboard box market in the U.S. amounted to $14.4B in 2018, remaining relatively unchanged against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers’ margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Over the period under review, folding paperboard box consumption continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2016 with an increase of 2.9% y-o-y. Folding paperboard box consumption peaked in 2018 and is likely to continue its growth in the immediate term.

Folding Paperboard Box Production in the U.S.

In value terms, folding paperboard box production amounted to $14B in 2018. Overall, folding paperboard box production, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2016 when production volume increased by 3% against the previous year. Folding paperboard box production peaked in 2018 and is likely to continue its growth in the immediate term.

Exports from the U.S.

In 2018, the exports of folding paperboard box from the U.S. stood at 16K tonnes, declining by -16.7% against the previous year. Overall, folding paperboard box exports continue to indicate a noticeable deduction. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2016 when exports increased by 13% year-to-year. In that year, folding paperboard box exports attained their peak of 20K tonnes. From 2017 to 2018, the growth of folding paperboard box exports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, folding paperboard box exports totaled $42M (IndexBox estimates) in 2018. Over the period under review, folding paperboard box exports continue to indicate a moderate contraction. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2016 when exports increased by 8.2% against the previous year. In that year, folding paperboard box exports attained their peak of $51M. From 2017 to 2018, the growth of folding paperboard box exports failed to regain its momentum.

Exports by Country

The Dominican Republic (1.9K tonnes), Belgium (1.1K tonnes) and Italy (932 tonnes) were the main destinations of folding paperboard box exports from the U.S., together accounting for 25% of total exports.

From 2013 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of exports, amongst the main countries of destination, was attained by Belgium, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the Dominican Republic ($5.7M), Costa Rica ($3M) and Italy ($2.6M) were the largest markets for folding paperboard box exported from the U.S. worldwide, with a combined 27% share of total exports. These countries were followed by France, Panama, Germany, Belgium, the UK, Colombia, Nicaragua, the Netherlands and Ecuador, which together accounted for a further 34%.

Nicaragua experienced the highest growth rate of exports, in terms of the main countries of destination over the last five-year period, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices by Country

In 2018, the average folding paperboard box export price amounted to $2,724 per tonne, rising by 4.2% against the previous year. Over the period from 2013 to 2018, it increased at an average annual rate of +1.4%. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2017 an increase of 5.6% y-o-y. The export price peaked in 2018 and is expected to retain its growth in the immediate term.

There were significant differences in the average prices for the major foreign markets. In 2018, the country with the highest price was Germany ($3,297 per tonne), while the average price for exports to Ecuador ($1,188 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was recorded for supplies to Panama, while the prices for the other major destinations experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports into the U.S.

In 2018, the imports of folding paperboard box into the U.S. amounted to 161K tonnes, surging by 17% against the previous year. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +5.4% from 2013 to 2018; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 with an increase of 17% against the previous year. In that year, folding paperboard box imports reached their peak and are likely to continue its growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, folding paperboard box imports stood at $536M (IndexBox estimates) in 2018. The total import value increased at an average annual rate of +6.0% from 2013 to 2018; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations being recorded over the period under review. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2018 with an increase of 14% y-o-y. In that year, folding paperboard box imports reached their peak and are likely to continue its growth in the immediate term.

Imports by Country

In 2018, China (103K tonnes) constituted the largest supplier of folding paperboard box to the U.S., accounting for a 64% share of total imports. Moreover, folding paperboard box imports from China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest supplier, Indonesia (15K tonnes), sevenfold. The third position in this ranking was occupied by Germany (10K tonnes), with a 6.4% share.

From 2013 to 2018, the average annual growth rate of volume from China amounted to +5.1%. The remaining supplying countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: Indonesia (+11.4% per year) and Germany (+20.5% per year).

In value terms, China ($387M) constituted the largest supplier of folding paperboard box to the U.S., comprising 72% of total folding paperboard box imports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by Germany ($26M), with a 4.8% share of total imports. It was followed by Indonesia, with a 3.9% share.

From 2013 to 2018, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value from China amounted to +5.8%. The remaining supplying countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: Germany (+17.1% per year) and Indonesia (+7.2% per year).

Import Prices by Country

In 2018, the average folding paperboard box import price amounted to $3,337 per tonne, dropping by -2.2% against the previous year. Overall, the folding paperboard box import price, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 when the average import price increased by 3.2% y-o-y. The import price peaked at $3,413 per tonne in 2017, and then declined slightly in the following year.

Prices varied noticeably by the country of origin; the country with the highest price was China ($3,755 per tonne), while the price for Turkey ($1,213 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Taiwan, Chinese, while the prices for the other major suppliers experienced mixed trend patterns.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform

wool

Global Woven Woolen Fabric Market 2019 – Italy is Far Ahead of China in Export Value, but Their Volumes are Getting Closer

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘World – Woven Woolen Fabrics – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

Exports 2009-2018

In 2018, the global exports of woven woolen fabrics amounted to 90M square meters, falling by -3.8% against the previous year. In general, woolen fabric exports continue to indicate a slight decline. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2010 when exports increased by 21% y-o-y. The global exports peaked at 132M square meters in 2011; however, from 2012 to 2018, exports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, woolen fabric exports stood at $3.5B (IndexBox estimates) in 2018. In general, woolen fabric exports continue to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2011 when exports increased by 16% against the previous year. In that year, global woolen fabric exports reached their peak of $4.2B. From 2012 to 2018, the growth of global woolen fabric exports failed to regain its momentum.

Exports by Country

In 2018, Italy (30M square meters) and China (21M square meters) represented the key exporters of woven woolen fabrics across the globe, together mixing up 57% of total exports. It was distantly followed by the UK (5,267K square meters), achieving a 5.9% share of total exports. Germany (3,841K square meters), Japan (3,302K square meters), South Korea (3,249K square meters), the Czech Republic (2,641K square meters), Turkey (1,662K square meters), Denmark (1,447K square meters) and Lithuania (1,369K square meters) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2009 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of exports, amongst the main exporting countries, was attained by Lithuania, while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Italy ($1.6B) remains the largest woolen fabric supplier worldwide, comprising 44% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by China ($414M), with a 12% share of global exports. It was followed by the UK, with a 7.4% share.

In Italy, woolen fabric exports increased at an average annual rate of +1.6% over the period from 2009-2018. The remaining exporting countries recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: China (-0.0% per year) and the UK (+7.2% per year).

Export Prices by Country

The average woolen fabric export price stood at $39 per square meter in 2018, rising by 16% against the previous year. Over the period from 2009 to 2018, it increased at an average annual rate of +1.8%. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 when the average export price increased by 16% against the previous year. In that year, the average export prices for woven woolen fabrics attained their peak level and is likely to continue its growth in the immediate term.

Prices varied noticeably by the country of origin; the country with the highest price was Japan ($58 per square meter), while South Korea ($18 per square meter) was amongst the lowest.

From 2009 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Japan, while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports 2009-2018

In 2018, the amount of woven woolen fabrics imported worldwide stood at 91M square meters, going down by -3.1% against the previous year. In general, woolen fabric imports continue to indicate a mild setback. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2010 when imports increased by 9.7% year-to-year. Over the period under review, global woolen fabric imports attained their maximum at 119M square meters in 2011; however, from 2012 to 2018, imports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, woolen fabric imports stood at $3.3B (IndexBox estimates) in 2018. Overall, woolen fabric imports continue to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2011 when imports increased by 15% against the previous year. In that year, global woolen fabric imports reached their peak of $4.1B. From 2012 to 2018, the growth of global woolen fabric imports remained at a somewhat lower figure.

Imports by Country

In 2018, China (8,571K square meters), Viet Nam (7,399K square meters), Italy (4,978K square meters), Germany (4,593K square meters), Romania (4,076K square meters), Japan (3,780K square meters), Turkey (3,532K square meters), Morocco (3,115K square meters), Spain (3,056K square meters), the U.S. (3,029K square meters), the UK (2,379K square meters) and Bulgaria (2,278K square meters) were the major importers of woven woolen fabrics in the world, making up 56% of total import.

From 2009 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of imports, amongst the main importing countries, was attained by Viet Nam, while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, China ($377M), Germany ($201M) and Japan ($193M) were the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2018, together comprising 23% of global imports. These countries were followed by Viet Nam, Italy, Romania, the U.S., Turkey, Bulgaria, Spain, Morocco and the UK, which together accounted for a further 33%.

Viet Nam experienced the highest rates of growth with regard to imports, in terms of the main importing countries over the last nine years, while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices by Country

The average woolen fabric import price stood at $37 per square meter in 2018, picking up by 6.6% against the previous year. Over the period from 2009 to 2018, it increased at an average annual rate of +1.7%. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2011 an increase of 13% year-to-year. Over the period under review, the average import prices for woven woolen fabrics reached their maximum at $37 per square meter in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2018, import prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2018, the country with the highest price was Japan ($51 per square meter), while Morocco ($25 per square meter) was amongst the lowest.

From 2009 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by China, while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform

Wood Kitchenware And Tableware Market in the EU – A Ban on Single-Use Plastics Drives Demand for Wooden Products

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘EU – Tableware And Kitchenware Of Wood – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends And Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

The European parliament has voted to ban single-use plastic cutlery, cotton buds, straws and stirrers as part of a sweeping law against plastic waste that despoils beaches and pollutes oceans. The vote by MEPs paves the way for a ban on single-use plastics to come into force by 2021 in all EU member states.

Against this background, there is an increase in the consumption of wooden cutlery and tableware instead of disposable plastic ones. Growing demand is supported by both expanding domestic production and accelerated growth in imports.

Imports in the EU

In 2018, the wood kitchenware and tableware imports in the European Union amounted to 117K tonnes, surging by 3.3% against the previous year. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.2% from 2007 to 2018; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded over the period under review. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2014 with an increase of 14% against the previous year. Over the period under review, wood kitchenware and tableware imports attained their peak figure in 2018 and are expected to retain its growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, wood kitchenware and tableware imports totaled $528M (IndexBox estimates) in 2018. The total imports indicated a resilient expansion from 2007 to 2018: its value increased at an average annual rate of +1.2% over the last eleven years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2018 figures, wood kitchenware and tableware imports increased by +18.6% against 2014 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2014 when imports increased by 24% y-o-y. The level of imports peaked in 2018 and are likely to continue their growth in the near future.

Imports by Country

In 2018, Germany (26K tonnes), distantly followed by the UK (17K tonnes), France (15K tonnes), the Netherlands (14K tonnes), Italy (8.5K tonnes) and Belgium (6.8K tonnes) were the major importers of tableware and kitchenware of wood, together making up 75% of total imports. The following importers – Poland (4,740 tonnes), Sweden (3,802 tonnes), the Czech Republic (3,462 tonnes), Denmark (2,749 tonnes), Spain (2,325 tonnes) and Portugal (2,265 tonnes) – together made up 17% of total imports.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of imports, amongst the main importing countries, was attained by the Czech Republic, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest wood kitchenware and tableware importing markets in the European Union were Germany ($112M), the UK ($78M) and France ($72M), together accounting for 50% of total imports. These countries were followed by the Netherlands, Italy, Belgium, Sweden, Denmark, Poland, Spain, Portugal and the Czech Republic, which together accounted for a further 41%.

The Netherlands recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to imports, among the main importing countries over the last eleven years, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices by Country

In 2018, the wood kitchenware and tableware import price in the European Union amounted to $4,518 per tonne, picking up by 8.2% against the previous year. Over the last eleven years, it increased at an average annual rate of +2.7%. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2011 an increase of 10% y-o-y. The level of import price peaked in 2018 and is expected to retain its growth in the immediate term.

Prices varied noticeably by the country of destination; the country with the highest price was Denmark ($6,814 per tonne), while the Czech Republic ($2,322 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Spain, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports in the EU

In 2018, approx. 42K tonnes of tableware and kitchenware of wood were exported in the European Union; lowering by -5.4% against the previous year. In general, wood kitchenware and tableware exports, however, continue to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 when exports increased by 21% against the previous year. Over the period under review, wood kitchenware and tableware exports reached their peak figure at 49K tonnes in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2018, exports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, wood kitchenware and tableware exports totaled $223M (IndexBox estimates) in 2018. The total exports indicated a tangible expansion from 2007 to 2018: its value increased at an average annual rate of +0.8% over the last eleven years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2018 figures, wood kitchenware and tableware exports decreased by -6.0% against 2016 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2014 with an increase of 23% year-to-year. Over the period under review, wood kitchenware and tableware exports reached their peak figure at $238M in 2016; however, from 2017 to 2018, exports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Exports by Country

In 2018, Germany (8,014 tonnes), the Netherlands (6,656 tonnes) and Romania (5,687 tonnes) were the major exporters of tableware and kitchenware of wood in the European Union, generating 48% of total export. Poland (3,622 tonnes) held an 8.6% share (based on tonnes) of total exports, which put it in second place, followed by Italy (6.2%) and Belgium (5%). Spain (1,844 tonnes), Slovenia (1,652 tonnes), France (1,602 tonnes), Portugal (1,491 tonnes), the Czech Republic (1,276 tonnes) and Sweden (1,206 tonnes) held a little share of total exports.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of exports, amongst the main exporting countries, was attained by Slovenia, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Germany ($39M), the Netherlands ($34M) and Italy ($22M) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2018, together comprising 42% of total exports.

Among the main exporting countries, the Netherlands experienced the highest growth rate of exports, over the last eleven years, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices by Country

In 2018, the wood kitchenware and tableware export price in the European Union amounted to $5,306 per tonne, therefore, remained relatively stable against the previous year. Over the period from 2007 to 2018, it increased at an average annual rate of +2.2%. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2011 an increase of 12% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export prices for tableware and kitchenware of wood attained their peak figure in 2018 and is likely to continue its growth in the immediate term.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2018, the country with the highest price was Italy ($8,408 per tonne), while Romania ($2,803 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the Netherlands, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform

BUILDING TRUST IN THE CRYPTO MARKET

The cryptocurrency (‘crypto’) market is on the rise. Bitcoin, the main altcoin with a market share of over 60%, has seen its price increase from around $4,000 in April 2019 to over $10,000 in July 2019, despite the recent Congressional hearings on Facebook’s Libra.

In tandem with increasing prices, institutional investors are getting more involved in the market. Last year, we saw institutional investors surpass high-net-worth individuals (HNWIs) for the first time in terms of purchasing cryptocurrencies. It’s fast becoming part of a diversified investment strategy. Whilst there is still a strong UK/US footprint, we’re seeing deals in Switzerland, Hong Kong and Canada.

The speed of professionalization in the cryptocurrency market has ramped up, with much of the recent growth driven by more efficient financial infrastructure. This is helping financial institutions to take a more considered look at crypto, and use it to revamp their portfolios. As of July 2019, the total market capitalization for these digital assets in circulation is just under $300bn. It’s likely that this will rise above $300bn in the near future, though longer-term prospects depend on how the industry adapts to upcoming regulatory framework, with the likes of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA) looking to apply rules that will provide a stable platform to trade digital assets while reducing risk.

Trading volumes have been boosted by a sharp rise in over-the-counter (OTC) trading as crypto projects look for liquidity. In the so-called ‘Crypto Winter’ of 2018, crypto-centric OTC desks, including Genesis Trading and Circle (backed by Goldman Sachs) started reporting tremendous growth and this trend is continuing. According to research by Diar, over 25% of Bitcoin in circulation now sits in addresses that have a balance of between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC – volumes that point to financial institutions.

These institutional investors opt for OTC trading as opposed to spot exchanges for a number of reasons. Exchanges often have low liquidity in their order books which rules out large orders, OTC allows large orders without an unfavorable impact on the price, and exchanges limit the total number of Bitcoins that can be traded in one go – Coinbase, for example, has a daily trading limit of $25,000.

That said, there are a few complications that both buyer and seller could run into when they want to set up an OTC trade. There is often no guarantee that the asset (altcoin) will be delivered or cash paid. Most OTC brokers don’t provide an appropriate custody solution, which increases this settlement risk. It’s also worth noting that current OTC trading doesn’t include suitable Know Your Customer (KYC) procedures as it lacks the monitoring and surveillance tools of traditional trading systems.

A Safer Trade

However, there is a different avenue that institutional investors can explore. OTC trading via escrow can effectively tackle these risks and issues. This more robust approach benefits both sides of the trade as the escrow agent will follow everything to the letter. The seller benefits from dealing with a party that has funds to make the purchase, whilst the buyer can be confident a trusted independent party won’t release funds until the altcoins have been received. Crucially, by trading via escrow there is no need for participants to seek out an additional custody solution – it’s already in hand – and the escrow agent will perform KYC as part of the service provided.

If you go down this route, it’s important to select a global partner to avoid any multi-jurisdictional issues cropping up. The right partner will always start with a rigorous KYC process. Once both parties have been positively identified and no red flags are raised, they will move to exchange the cryptocurrency and the cash.  In most cases, it is best to first run a simulated deal with a small exchange of cryptocurrency, backed by cash in escrow, between the address of the seller and that of the buyer to establish a working link to build on.

Crypto represents a good opportunity for investors and it has a big future. There will undoubtedly be market consolidation, with a small number of the 1,500+ altcoins in circulation emerging as a favored core. As institutional investor appetite increases, bigger names will enter the arena. You can stay ahead of the game by using an escrow agent to implement custodial arrangements and manage the risks associated with this emerging asset class.

coconut

Global Coconut Market 2019 – Thailand’s Imports Continue to Grow Robustly, While Domestic Production Declines

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘World – Coconuts – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

In 2018, the global coconut market size increased by 3.5% to $35.6B. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers’ margins, which will be included in the final consumer price).

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of coconut consumption in 2018 were Indonesia (19M tonnes), the Philippines (14M tonnes) and India (12M tonnes), with a combined 72% share of global consumption. Sri Lanka, Brazil, Viet Nam, Papua New Guinea, Mexico and Thailand lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 16%.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of coconut consumption, amongst the main consuming countries, was attained by Viet Nam, while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, India ($10B), the Philippines ($6.7B) and Indonesia ($4.5B) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2018, with a combined 60% share of the global market. These countries were followed by Sri Lanka, Brazil, Papua New Guinea, Thailand, Viet Nam and Mexico, which together accounted for a further 20%.

The countries with the highest levels of coconut per capita consumption in 2018 were Papua New Guinea (140 kg per person), the Philippines (131 kg per person) and Sri Lanka (124 kg per person).

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of coconut per capita consumption, amongst the main consuming countries, was attained by Viet Nam, while the other global leaders experienced mixed trends in the per capita consumption figures.

Production 2007-2018

In 2018, approx. 61M tonnes of coconuts were produced worldwide; leveling off at the previous year. Overall, coconut production continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2012 with an increase of 5.3% y-o-y. Over the period under review, global coconut production attained its peak figure volume at 62M tonnes in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2018, production failed to regain its momentum. The general negative trend in terms of coconut output was largely conditioned by a relatively flat trend pattern of the harvested area and a relatively flat trend pattern in yield figures.

In value terms, coconut production stood at $36.3B in 2018 estimated in export prices. Overall, the total output indicated a mild expansion from 2007 to 2018: its value decreased at an average annual rate of -0.1% over the last eleven-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2018 figures, coconut production increased by +35.7% against 2016 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2009 when production volume increased by 50% y-o-y. In that year, global coconut production reached its peak level of $49.4B. From 2010 to 2018, global coconut production growth remained at a lower figure.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of coconut production in 2018 were Indonesia (19M tonnes), the Philippines (14M tonnes) and India (12M tonnes), together accounting for 73% of global production. These countries were followed by Sri Lanka, Brazil, Viet Nam, Papua New Guinea and Mexico, which together accounted for a further 15%.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of coconut production, amongst the main producing countries, was attained by Viet Nam, while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Harvested Area 2007-2018

In 2018, approx. 12M ha of coconuts were harvested worldwide; standing approx. at the previous year. In general, the coconut harvested area continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2010 with an increase of 2.5% y-o-y. Over the period under review, the harvested area dedicated to coconut production attained its peak figure in 2018 and is expected to retain its growth in the near future.

Yield 2007-2018

In 2018, the global average yield of coconuts amounted to 4.9 tonne per ha, approximately reflecting the previous year. In general, the coconut yield continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2012 with an increase of 4.3% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the average coconut yield attained its maximum level at 5.4 tonne per ha in 2007; however, from 2008 to 2018, yield stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Exports 2007-2018

Global exports stood at 555K tonnes in 2018, surging by 49% against the previous year. Overall, the total exports indicated resilient growth from 2007 to 2018: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +7.3% over the last eleven years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2018 with an increase of 49% against the previous year. In that year, global coconut exports reached their peak and are likely to continue its growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, coconut exports totaled $269M (IndexBox estimates) in 2018. Overall, the total exports indicated a buoyant increase from 2007 to 2018: its value increased at an average annual rate of +7.3% over the last eleven years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2018 figures, coconut exports increased by +107.2% against 2012 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 with an increase of 33% year-to-year. Over the period under review, global coconut exports reached their maximum in 2018 and are expected to retain its growth in the near future.

Exports by Country

Indonesia was the largest exporter of coconuts in the world, with the volume of exports amounting to 290K tonnes, which was near 52% of total exports in 2018. Thailand (70K tonnes) took the second position in the ranking, followed by Viet Nam (57K tonnes). All these countries together held near 23% share of total exports. The following exporters – Cote d’Ivoire (23K tonnes), Malaysia (19K tonnes), the Netherlands (16K tonnes), Mexico (14K tonnes), Guyana (12K tonnes) and India (11K tonnes) – together made up 17% of total exports.

Exports from Indonesia increased at an average annual rate of +12.8% from 2007 to 2018. At the same time, Guyana (+97.7%), Viet Nam (+43.2%), Malaysia (+18.9%), India (+11.3%), the Netherlands (+6.8%), Thailand (+6.4%), Cote d’Ivoire (+4.2%) and Mexico (+3.9%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Guyana emerged as the fastest-growing exporter in the world, with a CAGR of +97.7% from 2007-2018. While the share of Indonesia (+38 p.p.), Viet Nam (+10 p.p.), Thailand (+6.2 p.p.), Malaysia (+2.9 p.p.) and Guyana (+2.1 p.p.) increased significantly, the shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, the largest coconut markets worldwide were Thailand ($70M), Indonesia ($65M) and Viet Nam ($22M), with a combined 58% share of global exports. Cote d’Ivoire, the Netherlands, India, Mexico, Guyana and Malaysia lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 23%.

Among the main exporting countries, Guyana (+104.1% per year) recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to exports, over the last eleven years, while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices by Country

In 2018, the average coconut export price amounted to $483 per tonne, declining by -12.6% against the previous year. Overall, the coconut export price, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2008 an increase of 19% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the average export prices for coconuts reached their peak figure at $553 per tonne in 2017, and then declined slightly in the following year.

Prices varied noticeably by the country of origin; the country with the highest price was India ($1,127 per tonne), while Indonesia ($223 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by India, while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports 2007-2018

In 2018, approx. 671K tonnes of coconuts were imported worldwide; surging by 26% against the previous year. In general, coconut imports continue to indicate a resilient increase. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2016 when imports increased by 48% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global coconut imports reached their peak figure in 2018 and are likely to continue its growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, coconut imports totaled $334M (IndexBox estimates) in 2018. In general, coconut imports continue to indicate a remarkable expansion. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2011 with an increase of 43% y-o-y. The global imports peaked in 2018 and are likely to see steady growth in the immediate term.

Imports by Country

Thailand (210K tonnes) and Malaysia (199K tonnes) were the largest importers of coconuts in 2018, reaching approx. 31% and 30% of total imports, respectively. China (60K tonnes) ranks next in terms of the total imports with a 9% share, followed by the U.S. (5.7%). The United Arab Emirates (27K tonnes), the Netherlands (19K tonnes) and Singapore (11K tonnes) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of imports, amongst the main importing countries, was attained by Malaysia, while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Thailand ($77M) constitutes the largest market for imported coconuts worldwide, comprising 23% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by the U.S. ($34M), with a 10% share of global imports. It was followed by China, with a 8.9% share.

In Thailand, coconut imports increased at an average annual rate of +30.9% over the period from 2007-2018. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: the U.S. (+12.0% per year) and China (+8.2% per year).

Import Prices by Country

The average coconut import price stood at $498 per tonne in 2018, falling by -5.9% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the coconut import price continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2015 when the average import price increased by 23% year-to-year. In that year, the average import prices for coconuts reached their peak level of $631 per tonne. From 2016 to 2018, the growth in terms of the average import prices for coconuts remained at a somewhat lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably by the country of destination; the country with the highest price was the U.S. ($880 per tonne), while Malaysia ($147 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the United Arab Emirates, while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform

expert logistics

8 Strategies to Navigate Trade and Tariff Volatility

A steady drumbeat of tariffs, changing trade policy and an overall environment of uncertainty are leading many manufacturers to take a “wait and see” approach to investment and expansion. Companies are reassessing spending plans, finding it challenging to adjust how they do business on the fly in response to unsettled trade policies.

Manufacturers have seen the effects in the cost of raw materials, which has led customers with long-term pricing agreements to push back. Some are finding they need to negotiate changes to contract terms, while others are faced with locating new supply sources. However, these are difficult changes to make, and companies are unsure whether to push forward as uncertainty over tariff amounts, origin, timing and related retaliation persists.

As a result, manufacturers are hesitant to commit to large investments or expansion plans unless they can be certain they’ll see a long-term payoff. Whether manufacturers need to change their supply chain strategy, find alternative sourcing or re-source materials, they don’t feel confident implementing these initiatives without more evidence of stability in trade policy.

While the next round of tariffs may be out of manufacturers’ control, they can be proactive in preparing for changing trade policies by considering these steps to weather the storm:

Renegotiate rates with suppliers
Even if a manufacturer’s products aren’t direct tariff targets, they may include affected materials like steel and aluminum, resulting in higher cost of goods and materials. Now is the time to renegotiate terms with suppliers and try to lock them into long-term deals with favorable pricing. It may be easier said than done in many cases, particularly in cases where suppliers are using the assessment of new tariffs as an opportunity to raise prices. It’s critical manufacturers incorporate key protection clauses to avoid major price spikes that would be damaging to their business model when entering into an amended, extended or new supply contract.

Evaluate profit margins
With tariffs increasing the costs of goods and materials, it’s imperative for manufacturers to examine which costs they can absorb and which they’ll need to pass on to customers. This process involves understanding where a manufacturer might offset material cost increases with other efficiencies or cost rationalization, and the level of cost increase customers will tolerate. In customer contracts that have price escalation clauses or limitations, manufacturers may need to attempt to renegotiate clauses that prevent recovery of tariffs paid.

Consider free-trade zone opportunities
Too often, manufacturers overlook available opportunities provided by free-trade zones. The free-trade zone option allows companies to develop a product, then export it to a U.S. customs territory or foreign destination, potentially bypassing any tariffs on the product if it has been transformed.

Establish a dedicated trade and customs compliance group
Consider forming a trade compliance group with clear governance. Charge this group with developing strong “what-if” capabilities to understand the impact of various tariff and trade scenarios, including inventory and supply chain strategies, sourcing alternatives and modeling multiple data sources.

Take advantage of exclusion processes
When granted, exclusions apply retroactively to the date a tariff became effective. The Commerce Department reviews exclusion requests for Section 232 Steel and Aluminum tariffs, while the United States Trade Representative (USTR) provides a mechanism to request exclusions for Section 301 (China) tariffs. The Commerce Department has shown a willingness to provide exemptions in certain cases, particularly since March when the tariffs of 25 percent on steel and 10 percent on aluminum went into effect, making it all the more important for manufacturers to evaluate opportunities for exclusions.

Assess imported product classifications
Each product’s classification dictates whether or not it is included in the tariff order. Whether there is an accidental misclassification, an intentional misclassification by the overseas seller or a product that falls within a gray area, an audit of the classifications of imported goods will help manufacturers elude surprises and potential liabilities – and could even result in the avoidance of higher tariffs.

Import sooner versus later
Manufacturers with source material subject to the 10 percent tariff may want to procure more before the tariff leaps to 25 percent.

Seek out alternative sources of supply
Manufacturers should explore alternate supply sources to shield their business from the disruption caused by tariffs. They should be prepared to onboard new supply partners quickly – a process that might include partner profiles, legacy systems, custom coding and new systems to securely exchange order, invoicing, shipping and payment data.

Time will tell the extent to which new tariffs and trade policy will impact the manufacturing industry. Regardless of today’s uncertainty, manufacturers should take steps now to prepare and protect their business interests amid the shifting trade environment.

imports

U.S. Imports of Fats And Oils Refining and Blending Doubled over the Last Five Years

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘U.S. Fats And Oils Market. Analysis And Forecast to 2025.’ Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

In 2018, the revenue of the fat and oil market in the U.S. amounted to $10.6B. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers’ margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Over the period under review, fat and oil consumption continues to indicate a decrease. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2016 when the market value decreased by -4% year-to-year. Fat and oil consumption peaked at $18.6B in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2018, consumption stood at a somewhat lower figure.

U.S. Fat And Oil Production

In value terms, fat and oil production totaled $10.5B in 2018. In general, fat and oil production continues to indicate a decline. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2016 with a decrease of -4% year-to-year. Over the period under review, fat and oil production reached its peak figure level at $18.6B in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2018, production stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, shortening and cooking oils ($9.1B) constituted the leading product category. The second position in the ranking was occupied by margarine, butter blends, and butter substitutes ($1.3B).

From 2013 to 2018, the average annual rate of growth in terms of the production volume of shortening and cooking oils stood at -11.4%. With regard to the other produced products, the following average annual rates of growth were recorded: margarine, butter blends, and butter substitutes (-6.6% per year) and other fats and oils refining and blending (+20.4% per year).

Exports from the U.S.

In 2018, the amount of fats and oils exported from the U.S. stood at 22K tonnes, surging by 47% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the total exports indicated a strong expansion from 2013 to 2018: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +6.8% over the last five-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2018 figures, fat and oil exports increased by +126.1% against 2015 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2018 when exports increased by 47% year-to-year. In that year, fat and oil exports attained their peak and are likely to continue its growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, fat and oil exports stood at $26M (IndexBox estimates) in 2018. Over the period under review, the total exports indicated strong growth from 2013 to 2018: its value increased at an average annual rate of +6.8% over the last five years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2018 figures, fat and oil exports increased by +115.0% against 2015 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 when exports increased by 39% against the previous year. In that year, fat and oil exports reached their peak and are likely to continue its growth in the immediate term.

Exports by Country

Libya (5.9K tonnes), Egypt (3.1K tonnes) and India (3K tonnes) were the main destinations of fat and oil exports from the U.S., with a combined 55% share of total exports.

From 2013 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of exports, amongst the main countries of destination, was attained by India (+270.1% per year), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Libya ($5.1M) emerged as the key foreign market for fat and oil exports from the U.S., comprising 19% of total fat and oil exports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by India ($2.3M), with a 8.6% share of total exports. It was followed by Egypt, with a 8.2% share.

From 2013 to 2018, the average annual growth rate of value to Libya was relatively modest. Exports to the other major destinations recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: India (+201.4% per year) and Egypt (0.0% per year).

Export Prices by Country

The average fat and oil export price stood at $1,210 per tonne in 2018, going down by -5.7% against the previous year. Over the last five-year period, it increased at an average annual rate of +3.1%. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2015 an increase of 23% year-to-year. The export price peaked at $1,283 per tonne in 2017, and then declined slightly in the following year.

Prices varied noticeably by the country of destination; the country with the highest price was South Korea ($4,008 per tonne), while the average price for exports to Egypt ($690 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was recorded for supplies to South Korea, while the prices for the other major destinations experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports into the U.S.

In 2018, the fat and oil imports into the U.S. stood at 55K tonnes, increasing by 18% against the previous year. In general, fat and oil imports continue to indicate a skyrocketing expansion. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2014 with an increase of 42% y-o-y. Imports peaked in 2018 and are likely to continue its growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, fat and oil imports totaled $154M (IndexBox estimates) in 2018. Over the period under review, the total imports indicated remarkable growth from 2013 to 2018: its value increased at an average annual rate of +20.1% over the last five-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2018 figures, fat and oil imports increased by +80.1% against 2013 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2018 when imports increased by 18% y-o-y. In that year, fat and oil imports reached their peak and are likely to continue its growth in the immediate term.

Imports by Country

In 2018, Indonesia (16K tonnes) constituted the largest supplier of fat and oil to the U.S., with a 29% share of total imports. Moreover, fat and oil imports from Indonesia exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest supplier, Spain (6.1K tonnes), threefold. India (5.9K tonnes) ranked third in terms of total imports with a 11% share.

From 2013 to 2018, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume from Indonesia stood at +105.7%. The remaining supplying countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: Spain (+81.4% per year) and India (+8.4% per year).

In value terms, Indonesia ($49M) constituted the largest supplier of fat and oil to the U.S., comprising 32% of total fat and oil imports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by Malaysia ($15M), with a 10% share of total imports. It was followed by India, with a 7.6% share.

From 2013 to 2018, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value from Indonesia stood at +113.3%. The remaining supplying countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: Malaysia (+52.6% per year) and India (+9.8% per year).

Import Prices by Country

In 2018, the average fat and oil import price amounted to $2,774 per tonne, flattening at the previous year. Over the period under review, the fat and oil import price continues to indicate an abrupt decline. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2016 an increase of 26% year-to-year. The import price peaked at $3,840 per tonne in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2018, import prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably by the country of origin; the country with the highest price was Germany ($7,513 per tonne), while the price for Ecuador ($1,043 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Malaysia, while the prices for the other major suppliers experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform