The European Pasta Market Calms Down after the Strike of the Pandemic

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The European Pasta Market Calms Down after the Strike of the Pandemic

August 9th, 2020 IndexBox Leave a comment

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘EU – Uncooked Pasta – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends And Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

The Hit of the Pandemic in Early 2020: Hype in Retail Demand against Disrupted Supply Chains

In 2019, the EU uncooked pasta market decreased by -2.5% to $5.2B (IndexBox estimates) for the first time since 2016, thus ending a two-year rising trend. Over the period under review, consumption, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2018 with an increase of 7% against the previous year. As a result, consumption attained a peak level of $5.3B, and then reduced slightly in the following year.

Population growth and disposable income growth remain the main market drivers, as well as rising international tourism. These factors, taking into account the general dynamics of the country’s economy, determine the development of the HoReCa sector, which also contributes to the growth of the market.

Until 2020, the European economy has been developing steadily for five years, although at a slower pace than in the previous decade. The slowdown in European economic growth was caused by a slowdown in the world’s economy, increased political uncertainty in the world, and trade wars between the United States and China. According to the World Bank outlook from January 2020, the European economy was expected to pick up the growth momentum and increase by from +2.5% to +2.7% per year in the medium term.

In early 2020, however, the European economy entered a period of the crisis caused by the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. In order to battle the spread of the virus, most countries in the world implemented quarantine measures that put on halt production and transport activity. The result will be a drop in GDP relative to previous years and a sharp fall in the demand for oil, which led to extremely low prices and heavy oil production cuts. The combination of those factors disrupts economic growth heavily throughout the world, increases unemployment, and lowers consumer spending. The European uncooked pasta market also faces challenges due to the pandemic, however, the market impact varies widely from the consumer level and through the supply chain.

Against the backdrop of the introduction of quarantine restrictions which lead to the closure of production, a halt in transport activity, and a drop in incomes, over March-April of 2020 many countries experienced a booming consumer demand for long-term storage food products, including pasta. This is quite typical: during any crisis, consumers buy more non-perishable products for the future, which applies primarily to cereals and pasta.

The closure of HoReCa threatens pasta suppliers with a loss of sales and forces them to seek new sales channels; however, the drop in demand from restaurants and cafes is to be partially offset by a spike in retail sales. With the onset of the coronavirus pandemic, there was an overwhelming demand for long-term essentials including cereals and pasta for a couple of months. Accordingly, increased demand for retail packaging against lower demand for bulk packages for HoReCa. On the other hand, as consumers buy more pasta for the future, there is an increasing need for retail packaging of a larger size.

Quarantine measures and the risk of mass illness of employees can lead to a temporary reduction in pasta production. In addition, a major COVID-related risk comes from the disruption of established international supply chains between durum wheat growers, importers, pasta producers, distributors, and retailers due to asynchronous quarantine measures and restricted transport activity. Problems with the export of paste due to asynchronous transport and cross-border restrictions can lead to overstocking of manufacturers’ warehouses, while the rush demand in retail in case of problems with transport and border crossings can lead to interruptions in supply. On the other hand, grain cultivation is less affected by the virus than the production of fruits and vegetables due to its high mechanization and less dependence on immigrant workers. This will contribute to the stability of the supply of durum wheat for the production of pasta.

With the weakening of quarantine measures and the creation of certain stocks, consumer demand is gradually normalizing, and the market is looking for a new balance of supply and demand. As shown below, gradual stabilization in pasta production and re-establishing cross-border supplies show a sign for the market is gradually finding the ‘new normality’.

Countries which Increased Their Local Output amid the Temporary Disruption of International Supply Chains Are Now Likely to Return to the Italian Pasta

In 2019, the amount of uncooked pasta produced in the European Union rose slightly to 5.5M tonnes, picking up by 1.8% compared with 2018 (IndexBox estimates). The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.6% over the period from 2012 to 2019; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being observed in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2015 with an increase of 4% against the previous year. The volume of production peaked in 2019 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

Italy (3.5M tonnes) remains the largest uncooked pasta producing country in the European Union, comprising approx. 64% of the total volume. Moreover, uncooked pasta production in Italy exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, Spain (344K tonnes), tenfold. The third position in this ranking was occupied by Poland (268K tonnes), with a 4.9% share.

From 2012 to 2019, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume in Italy amounted to +1.9%. The remaining producing countries recorded the following average annual rates of production growth: Spain (+3.3% per year) and Poland (+4.3% per year).

Italy also dominates uncooked pasta exports structure, recording 2M tonnes, which was near 76% of total exports in 2019. It was distantly followed by Spain (125K tonnes), committing a 4.9% share of total exports. Belgium (109K tonnes), Greece (61K tonnes), Germany (55K tonnes) and France (39K tonnes) took a little share of total exports.

On the other hand, the largest uncooked pasta importing markets (in value terms) in the European Union were Germany ($421M), France ($366M) and the UK ($205M), together accounting for 53% of total imports. The Netherlands, Belgium, Spain, Sweden, Italy, Poland, Austria, the Czech Republic, and Denmark lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 34%.

At the beginning of 2020, certain shifts occurred in key market indicators. Thus, the coronavirus pandemic led to a strong increase in production in the pasta industry, which was caused by the rush of consumer demand for long-term storage products against the background of quarantine restrictions. At the same time, in Germany, France, and Spain, which constitute large importers of pasta, production increased even more than in Italy, due to a possible violation of the supply chain due to border closures and transport restrictions.

At the same time, in May, there was a decrease in production volumes in these countries, which indicates the stabilization of demand against the backdrop of easing quarantine restrictions and re-establishing the supply chains. If this trend continues, a significant decrease in imports from Italy is unlikely, and the most likely scenario is a gradual return to the usual supply chains and a gradual stabilization of the market.

The COVID Pandemic Did Not Bull the Producer Prices, Therefore the Pasta Prices in Major Consuming Countries Balance Out as the Rush in Demand Wanes

Against the background of production growth, at the beginning of 2020, there is a slight increase in the prices of pasta producers, but there are no extraordinary rates of price growth. Thus, producer prices rise slightly in Germany; in Italy and Spain, the prices show a stabilization sign after a slight increase in February-April, and in France, they even decline after rising in March-April.

Thus, the crisis of the COVID pandemic does not yet lead to a significant increase in prices, and the market is trying to find a new balance after the rush in March-April and the resulting increase in pasta production. Further price dynamics will depend on the situation with durum wheat supplies and the degree of threat of a new wave of quarantine restrictions. However, since some transport and cross-border restrictions still remain, local small price fluctuations are possible due to the current supply and demand conditions.

As for the prices of durum wheat, they have also been growing since the beginning of the year in almost all of the supplying countries. The only exception is Canada, where prices remained near the same level until April. Further price dynamics are subject to significant uncertainty due to the ongoing pandemic and the threat of worsening weather conditions and abnormal droughts, especially in Eastern Europe. If price increases continue, this will create an additional burden on pasta producers and force them to raise prices or lower margins in order to save consumers.

As for consumer prices for pasta products, their dynamics are largely determined by the same circumstances as the dynamics of production. Thus, with the onset of the pandemic in March-April, there has been a sharp increase in consumer prices for pasta, although producer prices during this period grew much less pronouncedly. This was due to the rush of demand for long-term retail products against the backdrop of strict quarantine restrictions, which, together with disruptions in supply chains, led to temporary local shortages of products. In May-June, as the situation improves and quarantine measures gradually soften, consumer prices stabilized or even decline.

Thus, the factor of consumer excitement is gradually disappearing, and in the future a stabilization or even some decrease in prices can be expected against the background of increased production, finding a new balance of demand and supply. However, due to the fact that some restrictions on transport activity persist, small price fluctuations in local markets due to disruptions in the supply chain are also possible.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform

Archives, Global Trade Daily, Imports/Exports

Global Wheat Production to Reach 758.3M tonnes in 2020

July 22nd, 2020 IndexBox Leave a comment

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘World – Wheat – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

FAO’s updated projections indicate that global wheat production will reach 758.3 million tonnes in 2020, showing a slight decrease of 0.5 percent over the previous year’s highs and still at a fairly high level.

Despite general concerns about the COVID-19 situation, it is not expected to have any significant impact on wheat production this year. Potential yield declines due to unfavorable weather conditions in the EU, Ukraine and the United States will be offset by strong performances in Australia, Canada, Russia, and some Asian countries.

Total wheat production in Europe is projected to decline in 2020, constrained by a fall in harvests in the European Union (EU-27 excluding the UK), where total wheat production is expected to decline to 131 million tonnes. The decrease is due to a reduction in acreage, especially in France, the largest producer in the EU, due to excessive rainfall during the planting season.

In contrast, wheat production in the Russian Federation is projected to rise to 77 million tonnes, despite droughts in March and April, mainly due to an expansion in planted areas as wheat prices rise to record highs.

In Ukraine, wheat production is expected to decline to 25 million tonnes in 2020, which is 3.3 million tonnes less than in 2019, as a result of reduced planted areas and dry conditions in some regions.

In North America, unfavorable weather conditions in the U.S., including low temperatures and scarce rainfall, could affect wheat yields, leading to a decline in production to 50.8 million tonnes in 2020. In Canada, expanded winter plantings are expected to drive production to 34 million tons, assuming that yields and area sown with the spring crop remain unchanged.

In Asia, India’s wheat production in 2020 is projected to a record high of 105 million tonnes, largely due to increased planted areas driven by price increases. In Pakistan, favorable weather conditions will ensure production at 26 million tonnes, while in mainland China, the wheat output is expected to rise slightly.

In the Middle East, the overall outlook is also favorable. In Turkey, the largest producer in the region, wheat production is likely to rise to 20 million tonnes, up 5.3 percent from a year earlier. Results in neighboring countries are expected to remain unchanged from the previous year’s strong harvest.

In North Africa, dry weather in early 2020 will negatively impact harvest in Morocco, where production is projected at a four-year low, and to a lesser extent in Algeria and Tunisia, compared with highs in the previous year.

In the Southern Hemisphere, good crop prospects are expected in Australia, (21.4 million tonnes), Argentina (20.3 million tonnes), and Brazil.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of wheat consumption in 2019 were China (137M tonnes), India (102M tonnes), and Russia (43M tonnes), together accounting for 37% of global consumption. Turkey, the U.S., Pakistan, Egypt, Germany, France, Iran, Italy, and Algeria lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 23%.

From 2009 to 2019, the biggest increases were in Algeria, while wheat consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, China ($59.9B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was occupied by India ($29B). It was followed by Turkey.

The countries with the highest levels of wheat per capita consumption in 2019 were Algeria (324 kg per person), Turkey (320 kg per person), and Russia (298 kg per person).

World Wheat Production

In 2019, global wheat production 762.2M tonnes, growing by 3.9% compared with the previous year. In general, production showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2011 with an increase of 6.7% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global production reached the peak volume at 773M tonnes in 2017; however, from 2018 to 2019, production failed to regain the momentum. The generally positive trend in terms output was largely conditioned by a relatively flat trend pattern of the harvested area and a modest increase in yield figures.

Wheat Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of wheat production in 2019 were China (134M tonnes), India (102M tonnes), and Russia (75M tonnes), together accounting for 41% of global production. These countries were followed by the U.S., France, Canada, Ukraine, Pakistan, Australia, Turkey, Germany, and Argentina, which together accounted for a further 34%.

From 2009 to 2019, the most notable rate of growth in terms of wheat production, amongst the main producing countries, was attained by Argentina, while wheat production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

World Wheat Harvested Area

In 2019, the total area harvested in terms of wheat production worldwide reached 214M ha, stabilizing at 2018 figures. In general, the harvested area, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2011 when the harvested area increased by 2.2% year-to-year. Over the period under review, the harvested area dedicated to wheat production reached the maximum at 225M ha in 2009; however, from 2010 to 2019, the harvested area stood at a somewhat lower figure.

World Wheat Yield

The global average wheat yield reached 3.5 tonnes per ha in 2019, growing by 2.2% on the year before. The yield figure increased at an average annual rate of +1.4% over the period from 2009 to 2019. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 when the yield increased by 5.5% against the previous year. The global yield peaked at 3.5 tonnes per ha in 2017; afterward, it flattened through to 2019.

World Wheat Exports

In 2019, global wheat exports expanded to 178M tonnes, with an increase of 3.9% on the previous year’s figure. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.9% from 2009 to 2019; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2014 with an increase of 7.7% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global exports hit record highs in 2019 and are expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, wheat exports rose slightly to $39.9B (IndexBox estimates) in 2019. Over the period under review, total exports indicated a moderate expansion from 2009 to 2019: its value increased at an average annual rate of +2.9% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2019 figures, exports increased by +12.2% against 2016 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2011 with an increase of 44% y-o-y. Global exports peaked at $49B in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2019, exports remained at a lower figure.

Exports by Country

In 2019, Russia (32.5M tonnes), the U.S. (27M tonnes), Canada (21.5M tonnes), France (20M tonnes), and Ukraine (20M tonnes) were the main exporters of wheat in the world, generating 68% of total export. Argentina took the next position in the ranking, followed by Australia.

From 2009 to 2019, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the leading exporting countries, was attained by Ukraine, while exports for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest wheat supplying countries worldwide were Russia ($6.4B), the U.S. ($6.3B), and Canada ($5.4B), with a combined 45% share of global exports.

Export Prices by Country

In 2019, the average wheat export price amounted to $224 per tonne, flattening at the previous year. Overall, the export price, however, recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2011 an increase of 36% year-to-year. As a result, the export price reached a peak level of $315 per tonne. From 2012 to 2019, the growth in terms of the average export prices failed to regain momentum.

Average prices varied somewhat amongst the major exporting countries. In 2019, the countries with the highest prices were Australia ($259 per tonne) and Ukraine ($258 per tonne), while Kazakhstan ($187 per tonne) and Bulgaria ($195 per tonne) were amongst the lowest.

From 2009 to 2019, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Australia, while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform

Archives, Global Trade Daily, International Trade

The Asian-Pacific Coal Market Grows Markedly for the Third Consecutive Year

July 7th, 2020 IndexBox Leave a comment

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘Asia-Pacific – Coal – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

In 2019, the Asia-Pacific coal market increased by 6.1% to $751.8B, rising for the third consecutive year after four years of decline. The total market indicated buoyant growth from 2007 to 2019: its value increased at an average annual rate of +3.8% over the last twelve-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Over the period under review, the market attained the maximum level in 2019 and is expected to retain growth in years to come.

Consumption by Country

China (4,136M tonnes) constituted the country with the largest volume of coal consumption, accounting for 69% of total volume. Moreover, coal consumption in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, India (1,012M tonnes), fourfold. Japan (186M tonnes) ranked third in terms of total consumption with a 3.1% share.

From 2007 to 2019, the average annual growth rate of volume in China amounted to +3.7%. In India, the average annual rate of growth amounted to +5.2% per year, while in and Japan, the volume of consumption remained relatively unchanged against its outset level.

In value terms, China ($572.6B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was occupied by India ($90.7B). It was followed by Japan.

The countries with the highest levels of coal per capita consumption in 2019 were Australia (4.85 tonne per person), China (2.84 tonne per person) and South Korea (2.78 tonne per person).

From 2007 to 2019, the biggest increases were in Indonesia, while coal per capita consumption for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production in Asia-Pacific

In 2019, production of coal increased by 3% to 5,771M tonnes, rising for the third consecutive year after three years of decline. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.3% from 2007 to 2019; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2010 with an increase of 12% year-to-year. The volume of production peaked in 2019 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

Production by Country

China (3,842M tonnes) constituted the country with the largest volume of coal production, comprising approx. 67% of total volume. Moreover, coal production in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, India (760M tonnes), fivefold. Indonesia (536M tonnes) ranked third in terms of total production with a 9.3% share.

In China, coal production expanded at an average annual rate of +3.0% over the period from 2007-2019. The remaining producing countries recorded the following average annual rates of production growth: India (+3.7% per year) and Indonesia (+7.8% per year).

Imports in Asia-Pacific

In 2019, supplies from abroad of coal increased by 2.2% to 1,093M tonnes, rising for the fourth consecutive year after two years of decline. Total imports indicated a resilient expansion from 2007 to 2019: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +6.7% over the last twelve years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2019 figures, imports increased by +24.1% against 2015 indices. The volume of import peaked in 2019 and is likely to see gradual growth in years to come.

In value terms, coal imports contracted to $102B (IndexBox estimates) in 2019. In general, imports posted a buoyant expansion. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2008 with an increase of 79% y-o-y. The level of import peaked at $110.7B in 2018, and then shrank in the following year.

Imports by Country

In 2019, China (300M tonnes), India (254M tonnes), Japan (186M tonnes) and South Korea (141M tonnes) were the main importers of coal in Asia-Pacific, creating 81% of total import. They were distantly followed by Taiwan, Chinese (67M tonnes), committing a 6.1% share of total imports. The following importers – Malaysia (34M tonnes) and the Philippines (27M tonnes) – together made up 5.6% of total imports.

From 2007 to 2019, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the main importing countries, was attained by China, while imports for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, China ($23.4B), Japan ($23.3B) and India ($23B) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2019, together accounting for 68% of total imports.

China saw the highest growth rate of the value of imports, among the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices by Country

The coal import price in Asia-Pacific stood at $93 per tonne in 2019, waning by -9.9% against the previous year. Import price indicated tangible growth from 2007 to 2019: its price increased at an average annual rate of +2.4% over the last twelve-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2008 when the import price increased by 71% y-o-y. Over the period under review, import prices reached the maximum at $130 per tonne in 2011; however, from 2012 to 2019, import prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably by the country of destination; the country with the highest price was Japan ($125 per tonne), while the Philippines ($70 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2019, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Malaysia, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform

Archives, Global Trade Daily, International Trade

The Global Potato Market Hits Record Highs

June 29th, 2020 IndexBox Leave a comment

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘World – Potato – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

In 2019, the global potato market increased by 6% to $140.5B, rising for the third consecutive year after two years of decline. The market value increased at an average annual rate of +3.0% from 2007 to 2019; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Over the period under review, the global market hits record highs in 2019 and is expected to retain growth in years to come.

Consumption by Country

The countries with the highest volumes of potato consumption in 2019 were China (93M tonnes), India (51M tonnes) and Ukraine (23M tonnes), with a combined 45% share of global consumption. These countries were followed by Russia, the U.S., Bangladesh, Germany, Poland, the Netherlands, Canada and Belarus, which together accounted for a further 23%.

From 2007 to 2019, the most notable rate of growth in terms of potato consumption, amongst the leading consuming countries, was attained by Bangladesh, while potato consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, China ($52.3B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was occupied by India ($10.5B). It was followed by the U.S..

The countries with the highest levels of potato per capita consumption in 2019 were Belarus (591 kg per person), Ukraine (521 kg per person) and the Netherlands (350 kg per person).

Market Forecast 2019-2030

Driven by increasing demand for potato worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next decade. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +1.6% for the period from 2019 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 441M tonnes by the end of 2030.

Production 2007-2019

In 2019, the amount of potatoes produced worldwide reached 371M tonnes, surging by 2.1% on the previous year. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.6% from 2007 to 2019; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2011 with an increase of 12% against the previous year. Global production peaked in 2019 and is expected to retain growth in years to come. The general positive trend in terms output was largely conditioned by a slight expansion of the harvested area and modest growth in yield figures.

Production by Country

The countries with the highest volumes of potato production in 2019 were China (93M tonnes), India (51M tonnes) and Ukraine (23M tonnes), with a combined 45% share of global production. These countries were followed by Russia, the U.S., Bangladesh, Germany, France, Poland, the Netherlands, Canada and Belarus, which together accounted for a further 25%.

From 2007 to 2019, the most notable rate of growth in terms of potato production, amongst the key producing countries, was attained by Bangladesh, while potato production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Harvested Area 2007-2019

In 2019, the total area harvested in terms of potatoes production worldwide was estimated at 18M ha, approximately mirroring the previous year. Over the period under review, the harvested area, however, saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2011 with an increase of 2.7% year-to-year. As a result, the harvested area attained the peak level of 19M ha. From 2012 to 2019, the growth of the global potato harvested area failed to regain the momentum.

Yield 2007-2019

The global average potato yield stood at 21 tonne per ha in 2019, growing by 1.6% on 2018. The yield figure increased at an average annual rate of +1.7% over the period from 2007 to 2019; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations being observed throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2011 when the yield increased by 8.9% year-to-year. Over the period under review, the average potato yield hit record highs in 2019 and is expected to retain growth in years to come.

Exports 2007-2019

In 2019, shipments abroad of potatoes increased by 4.9% to 15M tonnes, rising for the fourth consecutive year after two years of decline. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.2% from 2007 to 2019; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 when exports increased by 42% against the previous year. As a result, exports reached the peak of 16M tonnes. From 2014 to 2019, the growth of global exports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, potato exports rose rapidly to $4.8B (IndexBox estimates) in 2019. The total export value increased at an average annual rate of +2.8% from 2007 to 2019; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period.

Exports by Country

In 2019, France (3.5M tonnes), distantly followed by Germany (1.9M tonnes), the Netherlands (1.8M tonnes), Belgium (1M tonnes) and Egypt (0.7M tonnes) were the main exporters of potatoes, together committing 60% of total exports. Pakistan (625K tonnes), the U.S. (550K tonnes), Canada (504K tonnes), China (471K tonnes), India (417K tonnes), Spain (303K tonnes) and Saudi Arabia (294K tonnes) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2007 to 2019, the biggest increases were in India, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest potato supplying countries worldwide were France ($812M), the Netherlands ($800M) and Germany ($440M), together comprising 43% of global exports. China, Egypt, the U.S., Belgium, Canada, Spain, Pakistan, India and Saudi Arabia lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 35%.

In terms of the main exporting countries, India recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices by Country

The average potato export price stood at $323 per tonne in 2019, picking up by 4.1% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export price, however, saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2011 when the average export price increased by 18% year-to-year. As a result, export price attained the peak level of $375 per tonne. From 2012 to 2019, the growth in terms of the average export prices remained at a lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably by the country of origin; the country with the highest price was China ($613 per tonne), while Saudi Arabia ($170 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2019, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by China, while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform

Archives, Global Trade Daily, Imports/Exports

Global Fig Market Posts Solid Gains

June 27th, 2020 IndexBox Leave a comment

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘World – Figs – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

Exports 2007-2019

In 2019, shipments abroad of figs increased by 4% to 130K tonnes, rising for the fourth consecutive year after two years of decline. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.6% over the period from 2007 to 2019; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2010 with an increase of 13% year-to-year. Over the period under review, global exports attained the maximum in 2019 and are expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, fig exports shrank to $467M (IndexBox estimates) in 2019. The total export value increased at an average annual rate of +3.9% over the period from 2007 to 2019; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period.

Exports by Country

Turkey dominates fig exports structure, amounting to 85K tonnes, which was near 65% of total exports in 2019. It was distantly followed by Spain (7.6K tonnes), making up a 5.8% share of total exports. Germany (3.8K tonnes), the Netherlands (3.8K tonnes), Syrian Arab Republic (3.7K tonnes), Greece (3.6K tonnes), the U.S. (2.3K tonnes), France (2K tonnes) and Iran (2K tonnes) occupied a relatively small share of total exports.

From 2007 to 2019, average annual rates of growth with regard to fig exports from Turkey stood at +5.0%. At the same time, Greece (+6.5%), Germany (+5.3%), Spain (+3.9%), Syrian Arab Republic (+3.7%) and the Netherlands (+2.3%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Greece emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in the world, with a CAGR of +6.5% from 2007-2019. France experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, the U.S. (-2.3%) and Iran (-7.0%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. From 2007 to 2019, the share of Turkey and Spain increased by +29% and +2.2% percentage points, while Iran (-2.1 p.p.) saw their share reduced. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Turkey ($287M) remains the largest fig supplier worldwide, comprising 61% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by the Netherlands ($21M), with a 4.5% share of global exports. It was followed by Spain, with a 4.4% share.

From 2007 to 2019, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value in Turkey totaled +4.5%. The remaining exporting countries recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: the Netherlands (+3.2% per year) and Spain (+7.7% per year).

Export Prices by Country

The average fig export price stood at $3,591 per tonne in 2019, dropping by -6.4% against the previous year. In general, the export price, however, saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2008 an increase of 20% year-to-year. As a result, export price attained the peak level of $4,138 per tonne. From 2009 to 2019, the growth in terms of the average export prices failed to regain the momentum.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2019, the country with the highest price was the U.S. ($5,855 per tonne), while Iran ($2,269 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2019, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Syrian Arab Republic, while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports 2007-2019

Global fig imports rose notably to 162K tonnes in 2019, surging by 10% compared with the previous year’s figure. In general, total imports indicated a tangible expansion from 2007 to 2019: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +4.7% over the last twelve years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2019 figures, imports increased by +25.8% against 2017 indices. Global imports peaked in 2019 and are likely to see gradual growth in the near future.

In value terms, fig imports rose sharply to $603M (IndexBox estimates) in 2019. Overall, total imports indicated a strong increase from 2007 to 2019: its value increased at an average annual rate of +4.7% over the last twelve-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Over the period under review, global imports hit record highs in 2019 and are expected to retain growth in the near future.

Imports by Country

In 2019, India (27K tonnes), followed by Germany (18K tonnes), France (15K tonnes), the U.S. (12K tonnes) and the UK (7.5K tonnes) were the key importers of figs, together making up 49% of total imports. The following importers – Russia (5.6K tonnes), Austria (5.5K tonnes), Italy (5.2K tonnes), the Netherlands (4.7K tonnes), Canada (4.1K tonnes), Viet Nam (3.6K tonnes) and Switzerland (3.6K tonnes) – together made up 20% of total imports.

From 2007 to 2019, the biggest increases were in India, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, India ($96M), Germany ($63M) and France ($57M) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2019, together accounting for 36% of global imports. These countries were followed by the U.S., the UK, Austria, Canada, Italy, the Netherlands, Switzerland, Viet Nam and Russia, which together accounted for a further 33%.

Viet Nam saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, among the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices by Country

The average fig import price stood at $3,725 per tonne in 2019, waning by -4.4% against the previous year. In general, the import price, however, saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2008 an increase of 24% against the previous year. As a result, import price reached the peak level of $4,294 per tonne. From 2009 to 2019, the growth in terms of the average import prices failed to regain the momentum.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2019, the country with the highest price was Canada ($5,675 per tonne), while Russia ($1,529 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2019, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the U.S., while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform

Archives, Global Trade Daily, Imports/Exports

Global Canned Meat Market Grows For the Fourth Consecutive Year

June 25th, 2020 IndexBox Leave a comment

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘World – Canned Meat – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends And Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

In 2019, the global canned meat market increased by 2.9% to $245.5B, rising for the fourth year in a row after two years of decline. The market value increased at an average annual rate of +3.2% over the period from 2007 to 2019; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2008 with an increase of 13% against the previous year. Global consumption peaked in 2019 and is likely to see steady growth in the immediate term.