grapes Archives

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘World – Grapes – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

Increased grape production in China buoyed the global market against a fall in the grape crop in India, the EU and Russia, which enables the global production in 2020 to remain consistent with 2019 data. The export potential of Chinese and Australian grapes has improved due to the progress achieved in cultivation methods and the use of particularly fertile varieties of grape.

Key Trends and Insights

Global grape production stood at 76.6М tonnes (IndexBox estimates) in 2020, remaining consistent with 2019 figures. According to USDA data, poor weather conditions caused a decline in production in India (125К tonnes), Turkey (-50К tonnes), the EU (-170К tonnes), and Russia (-23К tonnes). The fall in production seen in these countries was offset by increased grape output in China (+400К tonnes), enabling a further surge in exports. The hot summer of 2020 also secured a stable grape harvest in the USA (+114К tonnes), Egypt (+35К tonnes) and Peru (+12К tonnes). Production remained unchanged against 2019 in Brazil, Uzbekistan and Chili.

China has indicated a pronounced growth in grape exports in recent years, largely as a result of the advances in cultivation technology and improvements in product quality. From 2014 to 2020, Chinese grape exports surged threefold: from 126К tonnes to 420К tonnes . Australian exports almost doubled over the same period: from 86.4К tonnes to 163К tonnes.

Expanding demand from the EU and Asian markets, against enhanced incomes and a rise in population, are set to drive the further growth of the global grape market. EU imports continued to increase to 1654К tonnes in 2020, despite the pandemic.

The second half of 2020 signaled a recovery in demand from the wine industry, as the quarantine measures were more or less lifted. The wine market expansion, driven by e-commerce development and high investments, promises strong demand for grapes in the coming years.

China to Lead in the Grape Consumption while the U.S. to Remain the Key Exporter

The countries with the highest volumes of grape consumption in 2019 were China (14M tonnes), Italy (7.5M tonnes) and the U.S. (6.5M tonnes), together comprising 37% of global consumption.

From 2012 to 2019, the biggest increases were in China, while grape consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest grape markets worldwide were China ($22.1B), the U.S. ($14.8B) and France ($13B), with a combined 37% share of the global market.

The countries with the highest levels of grape per capita consumption in 2019 were Italy (126 kg per person), Spain (120 kg per person) and Chile (104 kg per person).

In 2019, the U.S. (660K tonnes), followed by the Netherlands (376K tonnes), Germany (322K tonnes), the UK (275K tonnes), Russia (272K tonnes), Hong Kong SAR (240K tonnes) and China (239K tonnes) represented the key importers of grapes, together committing 53% of total imports. The following importers – Canada (187K tonnes), Thailand (130K tonnes), Poland (117K tonnes), France (116K tonnes), Indonesia (114K tonnes) and Pakistan (98K tonnes) – together made up 17% of total imports.

In value terms, the largest grape importing markets worldwide were the U.S. ($1.3B), Germany ($682M) and the Netherlands ($643M), together accounting for 30% of global imports. China, the UK, Hong Kong SAR, Canada, Thailand, Indonesia, Russia, France, Poland and Pakistan lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 40%.

The average grape import price stood at $1,911 per tonne in 2019, standing approx. at the previous year. In general, the import price, however, recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2017 an increase of 4.3% against the previous year. Over the period under review, average import prices hit record highs at $2,048 per tonne in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2019, import prices remained at a lower figure.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘World – Dried Grapes – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends And Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

The global dried grapes market revenue amounted to $6B in 2018, going down by -3.5% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers’ margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +3.3% from 2007 to 2018; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2010 when the market value increased by 15% y-o-y. The global dried grapes consumption peaked at $6.7B in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2018, consumption stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Consumption By Country

China (512K tonnes) constituted the country with the largest volume of dried grapes consumption, comprising approx. 18% of total consumption. Moreover, dried grapes consumption in China exceeded the figures recorded by the world’s second-largest consumer, India (208K tonnes), twofold. The U.S. (160K tonnes) ranked third in terms of total consumption with a 5.6% share.

From 2007 to 2018, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume in China stood at +6.6%. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of consumption growth: India (+8.1% per year) and the U.S. (-5.4% per year).

In value terms, China ($896M), the U.S. ($454M) and India ($444M) were the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2018, with a combined 30% share of the global market.

The countries with the highest levels of dried grapes per capita consumption in 2018 were the UK (1,470 kg per 1000 persons), Germany (831 kg per 1000 persons) and Japan (825 kg per 1000 persons).

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of dried grapes per capita consumption, amongst the main consuming countries, was attained by India, while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Market Forecast 2019-2025

Driven by increasing demand for dried grapes worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next seven-year period. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +0.1% for the seven-year period from 2018 to 2025, which is projected to bring the market volume to 3M tonnes by the end of 2025.

Production 2007-2018

In 2018, approx. 2.9M tonnes of dried grapes were produced worldwide; lowering by -5.8% against the previous year. Over the period under review, dried grapes production, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2013 when production volume increased by 8.7% y-o-y. The global dried grapes production peaked at 3.2M tonnes in 2016; however, from 2017 to 2018, production remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, dried grapes production stood at $7.1B in 2018 estimated in export prices. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +3.5% over the period from 2007 to 2018; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded over the period under review. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 when production volume increased by 12% against the previous year. The global dried grapes production peaked at $7.3B in 2016; however, from 2017 to 2018, production stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of dried grapes production in 2018 were China (516K tonnes), Turkey (285K tonnes) and India (230K tonnes), with a combined 36% share of global production.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of dried grapes production, amongst the main producing countries, was attained by India, while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports 2007-2018

In 2018, the amount of dried grapes exported worldwide amounted to 773K tonnes, falling by -4.7% against the previous year. Over the period under review, dried grapes exports continue to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2010 when exports increased by 3.5% y-o-y. Over the period under review, global dried grapes exports attained their maximum at 848K tonnes in 2007; however, from 2008 to 2018, exports failed to regain their momentum.

In value terms, dried grapes exports amounted to $1.7B (IndexBox estimates) in 2018. The total export value increased at an average annual rate of +3.6% from 2007 to 2018; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded over the period under review. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2010 with an increase of 30% year-to-year. Over the period under review, global dried grapes exports reached their peak figure at $2B in 2011; however, from 2012 to 2018, exports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Exports by Country

Turkey represented the key exporter of dried grapes in the world, with the volume of exports reaching 279K tonnes, which was near 36% of total exports in 2018. The U.S. (85K tonnes) occupied the second position in the ranking, followed by Chile (63K tonnes), South Africa (61K tonnes), Uzbekistan (43K tonnes), Iran (42K tonnes) and Argentina (41K tonnes). All these countries together took approx. 43% share of total exports. Afghanistan (26K tonnes), India (23K tonnes), Greece (17K tonnes), China (17K tonnes) and the Netherlands (13K tonnes) followed a long way behind the leaders.

Exports from Turkey increased at an average annual rate of +1.4% from 2007 to 2018. At the same time, Afghanistan (+4.7%), South Africa (+3.7%), India (+3.6%), Argentina (+3.3%) and Uzbekistan (+3.1%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Afghanistan emerged as the fastest-growing exporter in the world, with a CAGR of +4.7% from 2007-2018. The Netherlands and Chile experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, Greece (-2.8%), the U.S. (-3.2%), China (-3.6%) and Iran (-11.4%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. From 2007 to 2018, the share of Turkey, South Africa, Argentina and Uzbekistan increased by +5%, +2.6%, +1.6% and +1.6% percentage points, while the U.S. (-4.7 p.p.) and Iran (-15.2 p.p.) saw their share reduced. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Turkey ($490M), the U.S. ($284M) and Chile ($156M) were the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2018, with a combined 56% share of global exports. These countries were followed by South Africa, Afghanistan, Argentina, Iran, Uzbekistan, Greece, India, the Netherlands and China, which together accounted for a further 36%.

Afghanistan recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to exports, among the main exporting countries over the last eleven years, while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices by Country

In 2018, the average dried grapes export price amounted to $2,145 per tonne, increasing by 17% against the previous year. In general, the export price indicated a resilient increase from 2007 to 2018: its price increased at an average annual rate of +4.5% over the last eleven-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2008 an increase of 26% year-to-year. Over the period under review, the average export prices for dried grapes attained their maximum at $2,351 per tonne in 2011; however, from 2012 to 2018, export prices failed to regain their momentum.

Prices varied noticeably by the country of origin; the country with the highest price was Afghanistan ($3,794 per tonne), while Uzbekistan ($1,236 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Afghanistan, while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports 2007-2018

Global imports stood at 744K tonnes in 2018, declining by -5.9% against the previous year. Overall, dried grapes imports, however, continue to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2010 with an increase of 8.2% against the previous year. The global imports peaked at 851K tonnes in 2016; however, from 2017 to 2018, imports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, dried grapes imports stood at $1.6B (IndexBox estimates) in 2018. The total import value increased at an average annual rate of +3.2% over the period from 2007 to 2018; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2010 with an increase of 27% y-o-y. The global imports peaked at $1.8B in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2018, imports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Imports by Country

The UK (99K tonnes), Germany (77K tonnes) and the Netherlands (55K tonnes) represented roughly 31% of total imports of dried grapes in 2018. It was distantly followed by Japan (35K tonnes), mixing up a 4.8% share of total imports. Kazakhstan (29K tonnes), France (26K tonnes), Brazil (26K tonnes), Russia (24K tonnes), Canada (24K tonnes), Belgium (22K tonnes), Italy (21K tonnes) and Australia (18K tonnes) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of imports, amongst the main importing countries, was attained by Kazakhstan, while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest dried grapes importing markets worldwide were the UK ($199M), Germany ($163M) and Japan ($116M), together accounting for 31% of global imports. The Netherlands, Canada, France, Brazil, Italy, Russia, Australia, Belgium and Kazakhstan lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 29%.

In terms of the main importing countries, Kazakhstan recorded the highest growth rate of imports, over the last eleven-year period, while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices by Country

The average dried grapes import price stood at $2,094 per tonne in 2018, growing by 15% against the previous year. Over the last eleven-year period, it increased at an average annual rate of +3.1%. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2008 when the average import price increased by 23% y-o-y. The global import price peaked at $2,390 per tonne in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2018, import prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably by the country of destination; the country with the highest price was Japan ($3,274 per tonne), while Kazakhstan ($592 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Japan, while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.