Despite Record Exports from Ecuador, Banana Prices Continue to Rise on Robust Demand

July 13th, 2021 IndexBox Leave a comment

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘World – Bananas – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

The demand for bananas remained robust amidst the pandemic. Despite record exports from Ecuador, which remains the world’s largest banana supplier, prices in the largest import markets are rising due to strong demand and local COVID-related imbalances in supply chains. Driven by the growing population, the global banana market could reach 143M tonnes by 2030. The increasing epidemic of the TR4 fungus could reduce the growth potential and accelerate the rise in prices.

Key Trends and Insights

Bananas confidently retain their position as the most sought-after fruit in the world. Consumption in 2020 reached 124M tonnes, which is 6% more than the previous year. The increase in demand for bananas in the context of a growing world population will stimulate a market expansion of up to 143M tonnes by 2030.

During the pandemic, demand for bananas remained high in most countries. According to Eurostat, imports to EU countries rose by 5.6% y-o-y in 2020. Banana imports to the U.S. remained at the same level of the previous year (4.7M tonnes), while imports to China fell by 10% to 1.7M tonnes. Despite this, product consumption in China increased by 2.4% amid an increase in domestic production by 3.4% and a decrease in exports by 38.7%.

Strong demand amid supply chain disruptions during a period of tight constraints led to price increases in 2020 that varied from country to country. Bananas have gone up in price most significantly in Russia. In the first quarter of 2021, prices increased by one and a half times more compared to the previous year due to a combination of factors of stable demand within the country, a weakening of the ruble and a local shortage of supplies from Ecuador. The average annual banana price in the EU rose from $0.88 per kg in 2019 to $0.90 per kg in 2020, and in the U.S. it went from $1.14 per kg in 2019 to $1.22 per kg in 2020.

Ecuador remains the world’s largest banana supplier, accounting for 18.4% of the global export market. Despite labor shortages during a period of tight constraints and disruption to supply chains, the country increased banana exports by 7% y-o-y in 2020, driven by increased U.S. shipments and increased production from expanding acreage.

The threat to the global banana market comes not only from the COVID-19 pandemic, but also from the growing epidemic of the TR4 fungus that affects banana plantations. This blight has been known for a long time, but recently, it has been rapidly spreading to new regions. This creates the risk of a banana shortage in the world market and acceleration of rising prices. The market for organic bananas may be particularly affected, as crop protection chemicals are not permitted in their cultivation. In order to solve the problem, new genetically modified varieties and new means of their protection are being developed, which will lead to a restructuring of the value chains in the banana industry.

Global Banana Production

For the fourth year in a row, the global market recorded growth in production of bananas, which increased by 2% to 120M tonnes in 2020. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.2% from 2012 to 2020. In value terms, banana production rose remarkably to $78.3B in 2020 estimated in export prices.

India (31M tonnes) remains the largest banana producing country worldwide, accounting for 26% of total volume. Moreover, banana production in India exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, China (12M tonnes), threefold. Indonesia (7.5M tonnes) ranked third in terms of total production with a 6.2% share.

From 2012 to 2020, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume in India totaled +2.0%. The remaining producing countries recorded the following average annual rates of production growth: China (+0.5% per year) and Indonesia (+2.4% per year).

Global Banana Imports

In 2020, the volume of bananas imported worldwide rose sharply to 23M tonnes, with an increase of 7.1% against 2019. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +4.5% over the period from 2012 to 2020. In value terms, banana imports amounted to $15.3B in 2020.

In 2020, the U.S. (4.7M tonnes), distantly followed by China (1.7M tonnes), Russia (1.6M tonnes), Germany (1.3M tonnes) and Japan (1.1M tonnes) were the key importers of bananas, together committing 45% of total imports. The following importers – the Netherlands (1,008K tonnes), the UK (978K tonnes), Italy (782K tonnes), France (700K tonnes), Belgium (676K tonnes), Canada (591K tonnes), Poland (559K tonnes) and Argentina (439K tonnes) – together made up 25% of total imports.

In value terms, the U.S. ($2.5B) constitutes the largest market for imported bananas worldwide, comprising 17% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by Russia ($1.2B), with a 7.5% share of global imports.

Source: IndexBox Platform

Archives, Global Trade Daily, Imports/Exports

Peru and Mexico Challenge to Dominate the $1.3B American Blueberry and Cranberry Imports

July 7th, 2021 IndexBox Leave a comment

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘U.S. – Blueberries And Cranberries – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

Blueberry and cranberry imports in the U.S. remain robust thanks to strong consumer demand, even against the limitations for cafes and restaurants. Exporters from Peru and Mexico both enjoy skyrocketing growth in terms of supplies to the American market over the last five years, including 2020. Canadian and Chilean producers, as well as domestic growers, have to put on steam to benefit from future market growth.

Imports into the U.S.

Blueberry and cranberry imports to the U.S. soared to $1.4B (IndexBox estimates) in 2020. Overall, the value of imports posted solid gains, following that of the import volume.

In physical terms, the U.S. recorded growth in supplies from abroad of blueberries and cranberries, which increased by 13% to 273K tonnes in 2020. Over the period under review, total imports indicated a strong expansion from 2012 to 2020: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +7.2% over the last eight-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2020 figures, imports increased by +52.6% against 2017 indices.

Over the period under review, imports reached the maximum in 2020 and are expected to retain growth in years to come. The high rate of vaccination opens the light for relief from the pandemic. Together with the increasing population and recovering incomes, it secures the demand for blueberries and cranberries will remain strong in the medium term. The American market thus becomes even more attractive for suppliers from abroad and requires the domestic growers to struggle for their market position.

Imports by Country

Peru (84K tonnes), Canada (78K tonnes) and Chile (52K tonnes) were the main suppliers of blueberry and cranberry imports to the U.S., together accounting for 79% of total imports.

From 2007 to 2020, the biggest increases were in the supplies from Peru and Mexico, thanks to skyrocketing volumes over the last five years. Purchases for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Peru ($554M), Mexico ($364M) and Chile ($289M) appeared to be the largest blueberry and cranberry suppliers to the U.S., together comprising 88% of total imports.

Import Prices by Country

In 2020, the average blueberry and cranberry import price amounted to $5,030 per tonne, picking up by 13% against the previous year. Over the last thirteen years, it increased at an average annual rate of +1.3%. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2008 when the average import price increased by 29% against the previous year. As a result, import prices attained the peak level of $5,481 per tonne. From 2009 to 2020, the growth in terms of the average import prices failed to regain momentum.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major supplying countries. In 2020, the country with the highest price was Mexico ($7,085 per tonne), while the price for Canada ($1,670 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

Source: IndexBox Platform

Archives, EU Trade, Global Trade Daily

Spain’s Peach Export Prices Surge on Lower Yields but Key Markets Still Remain Secure

July 6th, 2021 IndexBox Leave a comment

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘Spain – Peaches And Nectarines – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

Spain remains the largest peach and nectarine exporter worldwide, with a share of 34% in terms of the global volume. In 2020, the harvest was damaged by frosts, which led to a reduction of supplies. Export prices thus ramped up and are to remain high until yields stabilize. Despite this, Spain’s position on the key foreign markets in Germany and France remained secure. The year 2021 remains uneven in terms of future yield, which strengthens the risk that buyers will seek cheaper alternatives.

Exports from Spain

Peach and nectarine exports from Spain reduced rapidly to 654K tonnes in 2020, falling by -21.1% against 2019 figures. This was largely attributed to a harvest loss due to frosts in 2020. In value terms, peach and nectarine exports expanded remarkably to $971M (IndexBox estimates) in 2020.

Exports by Country

Germany (208K tonnes), France (112K tonnes) and Italy (96K tonnes) were the main destinations of peach and nectarine exports from Spain, with a combined 64% share of total exports. These countries were followed by the UK, Portugal, Poland, the Netherlands, Belgium and Switzerland, which together accounted for a further 25%.

In value terms, Germany ($332M) remains the key foreign market for peach and nectarine exports from Spain, comprising 34% of total exports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by France ($156M), with a 16% share of total exports. It was followed by Italy, with a 12% share.

From 2007 to 2020, the average annual growth rate of value to Germany amounted to +8.1%. Exports to the other major destinations recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: France (+1.5% per year) and Italy (+4.7% per year).

Despite rising prices, Spanish peaches and nectarines hold near 80% in terms of German imports and over 90% in French imports. In 2021, there is a risk that adverse weather conditions may continue, which could push buyers to seek new countries for sourcing the product.

Export Prices

In 2020, the average peach and nectarine export price amounted to $1,484 per tonne, growing by 43% against the previous year. This resulted from a shortage in supplies due to poor yields. As a result, export price attained the peak level and is may keep at this level if weather conditions remain adverse in 2021.

Prices varied noticeably by the country of destination; the country with the highest price was Switzerland ($2,086 per tonne), while the average price for exports to Portugal ($1,053 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

Source: IndexBox Platform

Archives, Global Trade Daily, Imports/Exports

China Ramps Up Supplies and Drives Out Competitors from the Philippine Apple Market

July 2nd, 2021 IndexBox Leave a comment

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘China – Apple – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

In 2020, apple exports from China increased by 22% to 1.2M tonnes, thanks to the shipments to the Philippines have doubled. China’s share in the Philippine apple imports reached 92.1%. Apart from the Philippines, the main export destinations for China were Myanmar, Bangladesh, Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, Nepal, Hong Kong (SAR) and Singapore.

Apple Exports from China

In 2020, after two years of decline, there was significant growth in shipments abroad of apples, when their volume increased by 22% to 1.2M tonnes. Over the period under review, total exports indicated a tangible increase from 2012 to 2020: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +4.7% over the last eight-year period. In value terms, apple exports skyrocketed to $1.4B in 2020. Overall, exports enjoyed a prominent expansion.

Myanmar (183K tonnes), Bangladesh (179K tonnes) and the Philippines (168K tonnes) were the main destinations of apple exports from China, with a combined 45% share of total exports. These countries were followed by Viet Nam, Thailand, Indonesia and Nepal, which together accounted for a further 40%.

2020 saw a twofold increase in apple supplies from China to the Philippines. China gained its share in the Philippine apple market to reach 92.1% and was followed by the U.S. (4.1%) and New Zealand (3.1%).

From 2012 to 2020, the most notable growth rate in terms of shipments, amongst the main countries of destination, was attained by Viet Nam, while exports for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest markets for apple exported from China were Viet Nam ($322M), the Philippines ($213M) and Thailand ($213M), together accounting for 52% of total exports.

The average apple export price stood at $1,220 per tonne in 2020, waning by -4.9% against the previous year. In general, export price indicated a strong increase from 2012 to 2020: its price increased at an average annual rate of +5.0% over the last eight years. From 2012 to 2020, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was recorded for supplies to Viet Nam, while the prices for the other major destinations experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Platform

Archives, Global Trade Daily, Imports/Exports

Spain Remains the Export Leader in the Global Strawberry Market

June 25th, 2021 IndexBox Leave a comment

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘Spain – Strawberries – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

Due to the Covid-related restrictions, there was a 2.3% drop in strawberry exports from Spain in 2020. Despite this, Spain keeps its position as an export leader in the global strawberry market. Most Spanish strawberries are marketed in Germany, the UK, France, and other European countries.

Exports from Spain

Strawberry exports from Spain declined to 287K tonnes in 2020, which is down by -2.3% against the year before. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.5% over the period from 2007 to 2020. Spain comprises near 33% of the global strawberry exports in physical terms.

In value terms, strawberry exports stood at $671M in 2020. The total export value increased at an average annual rate of +2.7% from 2007 to 2020. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2008 when exports increased by 23% y-o-y. Exports peaked at $704M in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2020, exports failed to regain momentum.

Germany (100K tonnes) was the main destination for strawberry exports from Spain, with a 35% share of total exports. Moreover, strawberry exports to Germany exceeded the volume sent to the second major destination, the UK (41K tonnes), twofold. The third position in this ranking was occupied by France (40K tonnes), with a 14% share.

From 2007 to 2020, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume to Germany totaled +4.8%. Exports to the other major destinations recorded the following average annual rates of export growth: the UK (+5.9% per year) and France (-4.3% per year).

In value terms, the largest markets for strawberry exported from Spain were Germany ($220M), the UK ($116M) and France ($82M), with a combined 62% share of total exports. Italy, the Netherlands, Portugal, Poland and Belgium lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 23%.

The average strawberry export price stood at $2,339 per tonne in 2020 (IndexBox estimates), growing by 3% against the previous year. In general, the export price saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2008 when the average export price increased by 17% y-o-y. The export price peaked at $2,678 per tonne in 2011; however, from 2012 to 2020, export prices remained at a lower figure.

Average prices varied somewhat for the major overseas markets. In 2020, the countries with the highest prices were the UK ($2,859 per tonne) and Poland ($2,507 per tonne), while the average price for exports to Italy ($2,005 per tonne) and Belgium ($2,028 per tonne) were amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2020, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was recorded for supplies to Poland, while the prices for the other major destinations experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Platform

Archives, Global Trade Daily, News

Citrus Market Emerges Relatively Unscathed from the Covid Crisis

May 2nd, 2021 IndexBox Leave a comment

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘World – Citrus Fruit – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

Except for lemons and limes, the production of major types of citrus fruits grew in 2020 thanks to good weather conditions in most producing regions. Citrus fruit exports and demand indicated gains in all the categories considered.