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Portugal and Spain Emerge as the Fastest-Growing Exporters in the European Cabbage Market

cabbage

Portugal and Spain Emerge as the Fastest-Growing Exporters in the European Cabbage Market

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘EU – Cabbage And Other Brassicas – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

The EU cabbage market rose significantly to $3.1B in 2019, increasing by 7.7% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers’ margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). In general, consumption saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The level of consumption peaked at $3.1B in 2013; afterward, it flattened through to 2019.

Consumption by Country

The countries with the highest volumes of cabbage consumption in 2019 were Romania (1.1M tonnes), Poland (924K tonnes), and Germany (693K tonnes), with a combined 59% share of total consumption. These countries were followed by the UK, Italy, France, Spain, Belgium, Portugal, Greece, Austria, and the Czech Republic, which together accounted for a further 28%.

From 2013 to 2019, the biggest increases were in Spain, while cabbage consumption for the other leaders experienced mixed trends in the consumption figures.

In value terms, Poland ($510M), Germany ($438M) and Romania ($425M) constituted the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2019, together accounting for 45% of the total market.

In 2019, the highest levels of cabbage per capita consumption was registered in Romania (57 kg per person), followed by Poland (24 kg per person), Portugal (10 kg per person) and Belgium (9.60 kg per person), while the world average per capita consumption of cabbage was estimated at 9 kg per person.

Production in the EU

In 2019, the production of cabbage and other brassicas decreased by -1.3% to 4.6M tonnes, falling for the second year in a row after two years of growth. In general, production showed a mild curtailment. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2014 with an increase of 4.2% y-o-y. As a result, production reached a peak volume of 5.3M tonnes. From 2015 to 2019, production growth remained at a somewhat lower figure. The general negative trend in terms output was largely conditioned by a mild decline of the harvested area and a relatively flat trend pattern in yield figures.

Production by Country

The countries with the highest volumes of cabbage production in 2019 were Romania (1.1M tonnes), Poland (955K tonnes), and Germany (591K tonnes), with a combined 58% share of total production. Italy, the UK, Spain, the Netherlands, France, Portugal, Belgium, and Greece lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 31%.

From 2013 to 2019, the most notable rate of growth in terms of cabbage production, amongst the main producing countries, was attained by Spain, while cabbage production for the other leaders experienced a decline in the production figures.

Harvested Area and Yield in the EU

The cabbage harvested area fell to 156K ha in 2019, standing approx. the year before. In general, the harvested area showed a mild descent. The level of harvested area peaked at 166K ha in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2019, it remained at a lower figure.

The average cabbage yield amounted to 29 tonnes per ha in 2019, almost unchanged from the year before. In general, the yield, however, recorded a relatively flat trend pattern.

Exports in the EU

In 2019, the amount of cabbage and other brassicas exported in the European Union expanded slightly to 656K tonnes, growing by 2.5% compared with 2018 figures. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2014 when exports increased by 7.1% y-o-y. As a result, exports attained the peak of 743K tonnes. From 2015 to 2019, the growth exports remained at a somewhat lower figure. In value terms, cabbage exports expanded sharply to $613M (IndexBox estimates) in 2019.

Exports by Country

The Netherlands represented the major exporting country with an export of around 210K tonnes, which reached 32% of total exports. Spain (99K tonnes) occupied a 15% share (based on tonnes) of total exports, which put it in second place, followed by Germany (12%), Italy (11%), Poland (8.9%), Belgium (7.3%) and Portugal (5.3%).

The Netherlands experienced a relatively flat trend pattern with regard to the volume of exports of cabbage and other brassicas. At the same time, Portugal (+9.0%), Spain (+6.2%), Belgium (+3.9%), and Italy (+3.3%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Portugal emerged as the fastest-growing cabbage exporter in the European Union, with a CAGR of +9.0% from 2013-2019. By contrast, Germany (-2.4%) and Poland (-13.2%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period.

In value terms, the Netherlands ($224M) remains the largest cabbage supplier in the European Union, comprising 37% of total exports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by Spain ($107M), with a 17% share of total exports. It was followed by Italy, with a 15% share.

Export Prices by Country

The cabbage export price in the European Union stood at $934 per tonne in 2019, rising by 9.5% against the previous year. Over the period from 2013 to 2019, it increased at an average annual rate of +3.4%. As a result, export price attained the peak level and is likely to continue growing in the immediate term.

Prices varied noticeably by the country of origin; the country with the highest price was Italy ($1,321 per tonne), while Poland ($609 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2019, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Germany, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform

pistachios

PISTACHIOS: THE QUIRKS OF AGRICULTURAL TRADE IN A NUTSHELL

Disappearing Red Pistachios

If you’re an American over a certain age, you might recall the experience of staining your fingers while prying open red pistachios. They were a somewhat exotic treat, put out on occasion in a special bowl. That might seem strange to younger Americans who are only familiar with the natural tan pistachios that are ubiquitous as a post-workout food and snack.

The different associations are the result of a dramatic shift in where pistachios were produced and shipped after 1979 when the United States imposed sanctions against Iran in response to the Iran Hostage Crisis involving the taking of more than 50 American diplomats.

Mr. Whitehouse Leaves Washington

Pistachios are a biblical fruit, renowned as a court favorite of the Persian Queen of Sheba, a frequent traveler on the Silk Road and Mediterranean maritime routes. Iran has cultivated them for thousands of years, though large scale commercial production in Iran began just over one hundred years ago. American production is a much more recent phenomenon.

In 1929, American botanist William Whitehouse explored Persia on behalf of the U.S. Department of Agriculture, scooping up pistachio samples from farms located in modern day Iran. He returned in 1930 and planted test plots. When the trees matured a decade later, only one proved fruitful – Whitehouse named it Kerman after a city in Iran’s Rafsanjan central plateau. Pistachio trees can live hundreds of years and take their time to reach peak production – around twenty years.

Ironically, the U.S. pistachio industry – born from a single Iranian seed – matured in the 1970s precisely at the moment Iran’s trade with the United States, including of pistachios in dyed-red shells, came to a crashing halt.

The tale of U.S.-Iran pistachio trade has four plotlines that dramatize the broader quirks of global agricultural trade.

Plotline 1:

Extreme Quantitative Restrictions – A Trade Embargo

For most of history, Iran has been the world’s biggest source of pistachios. They are Iran’s most significant agricultural export by volume and value. Iran was the biggest supplier to the United States, but damaged relations following the Islamic Revolution of 1979 changed that. U.S. sanctions imposed since that time have a complex and layered history but have almost always involved a complete embargo on Iranian exports to the United States.

Following the lifting of the initial embargo in 1981, Iran’s food exports to the United States rebounded somewhat before the embargo was reintroduced in 1987. In an easing of sanctions in 2000, very modest amounts of foods from Iran were imported through Treasury Department-issued licenses. By 2010, imports of foods from Iran were again fully prohibited. The 2015 Iran Nuclear Deal would have enabled Iran to export pistachios and other agricultural products and lifted restrictions on financing, which Iran hoped would inject much needed capital investment in the agricultural sector. U.S. withdrawal of the Nuclear Deal in May 2018 saw a return to strict U.S. sanctions on imports from Iran.

Milestones in US-Iran competition in global pistachio trade

Plot Line 2:

Classic Farm Subsidies

When sanctions were first imposed in 1979, U.S. pistachio production was 7,700 metric tons, up quite substantially from the first U.S. commercial crop in 1976 of just 680 metric tons. In comparison, Iran had averaged 19,504 metric tons per year in the decade leading up to sanctions, but peaked in 1978 at nearly 59,874 metric tons. At the time, Iran accounted for nearly 100 percent of U.S. imported pistachio nuts. After falling off during the embargo, Iran renewed exports when the embargo was lifted in the early 1980s.

In March 1986, the Commerce Department found in favor of a U.S. industry petition that complained the Iranian government was subsidizing pistachio production. Iran (as many developing countries do) was providing supports to its agricultural producers by subsidizing the cost of key inputs such as fertilizer, chemicals, seeds, water and energy and by guaranteeing a minimum price for their output. The investigation resulted in a 99.5 percent countervailing duty on in-shell pistachios and a 318 percent duty on roasted pistachios.

Because Iran was not a signatory to the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) and is not a WTO member (the United States has repeatedly blocked its application for accession), no injury determination was required.

US tariffs on pistachios

Plot Line 3:

“Less Than Fair Value”

In a parallel 1986 investigation, the U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC) found that the volume of raw in-shell pistachios imported from Iran had increased significantly after the embargo was lifted in 1981. U.S. producers had secured 93.2 percent of the U.S. market in 1980, which was about 12.5 million pounds. By 1985, the overall size of the U.S. market had swelled to 61 million pounds, and Iran’s share had grown to 42.3 percent, accounting for almost 100 percent of all imports.

At the same time, the unit value of imports from Iran (import price) fell by around half. The USITC determined that raw in-shell pistachios imported from Iran were being sold at “less than fair market value” (or, being “dumped”) in the U.S. market, causing material injury to the U.S. industry. The Commerce Department calculated an offset in the form of a 241 percent antidumping duty, which would be applied in additional to the 99.5 percent countervailing duty.

In years of embargo, the duties were irrelevant and thus only two reviews have since been conducted to determine whether the duties should remain in place. In both 2005 and more recently in 2017, the USITC determined they should.

Plot Line 4:

Developed v. Developing Country Producers

According to the Iran Pistachio Association (IPA), Iran has around 150,000 farmers, but more than 70 percent of the production is small-scale on orchards of 2 hectares or less. In a “good” year, annual pistachio production capacity reaches 280,000 metric tons in Iran, but harvesting is inefficient. Pistachios are picked by hand from fallen clusters, their hulls removed by hand, and the nuts graded manually. Inadequate water management undercuts Iranian production, but when Iran’s yield is strong, the country’s pistachio exporters hold a price and geographic advantage. And IPA says they are competitive globally based on strong demand for the wide variety of Iranian pistachio cultivars with different flavor profiles and a higher kernel to in-shell ratio.

In contrast, the United States has some 950 growers, mainly in California, whose mechanized production is highly efficient, yielding a whopping 487,500 metric tons over the 2018-19 season (though output is cyclical and weather-dependent so yields may be down over 30 percent this year). Achievements in increased outputs made during a period when the U.S. market was closed to Iran, its only major competitor, enabled the U.S. industry to reach a position where it could both serve the domestic market and challenge Iran for market share all over the world. Iran has barely exported any pistachios to the United States since 1986 but it remains a contender in key third markets.

US leads pistachio production

Combined, the United States and Iran account for more than 70 percent of global exports of pistachios. Iran tends to hold the top spot in the Middle East, India, and Eastern Europe and holds an edge in developing country markets. The key battlegrounds in the U.S.-Iran pistachio wars are Western Europe and China where demand is strong and growing.

American pistachio growers fretted when the Trump administration raised tariffs on products from China. When China retaliated, raising the tariff on U.S. pistachios from five to as high as 55 percent, that created an opportunity for China to substitute Iranian pistachios. However, Iran ultimately suffered a bad crop year and it’s not clear whether China collected the tariffs, so sales of U.S. pistachios in China actually increased.

Not a Happy or Tragic Ending

The U.S. pistachio industry was concerned about the potential for renewed competition from Iran under the 2015 nuclear deal that eased sanctions. Their fears were allayed when the USITC voted to maintain the 1986 legacy of prohibitive tariffs. No matter, the Trump administration has strengthened sanctions and the embargo remains.

In the end, global demand for pistachios is higher than production, leaving room for both American and Iranian producers to find a market for all they can grow.

In an NPR interview four years ago, Brian Blackwell, a grower from Tulare County, CA wasn’t concerned about the reentry of Iranian pistachios in the U.S. market and explained the nature of global commodity markets this way: “This is a global marketplace nowadays. So, if Iran brought a million pounds of pistachios into the United States, that just means there’s a million pounds that didn’t get sold in China or Europe. U.S. pistachios could fill that market.”

_______________________________________________________________

Andrea Durkin is the Editor-in-Chief of TradeVistas and Founder of Sparkplug, LLC. Ms. Durkin previously served as a U.S. Government trade negotiator and has proudly taught international trade policy and negotiations for the last fifteen years as an Adjunct Professor at Georgetown University’s Master of Science in Foreign Service program.

This article originally appeared on TradeVistas.org. Republished with permission.

peach

African Peach and Nectarine Market – Egypt to Dominate Production and Trade in 2019

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘Africa – Peaches And Nectarines – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

The revenue of the peach and nectarine market in Africa amounted to $1.7B in 2018, therefore, remained relatively stable against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers’ margins, which will be included in the final consumer price).

The total market indicated a strong growth from 2008 to 2018: its value increased at an average annual rate of +2.9% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period.

Based on 2018 figures, the peach and nectarine consumption increased by +32.3% against 2014 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017, with an increase of 23% against the previous year. In that year, the peach and nectarine market reached its peak level of $1.7B, leveling off in the following year.

Production in Africa

The peach and nectarine production amounted to 1.2M tonnes in 2018, going up by 2.5% against the previous year. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.9% from 2008 to 2018; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being observed in certain years. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2017, with an increase of 9.9% against the previous year. Over the period under review, peach and nectarine production attained its maximum volume in 2018 and is expected to retain its growth in the immediate term. The general positive trend in terms of peach and nectarine output was largely conditioned by a mild expansion of the harvested area and a moderate growth in yield figures.

Exports in Africa

In 2018, exports of peaches and nectarines in Africa totaled 59K tonnes, going down by -14.5% against the previous year. In general, peach and nectarine exports continue to indicate a drastic descent. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2016, with an increase of 9.7% against the previous year. The volume of exports peaked at 99K tonnes in 2008; however, from 2009 to 2018, exports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, peach and nectarine exports amounted to $100M (IndexBox estimates) in 2018. The total export value increased at an average annual rate of +2.8% over the period from 2008 to 2018; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded over the period under review. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2017, with an increase of 20% year-to-year. In that year, peach and nectarine exports attained their peak of $110M, and then declined slightly in the following year.

Exports by Country

In 2018, South Africa (18K tonnes) and Egypt (14K tonnes) represented the main exporters of peaches and nectarines in the region, together creating 55% of total exports. Guinea (7.9K tonnes) held a 13% share (based on tonnes) of total exports, which put it in second place, followed by Morocco (11%), Tunisia (8.9%) and Tanzania (7.4%). Zambia (2.3K tonnes) held a relatively small share of total exports.

From 2008 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of exports, amongst the main exporting countries, was attained by Tanzania (+228.4% per year), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, South Africa ($38M) remains the largest peach and nectarine supplier in Africa, comprising 38% of total peach and nectarine exports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by Egypt ($15M), with a 15% share of total exports. It was followed by Guinea, with a 12% share.

Export Prices by Country

The peach and nectarine export price in Africa stood at $1,675 per tonne in 2018, jumping by 5.9% against the previous year. The export price indicated a strong increase from 2008 to 2018: its price increased at an average annual rate of +8.2% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2018 figures, the peach and nectarine export price increased by +120.3% against 2008 indices.

Export prices varied noticeably by the country of origin; the country with the highest export price was Zambia ($4,702 per tonne), while Egypt ($1,034 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2008 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of export prices was attained by Guinea, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports in Africa

In 2018, approx. 54K tonnes of peaches and nectarines were imported in Africa; rising by 72% against the previous year.

In value terms, peach and nectarine imports totaled $41M (IndexBox estimates) in 2018. In general, peach and nectarine imports continue to indicate a prominent expansion. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013, with an increase of 43% against the previous year. Over the period under review, peach and nectarine imports reached their peak figure at $43M in 2015; however, from 2016 to 2018, imports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Imports by Country

In 2018, Egypt (29K tonnes) represented the key importer for peaches and nectarines, comprising 53% of total imports. Algeria (17K tonnes) took the second position in the ranking, distantly followed by Libya (2.6K tonnes) and South Africa (2.6K tonnes). All these countries together held approx. 40% share of total imports.

From 2008 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of imports, amongst the main importing countries, was attained by Algeria, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest peach and nectarine importing markets in Africa were Algeria ($19M), Egypt ($12M) and South Africa ($3.8M), with a combined 83% share of total imports.

Import Prices by Country

The peach and nectarine import price in Africa stood at $758 per tonne in 2018, reducing by -28.1% against the previous year. Overall, the peach and nectarine import price continues to indicate a significant descent. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2017 when the import price increased by 56% y-o-y. Over the period under review, the import prices for peaches and nectarines reached their maximum at $1,098 per tonne in 2011; however, from 2012 to 2018, import prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average import prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2018, the country with the highest import price was South Africa ($1,479 per tonne), while Egypt ($401 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2008 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of import prices was attained by Libya, while the other leaders experienced a decline in the import price figures.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform

EU Rusk And Toasted Bread Market | Tesco PLC, Carrefour S.A., Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V., Rallye S.A.

IndexBox has just published a new report, the EU – Rusks, Toasted Bread And Similar Toasted Products – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends And Insights. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

The revenue of the toasted bread market in the European Union amounted to $2.8B in 2017, surging by 11% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers’ margins, which will be included in the final consumer price).

The market value increased at an average annual rate of +4.2% over the period from 2007 to 2017; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2008, when it surged by 23% y-o-y. The level of toasted bread consumption peaked at $2.9B in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2017, consumption stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Production in the EU

In 2017, the amount of rusks, toasted bread and similar toasted products produced in the European Union totaled 1M tonnes, rising by 9.1% against the previous year. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.7% from 2007 to 2017; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period.

Exports in the EU

In 2017, approx. 157K tonnes of rusks, toasted bread and similar toasted products were exported in the European Union; flattening at the previous year. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.2% over the period from 2007 to 2017; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations being recorded over the period under review.

In value terms, toasted bread exports stood at $420M (IndexBox estimates) in 2017. The total export value increased at an average annual rate of +2.4% from 2007 to 2017; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Over the period under review, toasted bread exports attained their maximum at $477M in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2017, exports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Exports by Country

Italy (28K tonnes), Spain (20K tonnes), the Netherlands (18K tonnes), France (13K tonnes), Bulgaria (10K tonnes), Portugal (8.7K tonnes), Sweden (8.3K tonnes), Finland (7.5K tonnes), the UK (7.1K tonnes), Belgium (6.4K tonnes), Germany (5.8K tonnes) and Lithuania (5.6K tonnes) represented roughly 88% of total exports of rusks, toasted bread and similar toasted products in 2017.

From 2007 to 2017, the most notable rate of growth in terms of exports, amongst the main exporting countries, was attained by Lithuania, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest toasted bread markets worldwide were Italy ($88M), the Netherlands ($50M) and Spain ($41M), together comprising 43% of total exports. France, Bulgaria, Sweden, Finland, Portugal, Germany, Belgium, the UK and Lithuania lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 46%.

Export Prices by Country

In 2017, the toasted bread export price in the European Union amounted to $2.7 per kg, going up by 2.8% against the previous year. The the toasted bread export price continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2008, when the export price increased by 12% against the previous year. The level of export price peaked at $2,962 per tonne in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2017, export prices remained at a lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average export prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2017, the country with the highest export price was Sweden ($3,363 per tonne), while Lithuania ($705 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2017, the most notable rate of growth in terms of export prices was attained by the Netherlands, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports in the EU

In 2017, toasted bread imports in the European Union stood at 177K tonnes, approximately mirroring the previous year. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.4% over the period from 2007 to 2017; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, toasted bread imports totaled $391M (IndexBox estimates) in 2017. The total import value increased at an average annual rate of +1.7% from 2007 to 2017; however, the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being observed throughout the analyzed period. Over the period under review, toasted bread imports attained their maximum at $413M in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2017, imports remained at a lower figure.

Imports by Country

In 2017, France (37K tonnes) and Belgium (27K tonnes) were the largest importers of rusks, toasted bread and similar toasted products in the globe, together creating 36% of total imports. It was distantly followed by Spain (15K tonnes), Germany (15K tonnes), Italy (12K tonnes) and the Netherlands (8.7K tonnes), together creating 28% share of total imports. The following importers – the UK (7.8K tonnes), Austria (7.3K tonnes), Portugal (5.7K tonnes), Romania (5.3K tonnes), Ireland (4.2K tonnes) and Greece (4.2K tonnes) together made up 20% of total imports.

From 2007 to 2017, the most notable rate of growth in terms of imports, amongst the main importing countries, was attained by Austria, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, France ($80M), Belgium ($41M) and Spain ($38M) constituted the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2017, with a combined 41% share of total imports. Germany, the UK, the Netherlands, Italy, Austria, Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Romania lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 42%.

Import Prices by Country

The toasted bread import price in the European Union stood at $2.2 per kg in 2017, going up by 4.7% against the previous year. The the toasted bread import price continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2008, when it surged by 17% year-to-year. In that year, the import prices for rusks, toasted bread and similar toasted products attained their peak level of $2.8 per kg. From 2009 to 2017, the growth in terms of the import prices for rusks, toasted bread and similar toasted products failed to regain its momentum.

Import prices varied noticeably by the country of destination; the country with the highest import price was the UK ($3,873 per tonne), while Belgium ($1,508 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2017, the most notable rate of growth in terms of import prices was attained by the UK, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform