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Dairy Spread Market in the EU – Key Insights

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Dairy Spread Market in the EU – Key Insights

IndexBox has just published a new report, the EU – Dairy Spreads – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends And Insights. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

The revenue of the dairy spread market in the European Union amounted to $827M in 2017, surging by 18% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers’ margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +1.9% from 2007 to 2017; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations being recorded over the period under review. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017, when it surged by 18% y-o-y. In that year, the dairy spread market attained its peak level, and is likely to continue its growth in the immediate term.

Production in the EU

In 2017, approx. 200K tonnes of dairy spreads were produced in the European Union; increasing by 9.1% against the previous year. The dairy spread production continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern.

Dairy Spread Exports

Exports in the EU

In 2017, exports of dairy spreads in the European Union stood at 31K tonnes, flattening at the previous year. The dairy spread exports continue to indicate a perceptible curtailment.

In value terms, dairy spread exports stood at $138M (IndexBox estimates) in 2017. The dairy spread exports continue to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. In that year, dairy spread exports reached their peak of $204M. From 2009 to 2017, the growth of dairy spread exports remained at a somewhat lower figure.

Exports by Country

Belgium was the main exporting countries with an export of about 9.5K tonnes, which amounted to 31% of total exports. Poland (4.5K tonnes) ranks second in terms of the global exports with a 15% share, followed by the UK (9.2%), Germany (8.4%), France (8.2%), Ireland (8%), Croatia (6.7%) and the Netherlands (4.8%).

Exports from Belgium decreased at an average annual rate of -2.0% from 2007 to 2017. At the same time, Poland (+31.2%), Croatia (+13.1%), the Netherlands (+5.5%) and France (+5.1%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Poland emerged as the fastest growing exporter in the European Union, with a CAGR of +31.2% from 2007-2017. Germany experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, Ireland (-4.7%) and the UK (-17.2%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. From 2007 to 2017, the share of the UK, Belgium and Ireland increased by 52%, 7.1% and 5% percentage points, while the Netherlands (-2%), France (-3.2%), Croatia (-4.8%) and Poland (-13.7%) saw their share reduced. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Belgium ($47M) remains the largest dairy spread supplier in the European Union, comprising 34% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by Germany ($17M), with a 12% share of global exports. It was followed by Poland, with a 9.3% share.

Export Prices by Country

The dairy spread export price in the European Union stood at $4.5 per kg in 2017, going up by 26% against the previous year. Over the period from 2007 to 2017, it increased at an average annual rate of +3.7%.

There were significant differences in the average export prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2017, the country with the highest export price was Germany ($6.5 per kg), while the UK ($2.6 per kg) was amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2017, the most notable rate of growth in terms of export prices was attained by the Netherlands (+4.9% per year), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Dairy Spread Imports

Imports in the EU

The imports totaled 31K tonnes in 2017, waning by -30.2% against the previous year. The dairy spread imports continue to indicate an abrupt decrease. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2015, when the imports increased by 18% against the previous year. In that year, dairy spread imports reached their peak of 54K tonnes. From 2016 to 2017, the growth of dairy spread imports failed to regain its momentum.

In value terms, dairy spread imports amounted to $120M (IndexBox estimates) in 2017. The dairy spread imports continue to indicate a slight contraction. Over the period under review, dairy spread imports attained their maximum at $167M in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2017, imports remained at a lower figure.

Imports by Country

In 2017, the UK (7.1K tonnes), distantly followed by Germany (4.6K tonnes), France (2.6K tonnes), Portugal (2.6K tonnes), Slovakia (2.1K tonnes), the Netherlands (1.7K tonnes), Spain (1.5K tonnes) and the Czech Republic (1.4K tonnes) represented the main importers of dairy spreads, together mixed up 77% of total imports. The following importers – Greece (1.3K tonnes), Belgium (1.1K tonnes), Austria (726 tonnes) and Romania (651 tonnes) together made up 12% of total imports.

From 2007 to 2017, the most notable rate of growth in terms of imports, amongst the main importing countries, was attained by the Netherlands (+43.7% per year), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the UK ($28M), Germany ($17M) and France ($13M) constituted the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2017, with a combined 48% share of total imports. These countries were followed by Portugal, Spain, Belgium, Austria, Slovakia, Greece, the Czech Republic, the Netherlands and Romania, which together accounted for a further 41%.

Import Prices by Country

In 2017, the dairy spread import price in the European Union amounted to $3.9 per kg, picking up by 15% against the previous year. Over the last decade, it increased at an average annual rate of +3.6%.

Import prices varied noticeably by the country of destination; the country with the highest import price was Austria ($7.3 per kg), while the Netherlands ($2.2 per kg) was amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2017, the most notable rate of growth in terms of import prices was attained by France (+9.2% per year), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform

Dairy Groups Demand Greater Market Access

Washington, DC – Two major US dairy industry groups are saying they will oppose any transpacific trade pact if Japan and Canada “continue to limit their markets to increased US dairy exports.”

Japan and Canada “are dragging their feet…and US negotiators must insist on “meaningful dairy market access,” the National Milk Producers Federation and the US Dairy Export Council said in a recent letter to US Trade Representative, Michael Froman and Secretary of Agriculture, Tom Vilsack.

The two industry groups said Canada “would probably be guided by Japan in deciding on any changes to its dairy market access” and that any negotiations to forge the Transpacific Partnership (TTP) would have to address New Zealand government programs that are seen to benefit Fonterra, the world’s biggest dairy exporter that controls nearly a third of global dairy trade.

“Our support for TPP is not unconditional,” said the letter, signed by 39 US dairy companies and cooperatives.

“The elements cited here, which largely remain unresolved, must be concluded in a positive manner or our industry will find it difficult to support the final agreement.”

The TPP’s stated goal is to eliminate tariffs and other barriers to goods and services trade. USTR Michael Froman said after the Singapore round of TPP talks in May that the US “is pressing for tariffs to be eliminated to the maximum extent possible.”

A spokesman for Froman said the US “had made it clear to trading partners that it expected the final TPP agreement to reflect the ambitious goals all countries signed up to.”

Like all exporters, he added, “America’s dairy farmers have a lot to gain through the Trans-Pacific Partnership and we are working hard to unlock opportunities for them throughout the Asia-Pacific region.”

The TPP would consist of 12 nations that account for two-fifths of the world economy and a third of global trade.

07/02/2014